[2008.08.30] 太阳能：重振硅谷

Solar power
太阳能

Silicon rally
重振硅谷

Aug 28th 2008
From The Economist print edition

One shortage in the solar-panel business gives way to another
太阳电池板产业的短缺接踵而来

FOR 40 years or so, the price of solar panels fell steadily, as volumes grew and technology improved. But in 2004 Germany enormously increased subsidies for solar power, prompting a surge in demand. The supply of pure silicon, the main component of most solar cells, did not keep pace. Its price rose from $25 a kilogram in 2003 to as much as $250 this year, abruptly halting the downward march in the price of panels. If making energy from sunlight is ever to become as cheap as burning fossil fuels, the price of silicon will have to fall.

大约40年来，随着产量增长和科技进步，太阳能电池板价格稳步下降。但2004年德国对太阳能的庞大补贴，促使太阳能电池板需求量激增。纯硅–这一太阳能电池的主要原料的供给却没有跟上其需求。纯硅的价格由2003年的25美元每公斤上涨到今年的250美元每公斤，出人意料的遏制了太阳能电池板价格的下行。无论何时，要是以太阳光来生产能源和燃烧化石燃料一样便宜，那么硅的价格将随之下降。

Happily, it seems likely to do so soon. Silicon producers, whose biggest customers were always chipmakers, have been slow to cater to the solar industry. They were scarred by the memory of the technology bust of 2001, which had weighed them down with excess capacity, and so delayed expansion-despite the boom in solar. Moreover, it takes three years or so to get a new plant going, so new silicon supplies are only just beginning to materialise.

幸而，看起来很快就会如此。最大客户通常是芯片制造商的硅制造商已渐渐迎合太阳能产业。他们对2001年的硅谷科技低迷记忆犹新，心有余悸，那时过剩的产能压得他们透不过气来，这样也就拖延了扩张–尽管太阳能产业对硅需求旺盛。此外，建设一个新的硅厂正常运转起来大约需要 3年的时间，所以，新的硅供应才刚刚开始落实。

New Energy Finance, a research firm, expects the output of silicon for the solar industry almost to double next year. It has asked big buyers and sellers what prices they have agreed on this year for silicon to be delivered in the future. The responses suggest that participants in the industry expect prices to fall by more than 40% next year, and over 70% by 2015 (see chart).

新能源财经（New Energy Finance），一家调研公司，预计供应太阳能产业的硅产量到明年几乎为现在的两倍。该公司就今年大的买家和卖家对未来硅交付价格的看法进行了调研。回应显示该行业参与调研者预计明年硅价有多于40%的降幅，到2015年有超过70%的降幅。（如图）

Other analysts are more cautious. HSBC, an investment bank, expects shortages to last throughout 2009. Cyrus Mewawalla of Westhall Capital, a broker, notes that predictions of silicon prices were notoriously unreliable even when chipmakers were the sole customers; the rise of the solar industry adds another variable.

其他分析者更为谨慎。汇丰（HSBC），一家投资银行，预计硅短缺会持续贯穿 2009年全年。Westhall Capital的经纪人Cyrus Mewawalla指出，即使芯片制造商是唯一买家，硅价预测都是出了名的不可靠；更别说太阳能产业对硅的需求增长又增加了其价格变数。

One source of uncertainty is demand. This may be softer than expected because of cuts in subsidies for solar power in Germany and Spain, and because of the looming expiry of a big tax-break in America. The chief source of uncertainty, though, is on the supply side-in particular, the troubled outlook for a host of planned new plants in Asia. Most observers expect that some of these will never materialise, others will take longer than scheduled to build and many will be less efficient than their backers claim. Earlier this year Trina Solar, a Chinese firm, abandoned plans for a big new silicon plant. Although more setbacks of this kind would slow the price’s fall in the short run, says Jenny Chase of New Energy Finance, the construction of a few less efficient, higher-cost plants will eventually create a tier of marginal producers, and so temper future price swings.

不确定性的一个来源是需求。因为德国与西班牙对太阳能补贴的削减，再加上美国日益迫近的对太阳能产业大幅税务减免的期满，实际硅价或许比预期的要走软。首要的不确地性来源为，尽管还位于供给这方–特别地，大量计划建在亚洲的生产车间的麻烦前景。多数观察家预计这其中的一些将根本无法建成，其他的也将花费超过预期时间来建成，而且许多将不及其支持者宣称的那般有效率。今年早些时候天合光能（Trina Solar）–一家中国公司，放弃了一项新的大型硅生产车间的计划。尽管更多诸如此类的挫折会放缓硅价格短期内的下降，新能源财经的Jenny Chase说，为数不多的低效、高成本硅厂的架构将最终产生一些具有微弱优势的生产商，从而缓和未来硅价格的起伏。

Yet even if the silicon price falls, other bottlenecks may well appear. The first step in making solar cells is to shape silicon into ingots and then slice it into wafers. Ingot- and wafer-makers hope a surge in the silicon supply will expose a lack of capacity in their fields. Others wonder whether there will be enough of the specialist chemicals that coat cells. HSBC predicts that the solar industry will grow by 45% a year until 2012. Such searing expansion is bound to cause more growing pains.

然而即使硅价下跌，其他瓶颈也很可能显现。生产太阳能电池的第一步是把硅浇铸成硅锭，之后切为晶片。硅锭和硅晶片制造商希望硅需求激增将暴露出他们领域产能的不足。另一些人怀疑是否有足够的为太阳能电池提供外涂层的特殊化学品。汇丰（HSBC）预计到2012年太阳能产业将以每年增长45%的速度增长。如此燎原的扩张势必引发更多的发展困难。

译者：蓝冰　http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=13669&extra=page%3D1