[2008.09.24] 金融危机：投行之死

American finance
金融危机

And then there were none
投行之死

Sep 24th 2008 | NEW YORK
From Economist.com

What the death of the investment bank means for Wall Street
投资银行模式消失对华尔街来说意味着什么

THE radical overhaul of Britain’s financial sector in 1986 was dubbed the Big Bang. The brutal, unplanned reshaping of Wall Street might be better described as the Big Implosion. As if too ashamed to go on after the humbling of the country’s mortgage agencies and its largest insurer, the “bulge-bracket” brokerage model has collapsed in on itself. Even more humiliating for the erstwhile masters of the universe, the new force in finance is now the government.

1986年英国金融系统的大整顿被称为”金融大爆炸”。而这次对华尔街进行的残酷而又无计划的重塑应该被称为”金融大风暴”。在继美国最大的两家抵押贷款机构和最大的保险商蒙羞受辱之后，华尔街的”顶级投行”的经纪模式也似因连遭重创而无法运行下去，只得轰然垮台。对昔日的世界巨头来说更丢脸的是, 如今金融市场的主导力量变成了美国政府。

The last remaining investment banks, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, were forced to seek sanctuary by converting into bank holding companies after the trampling of Lehman Brothers turned into a full-scale run on the industry. Though neither was particularly sickly, markets could no longer stomach their potentially lethal combination of illiquid assets and skittish wholesale liabilities.

硕果仅存的两家投行–高盛和摩根斯坦利在雷曼垮台后，寻求政府保护：允许其成为银行控股公司从而能在市场上继续保持原有规模运作。尽管二者都不是完全陷入困境，但是市场对于其潜在的致命缺陷–非流动资产和不可靠的大规模债务的模式已经不再信任。

Both will now start gathering large amounts of deposits, a more stable form of funding. Signing up strong partners should also help. Mitsubishi UFJ, a giant Japanese bank, will buy up to 20% of Morgan. Late on Tuesday September 23rd Goldman went one better, coaxing $5 billion from Warren Buffett, an investing legend. This endorsement helped Goldman to raise a further $5 billion in a share offering the next day.

高盛和摩根斯坦利现在会去用吸收大量存款这种稳定的模式来筹资。当然，他们如能和强有力的伙伴合作，那么会对他们筹资有很大帮助。日本银行巨头三菱日联银行会购入摩根斯坦利20％的股份。高盛做的更好，在周二（9月23日）晚些时候，它从传奇投资人物巴菲特那里搞到50亿美元。巴菲特的这个支持有助于高盛第二天从股票发行中再筹得50亿美元。

Mr Buffett, no idle flatterer, describes Goldman as “exceptional”. But some doubt that it can adapt and thrive. As a bank it faces more intrusive supervision from the Federal Reserve, tougher capital requirements and restrictions on investing. Universal banks, such as Citigroup and Bank of America, long dismissed as stodgy, argue that their vast balance sheets and wide range of businesses, from cards to capital markets, give them an edge in trying times. The head of one bank suggests that the golden times enjoyed by investment banks in 2003-06 were an “aberration”, fuelled by a global liquidity glut big enough to hide a multitude of risk-taking sins.

巴菲特先生显然不是无所事事的马屁精，他将高盛描述为”异常出色”。但是有些人怀疑高盛是否能够改革并再次兴盛。作为一个银行它将面临美联储更多的监管，更严格的资本储备率和投资限制。长期以来由于其古板顽固而失宠的综合银行，例如花旗和美国银行，认为他们资产负债表上充足的资本和从银行卡到资本市场广泛的业务，在困难时期给他们带来许多优势。一家银行的老板认为，投资银行在2003到06年间所享受的黄金时光是”不正常的”–由过剩的流动性驱使而来，流动性大到足以掩盖诸多的风险过错。

Private-equity firms and hedge funds spy opportunity. The buyout barons got good news this week, when the Fed relaxed its rules on their ownership of banks. These investors are also going after the investment banks’ “talent”. Hedge funds will be particularly keen to get their hands on cutting-edge risk-takers who fret that new regulation will clip their wings.

