Cluster weapons
集束武器
Blown away
烟消云散
May 22nd 2008
From The Economist print edition
2008年5月22日《经济学人》印刷版
Bemoaning nasty weapons is one thing. Deciding how to ban them is another
非人道武器，谴责不等于禁止
A cluster bomb’s Cambodian legacy
柬埔寨集束炸弹受害者
IT HAS worked with landmines. Can a conscience-stricken world now pull off the same trick with cluster munitions? These blast an area with bomblets: handy in the heat of war, but often leaving a lethal legacy of unexploded ordnance afterwards. Campaigners say that by far the majority of casualties are civilians.
地雷禁令业已施行。良心发现的世界诸国能否同样禁止集束武器？集束武器引爆后，霰弹能造成大面积杀伤：战争之际确为杀人良器，但未爆炸的霰弹亦是致命残留。禁令支持者指出，迄今为止，集束武器贻害的大多为平民。
Now 100-plus countries are meeting in Dublin, hoping to follow up the success of the 1997 Mine Ban Treaty, signed by 155 governments. The aim is to produce a draft treaty by May 30th, for signing in December. “A year and a half ago I never would have thought we’d have been here at this point,” says Bonnie Docherty, a researcher for Human Rights Watch (HRW), which has been campaigning hard for the ban. During fighting in Lebanon in 2006, she says, Israel delivered 4m cluster submunitions. As many as a quarter failed to go off.
1997年，155国政府签署了“禁止地雷公约”。如今，一百多个国家 齐聚都柏林，希望能复制当年的成功，能够在5月30日之前拟定公约草案，并在12月正式签署。“一年半以前，我从未指望能获得如今之进展”，“人权观察” 组织研究员Bonnie Docherty如是说。该组织一直致力于推动针对集束武器的国际禁令。她表示，在2006年黎巴嫩战争期间，以色列投下的霰弹总数为四百万，其中高达四 分之一未被引爆。
The first snag is that countries that mainly make or use cluster weapons (China, Israel, Pakistan and Russia, as well as America) are not part of the Dublin talks. America’s diplomat for the issue, Richard Kidd, says UN talks on conventional arms are a better venue. But that process has been in stalemate for six years.
困难之一在于集束武器的主要生产国及使用国（包括中国、以色列、巴基斯坦、俄罗斯、以及美国）均缺席都柏林谈判。美负责该事务的外交官员Richard Kidd表示，此议题在联合国常规武器谈判中讨论更为合适。而他所提及的谈判已陷于僵局六年之久。
Nonetheless, campaigners think the treaty will reduce and stigmatise the use of cluster munitions. Even states that did not sign the landmine treaty, points out Ms Docherty, have mostly ended up complying with it. Companies that produce cluster munitions risk investors’ wrath: in March, at the Irish government’s request, the National Pension Reserve Fund sold 23m Euros ($36m) of shares in seven arms companies that produce the weapons.
尽管如此，禁令支持者认为条约的达成终将对集束弹药的使用起到约束作用。Docherty女士指出，即 便是当时未签署禁止地雷公约的国家多数最终还是通过了该公约。军火企业生产集束武器有可能触怒股东：三月，在政府的干预下，爱尔兰国家养老储备基金出售了 手头持有的七家生产集束武器的生产商高达2300万欧元（合3600万美元）的股份。
Such pressure works only in some countries. Turkey and Pakistan signed an agreement this February to produce cluster munitions. Textron, an American arms company, says the three countries that have bought its new “sensor-fused weapons”, and the 17 that may, are unlikely to sign the treaty.
但像爱尔兰这样的国家并不多。今年二月，土耳其和巴基斯坦签署协议，共同生产集束弹药。美国的军火企业德事隆公司表示，已有三国购买了其最新研发的“感应触发武器”，另有十七国有购买意向，而上述国家不太可能签署禁止公约。
Another snag is defining what a cluster munition is. Most parties agree that the crude weapons designed in the cold war to attack tank columns and troop formations can be banned. But Britain, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, and Switzerland all want exemptions for sophisticated weapons with low failure rates or small numbers of submunitions.
