[2008.11.08] 美国大选：无限期望

America’s election
美国大选

Great expectations
无限期望

Nov 6th 2008
From The Economist print edition

Barack Obama has won a famous victory. Now he must use it wisely
奥巴马取得了举世瞩目的胜利。现在他必须明智的利用这一胜果

NO ONE should doubt the magnitude of what Barack Obama achieved this week. When the president-elect was born, in 1961, many states, and not just in the South, had laws on their books that enforced segregation, banned mixed-race unions like that of his parents and restricted voting rights. This week America can claim more credibly than any other western country to have at last become politically colour-blind. Other milestones along the road to civil rights have been passed amid bitterness and bloodshed. This one was marked by joy, white as well as black (see article).
相信无人质疑奥巴马于本周取胜的重要意义。这位新总统出生于1961年，那时美国很多州的法律都要求强制实施种族分离、禁止像奥巴马父母那样的跨族通婚、限制选举权利；这些不仅限于南部地区，而出现在全国范围内。本周，美国可以比任何其它西方国家更令人信服地宣称：终于使政治与肤色脱钩了。在通向民权的道路上，其它里程碑似的重大历史事件都是在痛苦与血泊中通过的；而此次总统选举则以愉快著称，受到了包括白人及黑人在内的全国选民的称赞。

Mr Obama lost the white vote, it is true, by 43-55%; but he won almost exactly same share of it as the last three (white) Democratic candidates; Bill Clinton, Al Gore and John Kerry. And he won heavily among younger white voters. America will now have a president with half-brothers in Kenya, old schoolmates in Indonesia and a view of the world that seems to be based on respect rather than confrontation.
奥巴马对白人选票的争夺以43%-55%失利，这是不争的事实；但他与过去三位白人民主党候选人–克林顿、戈尔和克里–得到的白人选票几乎相同。同时， 他在年轻一代的白人选民中取得了重大胜利。这位新总统有一个同父异母的兄弟在肯尼亚，有老同学在印尼，他的世界观似乎建立在尊重而不是对抗的基础之上。

That matters. Under George Bush America’s international standing has sunk to awful lows. This week Americans voted in record-smashing numbers for many reasons, but one of them was an abhorrence of how their shining city’s reputation has been tarnished. Their country will now be easier for its friends to like and harder for its foes to hate.
这很重要。在布什治下，美国的国际声誉降到了糟糕地步。本周美国选民的投票数量突破了历史纪录，其中原因很多，有一个就是他们对曾经辉煌无比的城市形象已然黯淡无光而感到愤恨。现在他们的国家将会更易赢得朋友的喜爱，而不易引起敌人的仇恨。

In its own way the election illustrates this redeeming effect. For the past eight years the debacle in Florida in 2000 has been cited (not always fairly) as an example of shabby American politics. Yet here was a clear victory delivered by millions of volunteers-and by the intelligent use of technology to ride a wave of excitement that is all too rare in most democracies. Mr Obama showed that, with the right message, a candidate with no money or machine behind him can build his own.
大选用其特有的方式为自己正了名。2000年佛罗里达的计票风波在过去的8年中一直被引用，以证明美国政治的不光彩（并不总是公正的）。然而这一次，数百万的志愿者积极参与，技术被聪明的用以掀起一个在大多数民主国家里罕见的兴奋浪潮。这一切都表明，这是一场光明磊落的胜利。奥巴马的胜利告诉世人，即使资金缺乏、身后没有竞选机器支持，一样可以取胜，这是一个正确的信息。

Hard times and a bleak House
艰难时世和荒凉的议院

With such a great victory come unreasonably great expectations. Many of Mr Obama’s more ardent supporters will be let down-and in some cases they deserve to be. For those who voted for him with their eyes wide open to his limitations, everything now depends on how he governs. Abroad, this 21st-century president will have to grapple with the sort of great-power rivalries last seen in the 19th century (see article). At home, he must try to unite his country, tackling its economic ills while avoiding the pitfalls of one-party rule. Rhetoric and symbolism will still be useful in this; but now is the turn of detail and dedication.
如此的重大的胜利带来了不合理的巨大期望。奥巴马的很多铁杆支持者将会感到失望–但在很多方面，他们合该如此。对于那些在投票时就认识到奥巴马能力的局限性的人来说，一切都取决于奥巴马如何治理国家。在国外，这位21世纪的总统将不得不与强大的对手进行争斗，上一次出现这种情况还要追朔到19世纪。内政方面，他必须实现国家团结，在避免一党制隐患的同时还要应对经济病患。滔滔辩才和激昂的口号在解决这些问题时将依然有效，但现在是时候脚踏实地、真抓实干了。