私募股权公司和对冲基金正在伺机以动。它们本周得到个好消息，美联储放松了这些收购巨头对银行控股的限制。这些投资者正在追逐投行的”人才”。对冲基金将会对那些担心自己被新规定束缚手脚的精英冒险家们（译者注：投行的人才）表现的格外热情。

Power may shift in two other directions: abroad and, to a lesser extent, to boutique investment banks. Mitsubishi is not the only foreign bank making a move. After a brief wrangle in the bankruptcy courts, Britain’s Barclays has taken over Lehman’s American operations.

权力正在两极分化：一是朝向海外，国际化方向聚集，另一个则是朝向小型专业投行聚集。三菱并不是唯一一个行动的外资银行。在破产法庭上简单争执之后，英国的巴克莱银行收购了雷曼美国的运营部门。

But all is not lost for the former investment banks. For one thing, they may not have to cut leverage by as much as feared. Though their overall leverage ratios are high, their risk-adjusted capital ratios under the Basel 2 rules are stronger than those of most commercial banks.

但是对于原来投行来说并不是所有都失去了。至少，他们不用减掉杠杆像原来担心的那么多。尽管它们的全面杠杆比率很高，但在巴塞尔2协议下，他们的风险调节资本比率比绝大多数商业银行都要好。

Moreover, there are some advantages to becoming a bank now. Dozens of regional lenders are expected to fail in the coming months. Goldman and Morgan should thus be able to amass deposits on the cheap, and without the headaches that would accompany a merger with a big commercial bank. As two of the sharpest distressed-debt investors, they will also be looking to pick up assets from the government’s giant loan-buying entity when it gets going.

此外，现在变为银行还有一些优势。许多地区性商业银行在近期会倒闭。因此，高盛和摩根斯坦利就可以吸收大量便宜的存款，而不必头痛要与一家大型商业银行合并的事情了。作为两家债券严重受损的投资者，它们也同样希望在政府巨大的贷款购买实体成立后，能够回笼些资产。

Given the acute stress in money markets, however, the accent for the time being is more on survival than grabbing opportunities. Banks continue to treat each other with suspicion in interbank loan markets.

由于货币市场有着巨大的压力，现在市场的声音不是能否抓住机会而是能否保住性命了。从银行间拆借市场可以看出银行之间依然存在着巨大的疑虑。

Financial firms fear further fallout from the recent, potentially catastrophic run on money-market funds that prompted the government to step in with guarantees. “Prime” money funds, which are important buyers of corporate debt, remain under pressure and are pulling away from anything deemed risky. This is a big problem for banks, since money funds hold up to $1.3 trillion of their short-term debt. As the funds retreat, the banks will be forced to turn to longer-term (and more expensive) funding markets.

金融公司担心最近在货币市场基金上潜在的灾难会有更严重的辐射影响。这促使美国政府介入市场提供担保。重要的公司债券购买者，”首要”货币基金仍处于压力之下，而且不再涉及任何有风险的债券。这对银行来说是个大问题，因为货币基金只有它们1.3万亿美元的短期债券。随着这些基金的撤退，银行将被迫使用期限更长（且成本更高）的筹资手段。

Once markets stabilise, Wall Street will start to wonder if it is better or worse off without its standalone investment banks. They may leave behind a vacuum. As broker-dealers, regulated more lightly by the Securities and Exchange Commission, they were free to put large dollops of capital to work, providing liquidity, making markets and assuming risk. As banks, they may find the Fed takes a more restrictive view.

一旦市场企稳，华尔街就会考虑缺乏独立投行模式对其有利还是有害。独立投行之死留下了一片真空地带。作为经纪交易商，略受证券交易委员会监管，它们可以自由地运作巨额资本，提供流动性，形成市场并评估风险。作为银行，它们则会发现美联储有着更加限制性的看法。

译者：rushor    http://www.ecocn.org/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=14252&extra=page%3D1
提示：在本译文的原文链接里有精彩的讨论。