[2008.07.26] 法国：萨科齐的进步

France
法国

Sarkozy’s progress
成也萨科齐

Jul 24th 2008
From The Economist print edition

France’s president is reforming his country more determinedly than many expected
法国总统锐意改革，超出众人预期

HE HAS been hard to ignore, but easy to write off. Ever since he was elected French president in May 2007, Nicolas Sarkozy has been breathlessly hyperactive, in both his personal and his official life. Perhaps because of this, cynical observers have tended to dismiss him as a showman who talks the talk but seldom walks the walk. Our verdict on his first anniversary in early May was that his presidency had, thus far, been a disappointment.

他难以为人所忽视，但是却很容易为人们嗤之以鼻。自从2007年五月问鼎法国总统后，萨科奇对其公私生活倾注了巨大的热情和精力。可能正是鉴于此，辛辣的观察家们倾向于将其定位为一个光说不练的作秀者，对其不屑一顾。五月的早些时候，萨科奇任满周年，我们认为到目前为止他的作为让人失望至极。

Yet in recent weeks Mr Sarkozy’s government has managed to pass a string of reforms-and to do so without running into that traditional bugbear of French presidents, mass protests in the streets. How has he achieved it? In his early months Mr Sarkozy showed himself too easily distracted and overly prone to compromise. He then had to cope simultaneously with a deteriorating economic outlook and a humiliating dive in popularity. None of these things has got any better. And yet Mr Sarkozy has bolstered the momentum of his reforms thanks to three largely unrelated factors.

然而，最近几周，萨科奇政府成功的通过了一系列改革–而且没有陷入历代法国总统的怪圈–大规模的街头示威游行。他是怎样实现的？在任期的头几个月里，萨科奇表现得心不在焉，极易妥协。此后，他又必须同时应对每况愈下的经济前景以及令他颜面扫地的民意下跌。就解决这些问题而言，到目前为止没有任何起色。然而，得益于三大基本上毫无瓜葛的因素，萨科奇稳住了其改革的力度。

The first is that he and his advisers realised, perhaps belatedly, that there really is no alternative； that, on the back of his thumping majorities in both the presidential and parliamentary elections last year, Mr Sarkozy has to deliver his manifesto pledges of radical change and a promise to put France back to work if he is to retain any credibility at all with voters. A second factor is the continuing weakness of the opposition Socialist Party, which has helped to offset his own deep personal unpopularity. And the third, perhaps most decisive and least expected, has been the taming of France’s notoriously bolshy trade unions

第一大因素是他和他的顾问可能后知后觉，最终意识到他没有它路可循：在去年总统和国会选举中大获全胜后，如果萨科奇还想在选民心中保留些许可信度，他必须兑现其公开承诺：进行彻底的变革，使法国重回正轨。第二大因素则是反对派社会党的持续衰弱。即便萨科奇深陷个人民意尽失的泥沼，反对党的羸弱也着实拉了他一把。第三大因素，可能最具决定性也最初出乎人们的意料：臭名昭著极端激进的工会向政府低头

That the French president is sticking to his reform agenda is good news not just for France but for all of Europe. Until recently, the euro-area economy was holding up surprisingly well in the face of an American slowdown and a troubled world economy. But it seems to have stalled in the second quarter: growth has more or less stopped in Germany and Italy, and countries experiencing property busts, such as Spain and Ireland, are falling off a cliff. France is doing better than some others, but it too is stuttering. Mr Sarkozy’s reforms will not have quick enough effects to help much, but they are essential in the long run if the economy is to become both more flexible and more competitive.

法国总统坚持其改革计划，不仅之于法国，对于整个欧洲都是一个好消息。直到最近，尽管面对美国经济的下滑，世界经济困扰重重，欧元区的经济仍旧表现出色，令人惊讶。但是，似乎在第二季度，它已经裹足不前了。德国和意大利的经济增长大约已经停滞。而那些经历过地产崩溃的国家，如西班牙和爱尔兰，其经济正一落千丈。法国比其他一些国家表现出色，但也绝非高歌猛进。萨科奇的改革将难以快速见效，从较大程度上缓解危机。但是从长远看，如果法国经济要想变得既灵活又富于竞争力，那么这些改革至关重要。

The economist and the populist
平民论者和经济学家

A sharp economic slowdown, which could easily tip into a recession, will undoubtedly test Mr Sarkozy’s resolve, but so far he seems, correctly, to have concluded that it makes changing France more pressing, not less. The real danger now is not that he will give up on reform, but that recession will reinforce his worst populist tendencies.

急剧的经济下滑容易发展成为经济衰退，这无疑将考验萨科奇的决心。但是到目前为止，他似乎正确地做出论断¬–经济下滑使法国的变革更为紧要，而非无关痛痒。目前真正的危险不是他会放弃改革，而是经济衰退将进一步使其民心尽失。

For there are in truth two Sarkozys. One is an economic liberaliser who has long insisted that France must change, that French people must work harder and that the entire system needs to undergo a complete rupture, or break with the past. This is the president who is pushing ahead grittily with his economic reforms.

因为事实上存在着两个萨科奇。一个是经济自由主义者，长久以来坚持法国必须改革，法国人民必须更加勤奋，整个机制需要经历一次同过去的彻底决裂或是断绝。这是一位坚韧不拔地推行经济改革的总统。

The other Sarkozy is an economic nationalist who talks grandly about the importance of protecting jobs and factories, distrusts both free-traders and the market, and frets publicly about the downside to globalisation. This is the president who attacks the European Central Bank at almost every opportunity for its rigid monetary policy, criticises the European Commission for its promotion of competition and is seeking to undermine the Doha world trade talks because they threaten to cut European Union farm subsidies.

而另一个萨科奇是一个狭隘的经济民族主义者，大肆吹捧保护岗位和工厂重要性，对自由贸易主义者和市场满腹猜忌，同时在公共场合抱怨全球化的弊端。他变成另一位总统：一有机会就攻击欧洲中央银行死板的货币政策，指责欧盟委员会推动竞争，寻找机会破坏多哈贸易谈判，因为该谈判威胁欧盟降低其农业补贴。

The good Mr Sarkozy could yet jolt the French out of their long economic decline. He has time on his side. As part of the constitutional changes that he got through parliament this week, presidents are now limited to two terms. That in theory gives him until 2017. But if he is to succeed, he must hold back his bad, populist instincts. In many ways France, Europe’s second-biggest economy, will be decisive for the future of reform across the entire euro area. Liberalisation in Germany is blocked by coalition politics; for different reasons, the leaders of Spain and Italy are disinclined to pursue it. But if France can successfully set the example, everybody else will be forced to sit up and take note.

一个好的萨科奇仍然能够将法国推出长期经济下滑的绝境，他有足够的时间。本周他将其宪法改革交由议会审批，其中一部分内容就是将总统的任期限制为两届。从理论上来讲，这将使他能执政到2017。但是如果他想赢得连任，他必须收敛起他那哗众取宠的本质。从许多方面来看，法国作为欧洲第二大经济体，将对涵盖整个欧元区的改革的未来，起至关重要的作用。德国的经济自由主义被政治联盟掣肘；为了各自不同的原因，西班牙和意大利的领导人不愿推行改革。但是如果法国能成功地做出表率，其余的各国将被迫对其给予更多关注。

译者：vicent1986   http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=12906&extra=page%3D1