[2008.08.16] 北京经济：冲刺金牌

Beijing’s economy
北京经济

Going for gold
冲刺金牌

Aug 14th 2008 | BEIJING
From The Economist print edition

The Olympics have not brought Beijing’s businesses the boom they hoped for
奥运到来，预期伴随而来的经济繁荣却没有到来

YABAO ROAD in Beijing’s embassy district is normally bustling. Russian traders scour its wholesale shops for furs and boots. Hawkers throng the pavements. The street is jammed with taxis and pedicabs. But the Olympic games have begun. Yabao Road is now strangely quiet.

位于北京使馆区的雅宝路平日里总是熙熙攘攘。俄罗斯商人们逛遍批发毛皮、靴子的店铺。小贩们沿街叫卖。各种货运车穿梭于街上。但是，奥运会开始了，此时的雅宝路出奇的安静。

Only a few months ago many shopkeepers, restaurants and hotels were expecting these to be boom times as big-spending foreigners flocked in for the games. Today many businessmen in and around the capital are disgruntled. So too are other citizens who find that even some outdoor food markets have been closed as part of an Olympic spruce-up.

几个月以前，许多商家、餐馆和旅店还满心期待大批外国消费者在奥运之际涌入会给他们带来无限商机。如今，不但许多首都或周围的商人都闷闷不乐，其他一些居民也发现，（政府）为了奥运期间街面整洁，甚至关闭了一些露天食品市场。

This should be a busy season for Yabao Road, as Russians arrive to make bulk orders of clothing for the winter and other cheap goods. But Chinese traders say the Russians, like other foreigners, have suffered from the tighter visa requirements introduced by China in the build-up to the games. They say police checkpoints ringing the city and restrictions on lorry traffic entering Beijing have made it much more difficult to bring in goods. One shipping-company manager says that demand from traders for commercial space in Yabao Road has fallen sharply.

（每年）大批俄罗斯人来到这，大批购买冬季衣物和其他廉价商品，此时本应是雅宝路的忙碌期。但许多中国商人表示，俄国人和其他外国人一样，受到了中国为筹备奥运而启动的更加严格签证限制。他们称，由于安检关口遍布全城和运货卡车进入受限，进货更加困难了。一位轮船公司负责人表示，雅宝路商业需求大幅下降。

Official predictions for foreign visitor numbers in August are vague. Figures ranging from 400,000 to 500,000 are commonly cited (in August 2007 there were 420,000 visits by foreigners). But for many months these estimates have hardly been revised, despite signs that there are far fewer arrivals from abroad than expected. In June visits to Beijing by foreigners (including citizens of Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan) were down by nearly 20% compared with June 2007. Figures this week showed that in July they fell by more than 30% compared with last year, to 270,000, with Russian arrivals down by 47%.

官方给出的八月外国游客预期人数并不精确，通常是40万到50万的预计范围（2007年外国游客为42万人次）。但是尽管有迹象显示，外国游客人数比前期预计大大减少，上述预计多月来却并没有调整。6月抵京的外地（包括香港、澳门和台湾）游客人数比去年同期下降了将近20%。本周的数据显示，7月上述人数比去年下降逾30%，跌至27万人次，其中俄罗斯下降47%。

Officials say one-fifth of rooms at the city’s 120-odd designated Olympic hotels were unoccupied after the games started on August 8th (they finish on the 24th). But no figures have been published for the 700 others. Price-cutting at many hotels suggests there may be a glut of rooms. Some bars and restaurants say business is lacklustre too. The owner of one upmarket nightclub says he had been expecting a packed house “all night, every night up until dawn” during the games. But in fact business is much as usual.

官方称，在8月8日奥运开幕后（将于24后闭幕），北京120来家的奥运签约旅店，五分之一的房间空闲。还有700间并未对外发布。许多旅店纷纷降价，预示着或许房屋供过于求。一些酒吧和餐厅也表示生意一般。一位高档夜店的所有人呢表示，他曾预计奥运期间”整晚、每晚通宵” 都客满，但是实际上，生意跟往日差不了多少。

At least the police are not rigorously enforcing a threatened ban on carousing after 2am. They have, however, cracked down on prostitution, depriving many of Beijing’s seedier bars and night-shift taxi drivers of business. Olympic traffic controls and security measures, as well as the lure of sport on television, seem to be keeping people at home anyway.

至少警方这次不强制禁止凌晨2点后的狂欢行为了。尽管他们取缔了卖淫活动，并使许多低级酒吧和夜间出租停业。无论如何，奥运期间交通管制和安全措施联同电视体育比赛的吸引力，似乎使得人们闭门不出。

Manufacturers are also suffering more than they had expected. To curb pollution during the games, the authorities have closed all construction sites in Beijing as well as dozens of factories and quarries in and around the city for two months. Others have been ordered to cut production. Some, such as the Beijing Eastern Chemical Works, are keeping workers occupied by getting them to repair machinery. But at the nearby plant of Beijing East Asia Aluminium Industry, a worker says that hundreds of employees are staying at home on basic pay. The factory has not been ordered to shut, she says, but has had to close because of transport problems caused by the games. Officials have given warning that many more factories could be closed if more drastic measures are needed to clear the (still smoggy) air.

制造商们也遭受了比预期更高的打击。为了遏制奥运期间的污染，官方关闭了北京的所有建筑工地、市内及周围的许多工厂和采石场，为期2个月。其他工厂被勒令减产。包括北京东方化工厂在内的一些工厂让工人们修理机器。北京东亚铝业有限公司临近的一家工厂的一位工人表示，许许多多工人待在家里并享受基本工资。她说，工厂不是被命令关闭的，而是不得不关闭，因为奥运使得运输成为问题。官方已发布通告，为了改善空气质量（烟尘仍然笼罩），如有需要，可能会关闭更多的工厂。

Many economists say the disruptions are unlikely to have a lasting impact on economic growth in the city. Last year Beijing’s output grew by 12.3%. In the first six months of 2008 it grew by 11% compared with the same period a year ago. Officials say this pace is likely to be maintained for the rest of the year, in line with a slight slowing of China’s overall growth-rate. JP Morgan Chase, an investment bank, said in a recent research note that industrial and construction activity hit by the games should “rebound” after the Olympics. In the meantime, the games are not winning any medals from Beijing’s businessmen.

许多经济学家都表示，生产中断不大可能对北京经济增长造成长远影响。去年，北京产出增长了12.3%。2008年的头6个月比去年同期增长了11%。官方称，今年接下去的几个月很有可能保持这个增长速度，（尽管）中国的总体经济增长速度有轻微下滑。投资银行JP摩根大通曾表示，最近的研究显示，奥运影响的工业和建筑业活动将在比赛结束后”重新兴起”。在此期间，北京的商业人士不会给奥运颁发奖牌。

译者：mxrruler  http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=13323&extra=page%3D1