Mr Obama begins with several advantages. At 47, he is too young to have been involved in the bitter cultural wars about Vietnam. And by winning support from a big majority of independents, and even from a fair few Republicans, he makes it possible to imagine a return to a more reflective time when political opponents were not regarded as traitors and collaboration was something to be admired.
奥巴马在起点上便有优势。47岁的奥巴马非常年轻，不会卷入越南战争这一痛苦的文化争端中。通过赢取多数独立选民、甚至是相有当数量的共和党成员的支持，奥巴马让大家看到了回归沉思年代的可能性，那时政见不同的反对者不会被当成叛国者，相互合作也是被赞赏的举动。

Oddly, he may be helped by the fact that, in the end, his victory was slightly disappointing. He won around 52% of the popular vote, more than Mr Bush in 2000 and 2004, but not a remarkable number; this was no Roosevelt or Reagan landslide. And though Mr Obama helped his party cement its grip on Congress, gaining around 20 seats in the House of Representatives and five in the Senate, the haul in the latter chamber falls four short of the 60 needed to break filibusters and pass controversial legislation without Republican support (though recounts may add another seat, or even two). Given how much more money Mr Obama raised, the destruction of the Republican brand under Mr Bush and the effects of the worst financial crisis for 70 years, the fact that 46% of people voted against the Democrat is a reminder of just what a conservative place America still is. Mr Obama is the first northern liberal to be elected president since John Kennedy; he must not forget how far from the political centre of the country that puts him.
与期望的有所不同，奥巴马取胜多少会有些让人失望，而这一事实反而会对他有所帮助。他在全民投票中的得票率为52%左右，比布什在2000年和2004年 取得的都要高，但并非一个不同寻常的成绩；比不上罗斯福和里根所取得的压倒性的胜利。同时，尽管奥巴马帮助他的党派加强了对国会的控制力，取得了众议院的 20个席位和参议院的5个席位；但在参议院获得的席位距离60个还差4个，一旦达到60个席位，就可以突破阻挠议事并且在没有共和党支持的情况下也可以通过争议性立法（即使验票也许会增加一个甚至是两个席位）。即使奥巴马筹集到海量的竞选资金、布什给共和党声誉带来的损毁程度、美国正遭受70年以来最严重金融危机所带来的灾害后果，还是有46%的选民向民主党投出反对票；这个事实提醒世人，美国还是一个相当保守的地方。奥巴马是肯尼迪时期以来首位被选为总统的北方自由党成员；他必须铭记自己距离力助其当选的中间立场还有遥远的距离。

Mr Obama’s victory, in fact, is almost identical in scope to that of Bill Clinton in 1992; and it took just two years for the Republicans to sweep back to power in the 1994 Gingrich revolution. Should President Obama give in to some of the wilder partisans in Congress, it is easy to imagine an ugly time ahead-and not just for the Democrats in the 2010 mid-term elections. America could fatally lapse into protectionism, or re-regulate business and finance to the point at which innovation is stifled, or “spread the wealth” (to quote the next president) to the extent that capital is prudently shifted overseas.
实际上，从取胜程度上讲，奥巴马的胜利与克林顿在1992年时几乎相同；而共和党只用了2年时间就通过1994年的金里奇革命收回了大权。如果奥巴马总统屈服于国会中的狂热党徒，那么丑陋的前景就不难想象了–不仅仅指2010年的中期选举。美国可能会陷入致命的保护贸易主义氛围中，或者过度管制金融和商业以致抑制了创新，或者 过度”分散财富”（奥巴马语）令资本谨慎的转移到了海外。

