[2008.10.25] 伊拉克：美军何时撤兵

Iraq
伊拉克

When to call the soldiers home
何时诏回驻伊美军

Oct 23rd 2008
From The Economist print edition

Why it is in America’s own interest to let the Iraqis have their way
为什么说让伊拉克人走自己的路符合美国自身的利益？

BARACK OBAMA and John McCain have spent much of the past year quarrelling about when and how the United States should leave Iraq, hoping to sway the minds of millions of American voters. What is sometimes overlooked in this quarrel is that Iraq has rather an important vote too.

去年大部分时间里，巴拉克•奥巴马和约翰•麦凯恩就美军应于何时以及以何种方式撤离伊拉克的问题上争论不休，而他们此举的目的就在于影响数以百万计的美国选民。然而这场争论中时常被忽略的一点就是伊拉克同样也拥有一张相当重要的选票。

The Bush administration and the Iraqi government have been having a tetchy negotiation in recent months about how long, and under what terms, American forces will be allowed to stay after their United Nations’ mandate expires at the end of December. Since Iraq’s prime minister, Nuri al-Maliki, knows he needs the help of American forces a good while longer, and the Americans know that he knows, the likelihood is that the two sides will come to an agreement. But the talks have gone on longer than expected, so a breakdown is not impossible. That could have very bad consequences.

最近几个月里，布什政府与伊拉克政府对今年12月底联合国授权到期后，美军在伊拉克的驻扎时间以及在何种协议框架下留驻伊拉克的问题上争得面红耳赤。伊拉克总理努里•马利基清楚地明白，他需要美军留驻更长的时间，而美国人也对他的想法知根知底，因此谈判的可能性即是双方最终将达成一项协议。但是谈判比预计持续了更长的时间，因而谈判发生破裂也不是不可能。而这将产生非常严重的后果。

The gap is not huge. The latest leaked draft would “aspire” to have American troops leaving Iraq by the end of 2011. That is later than Mr Obama’s preferred date (May 2010) and probably earlier than Mr McCain’s (unspecified), but the date itself is not as big an issue as it seems. Both candidates have left themselves room for manoeuvre, and Mr Maliki probably wants flexibility too, in case he still needs American firepower three years hence to suppress insurgents or defend his borders.

谈判双方的分歧并非不可弥合。最新透露的撤军方案”期望”能在2011年底将美军撤出伊拉克。这一时间比奥巴马所计划的时间（2010年5月）要晚，而比麦凯恩所拟定的时间（未定）要早。然而撤军时间本身并非是一个看起来那么重要的问题。两位总统候选人都为自己留下了后路，马利基先生大概同样也希望这一问题的处理能够灵活，因为三年后他仍然需要利用美军的力量镇压叛乱或保卫国家的边境。

The trouble is that Mr Maliki is not Saddam Hussein. For all the things America has got wrong in Iraq, the government in Baghdad is not the dictatorship or the theocracy that critics once saw as the only possible outcomes of this bungled war. Instead, Iraq is beginning to resemble a democracy, albeit a fragile and imperfect one. Mr Maliki, running a small party in an unruly coalition, has both provincial and parliamentary elections ahead. So whatever his private views, he needs to take account of the impatience of Iraqis to see the back of the occupiers. He also needs to be seen to drive a hard bargain.

难题就在于马利基先生不是萨达姆•侯赛因。尽管美国在伊拉克把事情弄得一团糟，但是巴格达政府并不是专制独裁或神权政治的政府（批评家们曾将独裁统治或神权政治视为这场糟糕战争唯一可能的后果）。相反，伊拉克的民主国家雏形正开始逐渐显露出来，尽管这一雏形脆弱而又不完善。马利基先生执掌的政党在这个难以驾驭的执政联合体中是一个少数派，而他将面临即将到来的地方选举和国会选举。因此，无论他的私人看法是什么，他都需要考虑伊拉克人民对摆脱美国驻军的渴望，他也需要让人们看到他在谈判桌上讨价还价。

A time to play the long game
一场漫长游戏的时间

And America’s interest, strange as it sounds, is to let him do just that. Having booted out the previous regime, the American army is apt to feel it can do what it likes in Iraq, especially when it comes to the conduct and deployment of its own troops. No longer. If it is to secure its long-term relationship with Iraq, the superpower had better adjust fast to the idea that Iraq is once again a sovereign country, one that has a powerful sense of wounded pride and some prickly sensibilities.

尽管听起来很奇怪，但是美国出于利益的考虑也会让马利基先生这样做。在推翻了上一个政权后，美军自认为可以在伊拉克为所欲为，在执行军事行动和部署自己部队上尤为如此。然而这一情况再也不会发生了。如果美国想发展与伊拉克的长期关系，这个超级大国应该尽快认识到：伊拉克再次成为了一个主权国家，这个国家有着强烈的自尊心受挫感以及几分让人生畏的敏锐感。

By some accounts, the Americans have already conceded a lot. They are reported, for example, to have promised that military operations in Iraq will be more closely co-ordinated with the Iraqi government, that American troops will leave the streets, and, perhaps, that soldiers who commit crimes while not in their bases or on operations could be subject to Iraqi law. Some of these undertakings stick in the craw of an army with an understandable instinct for control freakery. The last is especially tricky, given Iraq’s dysfunctional justice system. But they are a small price to pay to secure the gains for which American soldiers in Iraq have paid with so much blood.

一些报道显示，美国人已经做出了巨大的让步。例如，据报道美国已经承诺美军在伊拉克的军事活动将更加密切地配合伊拉克政府，美军将离开街道，或许那些犯罪的美国士兵（犯罪的地点不是在基地或在军事行动中）将接受伊拉克法律的制裁。这些承诺对于天生具有控制狂欲望的美军难以接受。而考虑到伊拉克混乱低效的司法体系，兑现最后一项承诺显得尤为棘手。但是为了保存驻伊美军过去以巨大的伤亡所换取的胜利果实，这些承诺微不足道。

And that is what’s at stake. Look ahead: within a few years, most of the troops will be out and America will depend on soft power to compete with Iran for the hearts and minds of Iraqis. Pro-Iranian parties in Iraq already portray the troop talks as a bid to turn Iraq into an American vassal. Mr Maliki must find the courage to explain in public why this is not so. But by doing more to help him, perhaps by supporting that “aspiration” for 2011 a bit more enthusiastically, America’s departing president could leave the next one a far better chance of keeping Iraq on America’s side in the years to come.

这一点至关重要。可以预计的是：在几年内，大部分的军队将撤出伊拉克，届时美国将有赖于软实力与伊朗展开争取伊拉克民心的竞争。伊拉克国内的亲伊朗派别已经把与军队的协商描述成妄图将伊拉克变为美国附庸的阴谋。马利基先生必须鼓起勇气向公众解释其中的原因。但是，如果给予马利基先生更多的帮助，比如更加积极地支持2011年撤军方案，那么即将离任的美国总统将会给他的下任留下一个更好的机会：让伊拉克今后站在美国一边。

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译者：Phantom   http://www.ecocn.org/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=15080&extra=page%3D1