Bosnia’s future
波黑的未来
Balkan end-games
巴尔干终结游戏
Jul 17th 2008 | SARAJEVO
From The Economist print edition
The long and winding road towards the European Union
通往欧盟的道路漫长而又曲折
SARAJEVO has not looked this good since it hosted the winter Olympics in 1984. Most striking is the restoration of the Hotel Evropa, built in 1882 but left in ruins ever since it was gutted by Serb shells in 1992. Even gloomy Bosnians can see that Sarajevo has entered a new phase in its history. Most reconstruction after the 1992-95 war is over and many new buildings are going up, including one that is planned to be the tallest in the Balkans.
自1984年举办冬季奥运会以来，萨拉热窝从没如此看好。最引人注目的是萨拉热窝要修复欧洲大酒店（Hotel Evropa）.建于1882年的欧洲大酒店在1992年被塞尔维亚炸毁内部装置而成为一片废墟。现在，甚至就连悲观的波斯尼亚人也认为萨拉热窝已进入一个历史上的新阶段。在1992–1995年的战争结束后，大多重建工作已经结束，许多新建筑正拔地而起，其中还有计划建成巴尔干地区的一座最高楼。
Times are changing in politics, too. A stabilisation agreement with the European Union has just come into force. It is a first step that should lead to eventual EU membership. The agreement, signed last month after Bosnia’s politicians ended 18 months of political deadlock, marks what one weary diplomat calls “the end of the beginning”. Bosnia won the deal only after its intransigent leaders wore down their EU partners into accepting a watered-down version of reform for Bosnia’s police.
时机也在改变政治。波斯尼亚同欧盟达成的一项稳定协议刚刚生效。该协议是最波斯尼亚终加入欧盟的第一步。在波斯尼亚政治家结束18个月的政治僵局后，上月签署的协议给出的标志诚如厌倦不堪的外交官所言是”开始的结局”。只有在其顽固的领导人让其欧盟伙伴接受波斯尼亚警察改革的精简版本，波斯尼亚方可在协议胜出。
Miroslav Lajcak, the international pro-consul in Bosnia, argues that most of its 3.8m people now put jobs and prosperity above the old national questions. Yet they keep voting for nationalist parties. With local elections due in October, the country may now enter a fresh period of deadlock, as Serb, Croat and Bosniak (Muslim) leaders again champion the interests of their own people, not of the country as a whole. All the arguments that have dogged Bosnia since the Yugoslav collapse in 1991 could come to the fore again.
一位驻波黑的国际代理领事Miroslav Lajcak认为,国内380万人口中的大多数在当前会把就业和经济繁荣问题放在旧的国内问题之上。他们仍会对民族主义政党投票。随着预计在10月份举行的地方选举的临近，塞尔维亚族，克罗地亚族和波什尼亚克族（穆斯林族）的领导人再次把国内人民的利益放到首位，而不是把国家看作一个整体，波黑现正走向陷入僵局的一个新阶段。自南斯拉夫在1991年崩溃以来，困扰波斯尼亚的所有争论再次崭露头角。
When the war ended in the 1995 Dayton agreement, Bosnia was divided into two entities, the Republika Srpska and the Bosniak-Croat federation. The first is dominated by Milorad Dodik, who often threatens a referendum on independence. The second is riven by divisions, not only between Bosniaks and Croats, but also among Bosniak leaders. One result is a budget crisis, as the federation has run out of money. The new EU deal should mean that Bosnian leaders can start on the reforms that are needed to move towards EU membership-though the Irish no to the Lisbon treaty has cast a cloud over all future EU enlargement.
在战争以在1995年达成代顿协议而告终时，波黑便由塞族共和国和波黑联邦两个实体组成。塞族共和国由多迪奇(Milorad Dodik)领导.多迪奇经常威胁要对独立举行全民公投。而波黑联邦则存有分裂，不只在波什尼亚克族和克罗地亚族之间，而且还在波什尼亚克族领导人之间。在财政支出用尽之时，波黑联邦便出现了财政危机的后果。欧盟新协定应意味着波黑领导人可以开始实施通往欧盟成员国–尽管爱尔兰对里斯本条约的否决给欧盟扩大投下了阴影–的改革举措。
In any case, Bosnians might be forgiven for thinking that the EU will bend to their will, not the other way around. In April Serbia, which had been told it could not have an EU stabilisation agreement until it co-operated fully with The Hague war-crimes tribunal, was suddenly given one as a bribe to get voters to back pro-European parties. The bribe worked: Serbia has just installed a pro-European government. But Bosnians concluded that, even when the EU sets tough conditions, political expediency will find a way round them.
不管怎样，波斯尼亚民众持有欧盟将会对其意志有所妥协，而非反过来的想法可被谅解。塞尔维亚曾被告知在未与海牙战争罪行法庭展开充分合作之前，不可能同欧盟达成一项稳定协议。在4月，塞尔维亚突然获准签署稳定协议的举动只是作为获得选民去支持亲欧洲党派的一个贿赂。行贿的确行之有效：塞尔维亚刚刚设置了一个亲欧洲党派。但波斯尼亚人得出的结论是，即使欧盟设置的条件苛刻，政治上的权宜之计终会找到一个解决方法。
In principle the reforms demanded by Brussels should strengthen Bosnia’s weak state institutions. But this is not what Mr Dodik wants: he prefers the opposite. He can argue that there is a precedent. Even before the union of Serbia and Montenegro broke up in 2006, the two parts negotiated with the EU as separate entities, not as a single country. Alida Vracic, who runs Populari, a think-tank, believes that the key is to show Bosnians that there are real benefits from EU integration. “When we no longer need visas,” she says, “they will understand what this is all about.”
在原则上，布鲁塞尔所要求的改革应可令波黑软弱的国家机构强大起来。但这并非多迪克总理所希望的：他的愿望倒与此相反。多迪克争辩说曾有先例。即便在联盟塞尔维亚和黑山在2006年解体前，两方作为单独实体与欧盟谈判，而不是作为一个单一国家。智囊机构populari的管理人Alida Vracic认为关键是要表明，波黑民众可从欧盟一体化中获取实实在在的利益。”当我们不再需要签证时，”她说，”他们会明白所有这一切意味着什么” 。
译者：captain21 http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=12795&extra=page%3D1