[2008.08.16] 格鲁吉亚之战：俄罗斯的复兴

The war in Georgia
格鲁吉亚之战

Russia resurgent
俄罗斯的复兴

Aug 14th 2008
From The Economist print edition

The war in Georgia is a victory for Russia. The West’s options are limited, but it needs to pursue them firmly
俄罗斯成为了格鲁吉亚之战的赢家。西方势力虽显无奈，但仍需不懈努力探求解决之道

ON THE night of August 7th, Mikheil Saakashvili, Georgia’s president, embarked on an ill-judged assault on South Ossetia, one of his country’s two breakaway enclaves. Russian tanks, troops and aircraft poured across the border. Just five days later, after pulverising the Georgian armed forces, Russia announced that it was ending its operations.
8月7日夜间，格鲁吉亚总统萨卡什维利命令向南奥塞梯发动了极为无脑的武装突袭，而南正是两个急于脱离格统治的异族之一。俄罗斯的坦克、步兵和飞机潮水般的涌过边境，仅用5天就彻底摧毁了格鲁吉亚的武装并宣布军事行动的结束。

This brutal and efficient move (see article) was a victory for Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president-turned-prime-minister, not just over Georgia but also over the West, which has been trying to prise away countries on Russia’s western borders and turn them democratic, market-oriented and friendly. Now that Russia has shown what can happen to those that distance themselves from it, doing so will be harder in future.
此次粗暴但高效的行动是普京辞去总统就任总理后的一次胜利；这不仅是对格鲁吉亚的胜利，更是对西方势力和平演变俄罗斯东部边境，使之民主化、市场化和亲西方化图谋的胜利。俄罗斯让那些尝试脱离其势力范围的国家尝到了苦果，并告知世人此类尝试在未来将变得更为艰难。

Living next to the bear
与熊同眠

Russia has made perfunctory attempts to justify the invasion. It claimed that it was defending Russian citizens. This excuse, as Sweden’s foreign minister tartly noted, recalled Hitler’s justifications of Nazi invasions. Anyway, most of the “Russian citizens” in South Ossetia and Abkhazia had been handed their passports fairly recently, presumably in preparation for this foray.
俄罗斯在对其入侵行为进行辩解的时候表现的非常敷衍，宣称此举是为了保护俄罗斯公民。这个借口被瑞典外交部长尖锐的讽刺为”让人们回忆起希特勒为纳粹入侵所进行的辩护”。总之大部分在南奥塞梯和阿布哈西亚的所谓俄罗斯公民最近才被发放了护照，这个举动被推测为此次侵略的准备工作。

Similarly, Russian attempts to draw analogies with NATO’s bombing of Serbia in 1999 and its encouragement of Kosovo’s independence, or with the American-led invasion of Iraq, do not wash. The latest fighting in South Ossetia may have been triggered by the Georgians, but it was largely engineered by the Russians, who have, over the years, fanned the flames of the conflict. As for the Iraqi parallel, not even the Russians pretend that Mr Saakashvili has ever been a threat to his neighbours and to the world.
俄国人试图将此次事件同1999年北约轰炸塞尔维亚并且鼓励科索沃独立、美国组织对伊拉克的入侵相提并论，但这种说法难以服众。最近一次发生在南奥塞梯的交火的确是由格鲁吉亚人引起的，但是主要的推动者却是俄罗斯人，他们长年累月的给该地区的冲突煽风点火。与对伊战争相比，萨卡什维利甚至都没有被俄罗斯人假想成对邻邦和世界的威胁。

This was no sudden response to provocation, but a long-planned move. Mr Putin resents the West’s influence in former Soviet countries such as Georgia and Ukraine, and he dislikes the puckish Mr Saakashvili intensely. He may not yet have ousted him (indeed, ordinary Georgians have rallied to support their president-so far). But by thumping down Russia’s military fist in the Caucasus, he has made clear that Russia will not tolerate excessive signs of independence from its neighbours, including bids to join the NATO alliance.
格鲁吉亚之战不是对公然挑衅做出的突然反应，而是一个经过长期精心策划的行动。普京同志非常反感西方势力对格鲁吉亚和乌克兰等前苏联国家的影响，尤其不喜欢不受控制的萨卡什维利同志。虽然普京还没有把他赶下台，而且实际上多数格鲁吉亚人截至目前还团结在一起支持他们的总统；但是通过重兵出击高加索地区，普京清楚的表示出俄罗斯绝不容忍邻邦表达出过分独立的意愿，包括对加入北约的渴望。

This new Russian imperialism is bad news for all its neighbours. Mr Saakashvili is an impetuous nationalist who has lately tarnished his democratic credentials. His venture into South Ossetia was foolish and possibly criminal. But, unlike Mr Putin, he has led his country in a broadly democratic direction, curbed corruption and presided over rapid economic growth that has not relied, as Russia’s mostly does, on high oil and gas prices. America’s George Bush was right, if rather slow, to declare on August 11th that it was unacceptable in the 21st century for Russia to have invaded a sovereign neighbouring state and to threaten a democratically elected government.
新俄罗斯帝国主义的复兴对他所有的邻邦来说无疑是坏消息。萨卡什维利是一个冲动的民族主义者，他最近所为有损其民主声名。他在南奥塞梯的行为不仅愚蠢，并且很可能已经构成犯罪。与普京不同，他已经把他的国家明确的领上了民主主义的方向，抑制腐败、引导经济高速增长，而且其增长的根基并不是像俄罗斯那样依靠石油和天然气的高价格。布什在8月11日的讲话虽然显得很是滞后，但是却很有道理：在21世纪的今天，俄罗斯入侵拥有独立主权的邻国，并威胁民主选举产生的政府，这是无论如何不能被接受的。