困难之二在于集束武器的确切定义。对冷战期间研发的用于攻击坦克纵队和人员集群的武器，大多数国家都同意应予以禁止。但英、法、德以及荷兰、瑞典、瑞士等国都希望爆炸率高的或霰弹数少的集束武器能被允许使用。
Smart weapons of the kind produced by Textron, for example, are programmed to hit vehicle targets. If they miss, they are inert: unlike old-style weapons, they won’t go off when prodded with a stick. The failure rate in tests is less than 1%. Does that make them acceptable from a humanitarian point of view? Not necessarily. The M85 used by Israel in Lebanon supposedly had a failure rate of 1%; reality on the battlefield proved closer to 10%.
比如，德事隆公司就生产一种用于攻击车辆的集束弹。不像老式集束弹，这种新式炸弹如果未命中目标，霰 弹就会失效，即便用棍棒碰触都无法引爆。依据试验得出的未爆率低于1%。从人道观点来看，此种武器是否就可以使用呢？不一定。以军在黎巴嫩使用的M85系 列炸弹理论未爆率为1%，而实际作战中，未爆率接近10%。
Peter Herby, a top official dealing with the issue at the International Committee of the Red Cross, a Swiss-based do-gooding outfit, says exceptions should be particular not specific, depending on reliability, accuracy and the number of sub-munitions in each weapons system.
而国际红十字会负责该事务的首席官员Peter Herby认为，对某种武器系统，应依据其可靠性、精确度以及霰弹数来决定是否能将其列为例外，而不能一概而论。
The third snag is that 76 countries have stockpiles of cluster munitions. HRW reckons the number of bomblets runs into the billions. Signatories will have to destroy these weapons, not store or sell them. That is a hazardous, messy and costly business, requiring scarce skills. Dealing with Britain’s 3,650 BL-775 cluster munitions may use up to eight years’ worth of the £30m ($65m) annual budget for disarmament. Some states want lengthy transition periods too. Places like Laos, whose territory is still littered with munitions from the hot wars in Indochina, will have difficulty meeting the five-year target for clearing up unexploded ordnance, let alone finding money to pay for it.
困 难之三在于，76个国家有集束弹药库存。“人权观察”估算，库存霰弹总数可能达数十亿。一旦签约，各签约国应销毁这些武器，而不得有留存或是进行销售。销 毁这些武器是一项危险、复杂而又耗资巨大的工程，而且需要有先进的技术作保证。如想销毁英国库存的3650枚BL-775集束炸弹，需花费8年，每年耗资 3000万英镑（合6500万美元）。有些国家也想获得一个较长的过渡期。像老挝这样的国家，其境内仍散落着当年印支战争期间投放的炸弹，想在短短五年间 清除完毕困难重重，况且老挝还面临着相关经费短缺的问题。
A final question is whether the treaty will allow countries that have signed it to continue military co-operation with those that haven’t. That is a pressing issue for America’s NATO allies. Yet the campaigners are optimistic these loose ends will be tied up, or at least fudged. “Most old cold-war-style cluster munitions will be eliminated, but it’s a matter of where you draw the lines. Wherever you draw them, I think 90-95% of existing stocks will fall below it. That’s really good,” says Mr Herby.
最后一个困难 在于是否允许签约国与非签约国继续进行军事合作。这对于美国的北约盟国非常重要。但支持者对此仍保持乐观，他们相信公约草案中能够查补这些缺漏，或至少规 避某些问题。“大多数冷战时期的老式集束弹将被列入禁止之列。当然，主要要看标准如何划定。但无论如何划定，我相信目前库存的90至95%将在禁止之列。 这就是相当不错的成绩了。”Herby女士表示。
译者：houyhnhnm http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=11633&extra=page%3D1