Oil prices
油价
Running out of gas
汽油用完了
Sep 11th 2008
From The Economist print edition
The world economy pays the price of expensive oil
世界经济为高油价买单
An Iranian approach to raising oil prices
伊朗人提高油价的方法
IT IS a sign of remarkable times that the prospect of $100 oil is greeted with relief rather than trepidation. The price of a barrel of crude, having burst through $100 in February, peaked at $147 on July 11th. Since then it has fallen by more than a quarter. Not everyone is cheering. The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) met in Vienna on September 9th to discuss how to respond to the recent slide in prices. Faced with demands from Iran and Venezuela to cut output, but mindful that high prices have encouraged a more frugal use of oil in rich countries, OPEC opted for a fudge. It kept its target at 28.8m barrels a day but agreed to abide more faithfully to that goal by curbing overproduction-leading to a cut in actual output of 1.8%.
这是一个不平凡时刻的象征：100 美元的油价预期带给人们是更多的是安慰而不是颤抖。桶装原油价格从今年2月的100美元开始飙升，直至7月11日的顶峰147美元。从那以后又跌落了四分之一强。然而并不是每个人都为此欢呼。9月9日，石油输出国组织在维也纳开会讨论如何应对近期油价的下滑。他们既面对着伊朗和委内瑞拉减产的要求，但也警觉于高油价激励富裕国家更加节俭的用油，OPEC选择了逃避责任。大会决定保持每天2880万桶的原油产量，但是各成员国要同意严格遵守目标以控制生产过剩，而这将导致实际产量减少1.8%。
The more hawkish countries want oil prices to remain as high as possible to fund their lavish budgets. But Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest member, has exceeded its output quota over the summer to prevent further harm to its rich-world customers, already reeling from the credit crunch. That makes sense. Even countries such as Germany and Japan, that are not very dependent on borrowing, have suffered alongside those struggling in a sea of mortgage debt, such as America and Britain. The woes of the thrifty may have at least as much to do with sky-high oil prices as they do with collapsing credit markets.
那些相对强硬的国家希望原油价格能够尽可能的上涨，来支撑他们奢侈的预算。但是整个夏天，OPEC中最大的成员国沙特阿拉伯已经超出了它的生产限额，它希望以此来减少对发达国家客户造成进一步的伤害，深处次贷危机中的他们已经是步履蹒跚了。这样做很合情合理。即使像德国和日本这样不太依赖借款的国家也都和英美一样遭受到了很大打击，而后者更是在抵押贷款危机的汪洋中奋力挣扎。也许，这种节俭的悲哀至少是和崩溃的信贷市场和冲天的油价一样有关。
In such circumstances, the recent fall in the price of oil (and food) should be a boon for hard-pressed consumers. It has not, however, fallen far enough for central bankers to be celebrating just yet. Inflation seems set to follow oil and food costs down, but some policymakers fret that it may not fall quickly to a tolerable level. Their concern is that high oil prices may have harmed the potential growth rate of the economy, as well as temporarily pushing up inflation. If so, sluggish GDP growth may not create enough slack in the economy to drive inflation down far.
在这种环境下，近期油价（和粮价）的下跌对那些被价格上涨紧追的消费者来说应该是个恩惠。只是这种价格的下跌幅度仍远未到各国央行欢呼庆祝的时候。通胀似乎跟随着原油和粮食成本而下降了，但是一些政策制定者同时又担心通胀并没有足够快的降低到一个可以容忍的水平。他们所关注的是高油价在暂时推高通胀的同时，可能已经伤害了经济的潜在增长率。如果真是这样，GDP的缓慢增长也许并不能够对经济产生足够的缓冲来使通胀更低。
That possibility was outlined by Athanasios Orphanides, of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) rate-setting council, at the “ECB and Its Watchers” conference in Frankfurt, on September 5th. An increase in the relative price of oil raises the costs of energy-intensive production, making some plant and machinery unprofitable. An oil shock could even leave the economy with a smaller margin of spare capacity if it harms output more than spending. For this reason, policymakers need to be careful not to overstimulate the economy when an oil shock hits. Indeed one of the policy errors that led to the 1970s stagflation, said Mr Orphanides, was to overlook the effect of dearer oil on viable output.
9月5日，在德国法兰克福召开的欧洲央行观察家会议上，欧洲央行利率管理委员会的欧菲尼德斯描述出了上述可能性。石油相对价格的上涨会提高能源密集型产品的成本，这使得一些工厂和机械行业无利可图。如果油价的冲击对产量的影响超过消费支出，那么这甚至会使经济中的闲置生产能力更少。正是由于这个原因，政策制定者们需要小心谨慎，当油价冲击来临时，不要过度刺激经济。欧菲尼德斯先生表示，事实上导致上个世纪70年代滞胀的一个政策性失误就是忽视了高油价对可行性产出的影响。
A recent study by the OECD concludes that oil prices at $120 a barrel could over the years reduce potential output by a total of as much as 4% in America, and by 2% in the euro area (which uses less oil for each unit of GDP). Because machinery is upgraded only slowly, this impact is likely to feed through gradually, initially shaving 0.2 percentage points a year off America’s potential GDP growth.
经合组织最近的一份研究表明，未来几年如果石油价格保持120美元一桶，会使美国的潜在总产出减少4%，欧元区减少2%（因为欧元区单位GDP的油耗低）。由于工业品的提价比较缓慢，这种影响的输送是渐进的，并且在一开始会使美国潜在GDP的增长减少0.2个百分点。
Much depends on how other costs adjust. If firms can pass on part of the increased oil bill in lower real wages (through either higher prices or less generous pay deals), a larger chunk of the capital stock will remain viable. That may be happening in America, where hourly wage growth is well below inflation; the brunt of the oil shock has been borne by workers. In the euro area, by contrast, there are more signs that wages are picking up in response to recent inflation. Jean-Claude Trichet, the ECB’s chief, has warned that the effect of dear oil on potential growth “should not be considered negligible”. The bank’s anxiety about it may prove a barrier to swift interest-rate cuts.
而更多的则是取决于其它成本如何调整。如果公司能够在保持较低实际工资的同时，传递出油价上涨的部分成本（通过提高产品价格和降低慷慨的薪酬待遇），那么拥有较大则本存量的企业还是可以活下去的。而这更有可能发生在美国，因为美国的时薪增长远低于通胀；油价震动的冲击已经被工人消化了。相比在欧元区，很多迹象表明工资正在响应通胀率而上升。欧洲央行行长让-克洛德·特里谢已经警告，高油价对潜在产出增长的影响”不应该被认为是可以忽略的”。因此央行的担忧也许证明它将成为立刻降息的障碍。
译者：jyjnl http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=14065&extra=page%3D1