Yet the hard truth, for Georgians and others, is that pleas for military backing from the West in any confrontation with Russia are unlikely to be heeded. The Americans gave Mr Saakashvili token help when they transported Georgian troops home from Iraq (where 2,000 of them made up the third-largest allied contingent). And they have now sent in humanitarian aid in military aircraft and ships. But nobody is willing to risk a wider war with Russia over its claimed near-abroad. Among Russia’s immediate neighbours, only the Baltic states, which slipped into NATO when Russia was weak, can claim such protection.
对格鲁吉亚人来说，现实仍然很艰难：希望西方势力派遣军事援助来对抗俄罗斯的恳请根本无人理会；美国方面用将格鲁吉亚士兵从伊拉克运送回乡的方式向萨克什维利表示帮助，而这2000人组成的部队曾是联军中的第三大主力；同时美国还使用军机和舰只还输送人道主义援助物资。但是没有一个人愿意冒险在境外同俄罗斯进行深度战争。在俄罗斯所有的近邻中，只有位于波罗的海的国家可以申请西方势力的保护，因为他们在俄罗斯羽翼未丰的时候已经加入了北约组织。

That does not mean the West should do nothing in response to Russia’s aggression against Georgia. On the contrary, it still has influence over the Russians, who remain surprisingly sensitive about their international image. That is why Western leaders must make quite clear their outrage over the invasion and continued bombing of Georgia. Few have done that so far; the Italians and Germans in particular have been shamefully silent.
但这并不意味着西方势力对于俄罗斯入侵格鲁吉亚只能袖手旁观；相反，由于俄罗斯人非常注重其国际形象，所以西方势力还是可以对俄罗斯施加一定的影响。正是这个原因，西方政要才应必须清楚地重申他们对于此次入侵并持续轰炸格鲁吉亚的义愤。但是目前还没有什么人出头露面，特别是意大利和德国，沉默的程度已经让他们失去了应有的外交体面。

Above all, the West must make plain to Mr Putin that Russia’s invasion of Georgia means an end to business as usual, even if it continues to work with him on issues such as Iran. America has already cancelled some military exercises with Russia. America and the Europeans should ensure that Russia is not let into more international clubs, such as the Paris-based OECD or the World Trade Organisation. Now would also be an appropriate time to strengthen the rich-country G7, which excludes Russia, at the expense of the G8, which includes it.
至关重要的一点是西方势力必须让普京同志明白，俄罗斯入侵格鲁吉亚会导致所有合作的终止，即使还可能保留针对伊朗问题这样的个别合作。美国已经取消了同俄罗斯的军演计划，他还应该和欧洲一起抵制俄罗斯参与到更多的国际组织中，比如总部在巴黎的经合组织以及世贸组织。同时也可以考虑是否只是加强西方7国首脑会议的合作，而不是带有俄罗斯的8国集团合作。

The European Union, which has too often split into camps of appeasers and tough-talkers over Russia, should drop negotiations on a new partnership and co-operation agreement. Visa restrictions should be tightened, and the personal finances abroad of top Russian officials probed more carefully. The EU should work harder at reducing its dependence on Russian energy imports and improving internal energy connections-and EU countries should stop striking bilateral deals with Russia.
在俄罗斯问题上，欧盟总是分裂为红脸和白脸两个阵营；但是现在应该在伙伴关系以及合作协议上重新考虑。签证限制应该更加严格，对于俄罗斯高官的境外个人金融产品应该改审查的更加仔细。欧盟应该努力摆脱对俄罗斯能源进口的依赖、发展联盟内的能源互助，并且欧盟各国应该终止同俄罗斯签订双边协定。

Let them in
急需维和人员

In the short term, none of this is likely to deter Russia from reasserting itself in the Caucasus if it feels inclined to do so. Together, though, such measures might give Mr Putin pause before trying anything similar elsewhere-for instance in Crimea, a part of Ukraine that is home not only to many thousands of Russians but also to Russia’s Black Sea fleet. The clearer the West’s displeasure, the better the chances of getting peacekeepers and monitors from other countries into Abkhazia and South Ossetia to replace the Russian troops which have been there as peacekeepers since the early 1990s, but which should leave as they are now clearly occupying forces.
只要俄罗斯需要再高加索地区重振雄风，上述所有手段在短期内都无法构成阻碍。但是这些方法组合起来也许可以让普京同志暂缓在其他地区如法炮制的脚步，比如位于乌克兰的克里木半岛，那里不仅是数以千计的俄罗斯人的故乡，更是俄罗斯黑海舰队的母港。西方势力所表现出的不满越是明显，从其他国家调派维和人员和观察员进入南奥塞梯以及阿布哈西亚的机会就越大；自90年代初期开始俄罗斯军队就驻扎在上述地区担任维和人员，但现他们现在已经很明显的是该地区的占领军，所以应该撤离。

Most importantly, although Mr Saakashvili’s foolishness makes admitting Georgia harder, Russia’s incursion should not delay plans to let Ukraine and Georgia into NATO. Russia’s aggression will make these countries, and others, keener than ever on joining. The worst outcome of this war would be for the West to allow Russia a veto over any sovereign country’s membership of either NATO or the EU.
最重要的是，即使萨卡什维利的愚蠢行为让准入变得更加艰难，乌克兰和格鲁吉亚加入北约组织的计划也不应该因为俄罗斯的入侵而遭到推迟。俄罗斯此举只会让这些以及其他的国家比以往的任何时刻都渴望加入北约。这个战争最糟糕的结果将会是西方势力容忍俄罗斯有权否定一个主权国家加入欧盟或者北约的意愿。

译者：Tidehunter    http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=13371&extra=page%3D1