[2008.09.17] 美国经济：等待观望

America’s economy
美国经济

Wait and see
等待观望

Sep 17th 2008 | WASHINGTON, DC
From Economist.com

The Fed reckons the financial crisis has not yet seriously undermined the economic outlook
美联储认为这场金融危机尚未严重损害美国经济前景

DEFYING market expectations for a cut, America’s Federal Reserve kept its short-term interest rate target steady at 2% on Tuesday September 16th. The statement accompanying the decision was, at first glance, hard nosed. Ben Bernanke and his fellow central bankers reckon that “The downside risks to growth and the upside risks to inflation are both of significant concern”, implying an equal propensity to raise rates as to lower them.

与市场减息的预期相悖，美联储在周二（9月16日）继续保持其短期利率目标2％不变。乍看起来，这样的声明和决定是非常死板顽固的。本伯南克和他中央银行的同僚们认为：”经济增长的下行风险和通胀的上行风险都需要重点关注”，这也暗示了美联储对于加息和减息具有同等的倾向。

But a closer read suggests the risks have tilted in the direction of weaker growth and away from higher inflation, though not by enough to put a rate cut on the table yet. “Strains in financial markets have increased significantly and labour markets have weakened further”, it said. “Tight credit conditions, the ongoing housing contraction, and some slowing in export growth are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters.” These all reflect more concern than the statement that followed its meeting on August 5th. Gone was last month’s reference to elevated inflation expectations.

但是更进一步地解读显示经济下滑的风险在增加而通胀的风险却在减小，虽然这还不足以是美联储公开地降息。”金融市场的形势已经异常严峻，而劳动力市场还会更糟，”美联储认为，”信贷紧缩、住房市场的日益委缩和出口增长的放缓在未来几个季度内可能会对经济增长构成压力。”所有这些事情都比那个依循8月5日会议而做的陈述更加值得关注。上月提到的升高通胀的预期已经不存在了。

Still, given the convulsions that have just swept the markets-the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers’ holding company, the bail-out of AIG and Monday’s 4% plunge in stock prices-why not cut rates?

而且，考虑到市场刚刚遭受扫荡–雷曼兄弟倒闭，美国国际集团被接管和周一股票市场4％的大幅下挫–为何还不减息呢？

To be sure, doing so might have been hard for the Fed’s hawks to swallow. Only a month ago officials thought their next move would be to raise rates, not lower them. On the other hand, inflation risks have clearly receded. The price of oil, which topped $140 a barrel in July, fell below $93 on Tuesday.

但是可以肯定的是，降息很难被美联储鹰派所接受。仅在一个月前美联储的官员还认为下一步要做的是加息而不是减息。另一方面，通胀上行的风险已经明显地降低。在七月份最高达140元每桶的油价已经在周二降到每桶93美元以下。

Consumer prices actually declined by 0.1% in August compared with the month before, the Labour Department said on Tuesday. That brought the annual inflation rate down to 5.4% from 5.6%. It will almost certainly fall sharply in the coming year. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, rose by 0.2%, keeping the core inflation rate at 2.5%. The Fed had thought core inflation might creep higher this year as prior energy price increases were passed through to other products, so the tame core reading might have been a pleasant surprise. Finally, with the unemployment rate now up to 6.1%, disinflationary slack is rapidly accumulating in the economy.

美国劳工部周二表示，八月份消费者价格指数比前一月下降了0.1％。这使得年度通胀率从5.6％降到了5.4％。而且这个数字明年还会大幅下降。核心价格，不包括食品和能源，升了0.2％。这使得核心通胀率保持在2.5％。美联储原来认为由于油价的飙升会传导引起其它产品价格的上升从而使得核心通胀率会上升，因次现在温和的核心通胀指数将会是个意外的惊喜。最终，随着现在失业率上升至6.1％，抑制通货膨胀率政策的松懈必将迅速积累并在整体经济状况上体现出来。

The likeliest explanation for the Fed’s decision to stand pat is that it is too soon to know whether the recent developments have affected growth. The Fed may reckon that a 2% funds rate should be sufficient to get the economy through its current slump. There are also other tools to contain the risk: the Fed expanded the size of one of its lending programmes and broadened the type of collateral it accepts in another, and the Treasury has the ability to purchase mortgage-backed securities.

美联储坚持利率不变的决定最有可能的解释是现在还太早，无法判断最近的新情况是否对经济增长有影响。美联储认为2％的利率足以使得现在的经济走出低估。还有其它的工具来控制风险：美联储扩大了其借贷方案，增加了可作担保物品的种类，而且财政部有能力购买有抵押证券。

The risks that surrounded a potential collapse of AIG, of course, pose another problem altogether since its life-threatening crisis crystallised quite suddenly, and it is larger and more complex than Lehman. And unlike Lehman, the Fed does not know the firm well (it’s regulated by the state of New York). Christine Cumming, first vice-president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, voted in the place of the president, Timothy Geithner, who stayed in New York to oversee the rescue of the big insurer.

美国国际集团可能破产引发的风险，由于其危机形成的异常迅速而引发一系列的问题，而且它比雷曼大得多也复杂得多。与雷曼不同的是，美联储对美国国际集团了解的不够（它由纽约州监管）。纽约联邦储备银行第一副主席Christine Cumming被投票表决代替主席Timothy Geithner。Timothy Geithner在纽约监督营救这个大型保险商。

A rate cut now might not even have been felt: the collapse of Lehman has triggered a mad scramble for cash by banks, driving the interbank-lending rate as high as 6% in recent days. The Fed has responded with massive injections of cash into the money market to get the rate down. In that environment, a rate cut would have signalling value but would not rapidly translate into actual borrowing costs.

现在减息可能会没有效果：雷曼的破产引发了银行间对现金的疯狂抢夺，使得银行同业拆借利率在最近今天内升至6％。美联储的响应是给金融市场注入大量的现金使得拆借利率下降。在这样的环境下，减息只有作为信号的价值，而不会迅速转化为实际的借钱成本。

译者：rushor   http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=14093&extra=page%3D1