Our mutual friends
我们共同的朋友

Mr Obama will not take office until January 20th, but he can use the next ten weeks well. A good start would be to announce that he will offer jobs to a few Republicans. Robert Gates, Mr Bush’s excellent defence secretary who has helped transform the position in Iraq, ought to be kept in the post for at least a while. Sadly, Richard Lugar has ruled himself out as secretary of state; but Chuck Hagel, senator for Nebraska, is another possibility for a defence or foreign-policy job. Mr Obama might even find a non-executive role for John McCain, with whom he agrees on many things, especially the need to tackle global warming and close Guantánamo. Another pragmatic move would be to announce that his new treasury secretary (ideally an experienced centrist such as Larry Summers or Tim Geithner) will start working closely with Hank Paulson, the current one, immediately.
奥巴马在1月20日之前不会就职，但他可以很好的利用未来的10周。宣布提名一些共和党员加入其内阁是一个很好的开始。布什政府中，盖茨在国防部长的职位上表现优秀，他帮助美国改变了伊拉克战区的整体形势。他至少应该继续任职一段时间。很遗憾，卢格已经不可能成为国务卿；不过内布拉斯加州议员哈格尔是国防或者外交事务工作的另一个人选。奥巴马甚至可以给麦凯恩安排一个顾问性职位，两者对许多事务持相同看法，特别在应对全球变暖和关闭关塔那摩基地这两点上。另一个务实的举措应该是向外界宣布，他的新财长（像萨默斯或者盖纳这样经验丰富的中立派出任此职九最为理想）会立即同现任财长鲍尔森联手工 作。

Whoever he appoints, Mr Obama will be constrained by the failing economy. He should not hold back from stimulus packages to help America out of recession. But he has huge promises to keep as well. He has pledged tax cuts to 95% of families. He has proposed near-universal health care-an urgent reform, as America’s population ages and companies restrict the health insurance they offer. He proposes more spending on infrastructure, both physical and human. But if he is to tackle all or any of this, he must balance his plans with other savings or new revenues if his legacy is not to be one of profligacy and debt. He has to start deciding whom to disappoint.
无论指定哪位人选，奥巴马的政策都会受制于失败的经济形势。他不应阻止可以拯救美国走出经济萧条的刺激政策，但他也有非常沉重的诺言需要遵守。奥巴马保证为95%的家庭减税，他提议了一个近乎全民健康保障的医疗计划–鉴于美国人口老龄化和保险公司对健康保险产品做出的种种限制，这是一个迫切的改革。他同时提议在基础设施（自然和人文）方面投入更多。如果他想解决上述全部或部分问题，他必须用在其它地方省下来的钱，或者新的收入来为他的这些计划买单–如果他不希望自己留下的遗产是挥霍浪费或巨额债务的话。从现在开始，他必须去决定要得罪谁了。

Non-Americans must also brace for disappointment. America will certainly change under Mr Obama; the world of extraordinary rendition and licensed torture should thankfully soon be gone. But America will, as it must, continue to put its own interests, and those of its allies, first. Withdrawing from Iraq will be harder than Mr Obama’s supporters hope; the war in Afghanistan will demand more sacrifices from Americans and Europeans than he has yet prepared them for. The problems of the Middle East will hardly be solved overnight. Getting a climate-change bill through Congress will be hard.
非美国人也一定要做好失望的准备。美国肯定会在奥巴马的带领下有些改变，非常规引渡及合法酷刑应该很快消失。但是美国首先仍将（也必须）追求自身和其盟友的利益。从伊拉克撤军比奥巴马的支持者所预想的要难得多；阿富汗战争需要美国人和欧洲人付出更多的牺牲–比奥巴马准备付出的还要多。中东问题也不可能一夜之间迎刃而解。在国会通过气候变化议案依然很难。

The next ten weeks give Mr Obama a chance to recalibrate the rest of the world’s hopes. He could use part of his transition to tour the world, certainly listening to friends and rivals alike but also gently making clear the limits of his presidency. He needs to explain that, although his America will respect human rights and pay more heed to the advice of others, it will not be a pushover: he must avoid the fate of Jimmy Carter, a moralising president who made the superpower look weak.
奥巴马可以利用未来10周时间的给让全世界调整一下对他的期望。他可以利用过渡期的部分时间周游世界，倾听朋友和对手的意见，轻缓的告诉他们自己的局限性。 奥巴马需要让大家明白，尽管他的美国尊重人权、更加留意别人的意见，但不会是一个软蛋：他必须避免重蹈卡特的旧辙，卡特是一个让超级大国显得软弱的道德主义总统。

Like most politicians, Mr Obama will surely fail more than he succeeds. But he is a man of great dignity, superior talents and high ideals. In choosing him, America has shown once again its unrivalled capacity to renew itself, and to surprise.
同多数政客一样，奥巴马失败的地方一定比成功的地方多。但他是一个很有尊严的人，具有超人的才华和崇高的理想。选择他作为总统，美国再次展示了无以伦比的自我更新能力和让世界惊奇的能力。

译者：Tidehunter  http://www.ecocn.org/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=15268&extra=page%3D1