[2008.11.15] 特别报道：新兴市场的汽车工业

Special report
特别报道

CARS IN EMERGING MARKETS
新兴市场的汽车

A global love affair
全球热恋

Nov 13th 2008
From The Economist print edition

Emerging markets are the car industry’s big hope. But it won’t be an easy ride, says Matthew Symonds (interviewed here)
新兴市场是汽车工业的一大希望，但Matthew Symonds说这并非易事。

AFP

THERE has rarely been a tougher time to be a carmaker. Squeezed by the credit crunch, rocked by the seesawing price of oil and now faced with a nasty recession as the banking crisis infects the real economy, the traditional markets of North America, western Europe and Japan, already sluggish for several years, have all but packed up. In America car sales are running at about 16% below last year’s level. Detroit’s struggling big three-General Motors, Ford and Chrysler-are in dire straits. They have wrung a $25 billion bail-out from Congress and are now looking for much more. In Europe the market is also collapsing. Sales in Japan this year are expected to be the lowest since 1974.
对于一个汽车制造商来说没有比这更困难的时候了：被信用紧缩所挤压，为波动的石油价格所冲击，随着金融危机影响实体经济，现在又面临着糟糕的经济萧条，南美、西欧和日本的传统市场几年来已经疲软，几乎是停了下来。美国的汽车销售比去年低16%。底特律正在挣扎的三大企业–通用汽车、福特和克莱斯勒–处境险恶。它们已经从国会那里搞到了250亿美元的救命钱，现在正在寻求更多。

However, not all is doom and gloom. Mature vehicle markets may be close to saturation, but there is huge unsatisfied demand in the big emerging car markets of Brazil, Russia, India and China (the so-called BRICs). Although not immune from the rich countries’ troubles, they are likely to suffer much less. For one thing, levels of personal debt are far lower and a smaller proportion of cars are bought on credit. For another, the BRIC economies have been expanding so fast that even a slowdown should still leave them with growth rates that look respectable to Western eyes.
然而，并非一切都前景黯淡、毫无希望。成熟的汽车市场可能已接近饱和，但是在巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国（即所谓”金砖四国”）的新兴汽车市场中存在着巨大的未满足的需求。尽管未能免受富裕国家困难的冲击，它们所受的影响可能要小得多。一个，它们的个人债务水平非常低，利用信用贷款购买汽车的比例也更小。另一个，”金砖四国”的经济发展如此之快，就算减速，其发展速度仍然令西方国家肃然起敬。

One measure of the BRIC countries’ new importance to the car industry is that, recession or not, global car sales in 2008 may still hit an all-time record of about 59m. For the first time passenger-vehicle sales in the BRICs, at around 14m, are likely to overtake those in America, which are expected to be the worst since 1992. As recently as 2005 America outsold them by over 10m. By the end of this decade China, already the world’s second-biggest market, will probably overtake America’s sales of 16m-17m in a “normal” year. In Brazil sales have increased by nearly 30% in each of the past two years. Russia is likely to overtake Germany as Europe’s biggest market within the next two years, with sales of around 3.5m. Meanwhile, Tata’s $2,500 Nano, due to be launched in early 2009, is designed to do for India what the Model T Ford did for America 90 years ago.
“金砖四国”对汽车工业来说具有新的重要性，其中一个数据是：不管萧条与否，全球2008年的汽车销售仍创历史记录，达到大约5900万辆。”金砖四国” 的载人汽车销量第一次达到约1400万辆，有可能超过美洲（其销量预计为1992年来最差的一年）。2005年美洲比”金砖四国”的销量多1000万辆。中国，已经是世界第二大市场，到2010年，其”常规”年份的销量将超过美国1600万-1700万的年销量。过去两年巴西的销量每年都增加将近30%。俄罗斯两年之内可能超过德国成为欧洲最大的汽车市场，其销量大约为3500万辆。与此同时，塔塔2500美元的Nano，将于2009年年初上市，这是为印度定制的汽车，就像90年前福特为美国定制的Model T。

It is the irresistible combination of rapid economic growth, favourable demographics and social change in the BRICs that is coming to the carmakers’ rescue and that is likely to account for nearly all their growth for the foreseeable future. America has more than 900 cars (including light trucks) for every 1,000 people of driving age. In the big western European countries and Japan, where public transport is better and population is denser, the figure is a little over 600. But in Russia it is below 200, in Brazil about 130, in China around 30 and in India less than ten.
“金砖四国”的经济快速增长，其人口统计学上的变化和社会变革也对经济有利，这种组合使汽车制造商们无法抗拒，它将成为它们的救星，在可以预见的未来，它也将成为汽车工业几乎所有增长的动力来源。美国的驾驶年龄层中每千人拥有900辆汽车（包括轻型卡车）。在西欧大一点的国家以及日本，它们的公共交通更好而人口更稠密，这一数字是600多一点。但在俄罗斯这个数字低于200，巴西大概是130，中国大概30，印度则低于10.

