[2009.2.19] The second derivative may be turning positive 二阶导数或将为正

America’s economy
美国经济

The second derivative may be turning positive
二阶导数或将为正

Feb 19th 2009 | WASHINGTON, DC
From The Economist print edition

When the going gets tough, the tough get their maths books out
当经济形势越来越糟，强硬乐观派则搬出了数学

MANY of the diehard optimists on Wall Street have been beaten to a pulp by now, but those still standing have fallen back on a nifty bit of calculus. The second derivative, they say, is turning positive. That means that although the economy is spiralling down, it is doing so more slowly.

华尔街许多坚决的乐观人士现已溃不成形，但是那些仍旧保持乐观的人开始伶巧地耍起了微积分。他们说，二阶导数正在趋正，意思是：尽管经济仍在下滑，但是下滑的速度减缓了。

There are a few bits of data to back up this assertion. Retail sales rose by 1% in January from December, the first monthly increase since June. Car sales fell in January but were stable to individual buyers, if not to corporate fleets. The economy may shrink at a slightly lower rate in the first quarter than it did in the fourth (in part because fourth-quarter growth is likely to be revised to a steeper drop than the first annualised estimate of 3.8%). An index compiled by JPMorgan Chase finds that although economic news remains on balance worse than expected, the margin of awfulness has shrunk a bit; the firm’s analysts have marginally trimmed the risk of “a mini-depression”.

有一些数据支持这个主张。从去年12月至今年1月，零售销售额上涨了1%，这是自去年6月以来首次出现月度上涨。虽然1月份汽车销量有所下滑，如果说对企业的销售不稳定，但对个人的汽车销售则很稳定。今年第一季度的经济收缩力度相比去年最后季度要稍微缓和一些（部分原因是去年第四季度增长率可能会比之前3.8%的年化下跌更加严重）。JPMorgan Chase 设计的一项指数表明，尽管总体而言，经济恶化比预期严重，但是恶化的边际小了一些；该公司的分析人员已经稍稍降低了“迷你萧条”的风险预期。

Meanwhile, thanks to huge policy stimulus by the authorities since October, yields on corporate bonds have edged lower, interbank rates have improved, and the money supply has surged. Thomson Reuters, a data gatherer, says that more than $100 billion of American corporate bonds have been issued this year, more than the four preceding months combined (though many are federally guaranteed).

同时，多亏10月份以来有关当局提供的大型政策激励，企债收益率已经降低，银行间拆借利率有所提高，同时货币供给大幅增加。据信息提供商汤姆森路透（Thomson Reuters）表示，美国今年已经发行1000亿美金的公司债券，比之前四个月的加起来还多（尽管许多都是获得联邦担保的）。

Larry Hatheway, a strategist at UBS, says a shift in the data from uniformly bad to mixed normally suggests that demand and production are coming back into balance. However, “This isn’t a normal cycle,” he notes. Credit supply has not remotely returned to normal; he points out that investment-grade companies are still borrowing at a punitive 8% even after recent improvements in the market. Though a few junk-bond issuers have tapped the market, part of the demand may have come from funds “gambling for resurrection”, ie, taking a big risk for high yields in a desperate bid to offset losses elsewhere.

瑞士联合银行（UBS）的策略师拉里•夏德威(Larry Hatheway)说，经济数据由普遍糟糕转变为正常的有升有降表明需求和产出正在回归平衡。但是他指出，“这并不是一个正常循环”，信贷供给还远没有恢复正常；他还指出，尽管近期市场有所转好，但是处于投资评级的公司仍然在以8%的高利率借款。虽说少数几家垃圾债券发行商也已从市场上筹集到了资金，但是对这类贷款的需求部分来自于那些 “赌生死的”基金，比如说，（这些基金公司）通过高风险高收益拼命地想要补偿在其他方面的损失。

For each scrap of good news, there is plenty of the bad stuff. A 16.8% plunge in housing starts in January suggests no bottom is in sight there. Except for Chinese credit (see article), there is little encouraging in the rest of the world. What optimism the markets have shown has been mostly down to hopes of effective policy. This week’s equity rout suggests that policymakers still struggle to meet those expectations.

伴随每一个好消息而来的，是大量的坏消息。从1月份开始，房市下跌了16.8%，这表明房市的下跌还没有到头。除了中国信贷市场以外，世界其他地区都没有任何令人鼓舞的地方。市场所呈现出来的乐观迹象大都源自于对政策有效性的希望。本周权益市场的大幅下跌意味着决策者仍要挣扎着满足这些预期。

 

译者： chrisshou    http://www.ecocn.org/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=17312