When times are hard, an American family that already has two or three cars will simply postpone buying a new one. But a potential customer in an emerging market who has been saving for years to buy his first car will still want to go ahead. As Carlos Ghosn, the boss of the Renault-Nissan alliance, put it at this year’s Beijing motor show: “Nothing can stop the car being the most coveted product that comes with development.”
身处艰难时刻，一个美国家庭已经拥有2到3辆汽车，将很简单地推迟购买一辆新车。但在新兴市场，潜在的客户为购买自己的第一辆汽车已经储蓄多年，他们仍想出手购买。Carlos Ghosn，雷诺-尼桑联盟的老板，在今年的北京汽车展上说：”没有什么能阻止汽车成为随发展而到来的人们最想拥有的产品”。

The new champions
新冠军

No wonder that all the big carmakers are fighting like rats in a sack to win the largest piece of the action. Already, emerging markets have made the difference between life and death for some of the most famous names in the industry. GM’s survival would be in even greater doubt without the meteoric growth it is seeing in China. Thanks in large part to the BRICs, a record 65% of GM’s sales in the first quarter were outside America.
怪不得所有大的汽车制造商为了在这一回合中赢得一杯羹，打得像麻袋中的老鼠一样。在该产业最著名的一些品牌中，能够赢得新兴市场已经成为生死攸关的事情。如果没有在中国的迅速增长，通用汽车的生存将更有疑问。多亏了在”金砖四国”的巨大销量，创纪录地占通用汽车第一季度销量的65%，这超过了美国。

When Italy’s Fiat was in danger of going out of business a few years ago, its Brazilian operation came to the rescue. Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley, a bank, estimates that 65% of its net income last year came from emerging markets, mostly from Brazil. Volkswagen, the market leader in China, believes it will soon be able to challenge Toyota as the world’s biggest carmaker. In Russia Renault has taken a 25% stake in the country’s biggest local carmaker, AvtoVAZ, and its Logan is the first of a new wave of global low-cost cars.
几年前当意大利的菲亚特处于关张的危险中时，是它在巴西的业务拯救了它。据摩根•斯坦利银行的Adams Jonas统计，去年其65%的纯收入来自新兴市场，绝大部分来自巴西。大众，中国的市场领袖，相信它不久将能够挑战丰田成为世界最大汽车制造商。俄罗斯的雷诺已经收购了该国最大的本地汽车制造商AvtoVAZ 25%的股份，并且其Logan汽车是全球低价汽车新浪潮中的首批产品。

Makes such as Mercedes, BMW and even Bentley and Ferrari are now common sights on the streets of Moscow and Shanghai. As Mr Jonas points out, emerging markets account for more than a third of the world’s rich but only about 15% of luxury-car sales.
像梅赛德斯、宝马甚至本特利和法拉利这样的汽车在莫斯科和上海街头已经很常见了。正如Jonas先生所指出的，新兴市场占有世界财富的三分之一，却只拥有豪华轿车销量的15%。

These markets have much in common, but each is also remarkably different. In China buyers turn up their noses at small cars. The market is still dominated by joint ventures with foreign firms, but the strongest local manufacturers are rapidly expanding production.
这些市场有很多共同点，但每个市场也都显著不同。在中国购买者对小型轿车不感兴趣。这个市场仍然为外国合资公司所统治，但最有实力的本地制造商正在快速扩大生产。

Russia still has a sizeable indigenous industry, but many of its products hark back to the old Soviet Union. Like the Chinese, Russians like high and wide SUVs. By contrast Brazilians prefer their cars small. India has established itself as an exponent of what car-industry executives call “frugal engineering”-innovation in the cause of ultra-low cost. Diesel engines are almost unknown in emerging markets other than India because poor-quality diesel fuel is associated with trucks. In Brazil nearly all new cars are able to run on ethanol.
俄罗斯仍然拥有一个相当大的本土汽车产业，但是它的许多产品都与老苏维埃联盟有关。像中国人一样，俄罗斯人喜欢高大宽敞的SUV。相反，巴西人喜欢自己的汽车小一点。印度已经成为汽车工业经理们口中的”节俭设计”的典型–在超低成本方面很有创新。柴油引擎在新兴市场除了印度外几乎没人知道，因为质量低劣的柴油与卡车联系在一起。在巴西几乎所有的新车都能够使用乙醇燃料。

Despite the social and economic benefits that widespread car ownership brings, its spread in developing countries has raised fears about its environmental consequences, especially carbon emissions that have climate-changing effects. Given a rapidly growing world car population and dwindling oil supplies, fuel prices are bound to rise in the long term.
尽管拥有汽车的人越来越多会带来社会和经济效益，但在发展中国家它也引起对环境后果的担心，尤其是能引起气候变化的碳排放。考虑到世界汽车数量的快速增长以及石油供应的萎缩，长期来看燃料价格肯定会上涨。

Infrastructure is another big worry. In China new highways are being built on much-needed agricultural land. In India nearly half the traffic runs on just 2% of the country’s roads. In the megacities of the developing world, from São Paulo in Brazil to Mumbai in India, cars often move at less than walking speed, stuck in traffic jams.
基础设施是另一个大难题。在中国，新的高速公路正建造在极其需要的农业用地上。在印度，近一半的交通运行在该国仅2%的公路上。在发展中国家超过百万人的大城市中，从巴西的São Paulo到印度的Mumbai，汽车通常以低于步行的速度移动，在交通堵塞中动弹不得。

According to Mr Ghosn, the only way to give people the cars they want without wrecking the planet is to move quickly to producing zero-emission vehicles, probably powered by batteries. “Nothing else will prevent the world from exploding,” he says. Others in the industry may quietly agree, but they are less confident that the technology to power them will arrive in time and at an acceptable price. And only governments can build the roads that will accommodate so many more cars. For the world’s carmakers the road ahead is full of opportunities, but also many risks.
根据Ghosn先生的说法，唯一既能够给人们想要的汽车又不毁灭这颗行星的办法是快速转移到生产零排放汽车上来，可能用电池驱动。”没有别的办法能阻止这个世界爆炸。”他说。该产业的其他人可能会默默地同意这一点，但是他们对于为其提供能量的技术是否能够及时出现以及价格是否能够接受信心不足。而且只有政府才能够建造能够容纳更多汽车的道路。对于汽车制造商们来说，前途充满机会，但也有很多危险。

译者：7colorwolf http://www.ecocn.org/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=15417&extra=page%3D1