[2008.07.05] 油价：莫怪投机者

The oil price
油价

Don’t blame the speculators
别怪投机者

Jul 3rd 2008
From The Economist print edition

Politicians who try to make oil cheaper by restraining speculation will just make things worse
那些想通过限制投机行为来降低油价的政治家只会火上浇油

ALTHOUGH the price of oil continues to hit new records, it has in one respect been a quiet week on the oil markets. America’s lawmakers are celebrating Independence Day by taking a few days off. That has led to a brief interruption in the torrent of proposals aimed at curbing speculation.

尽管攀升的油价不断地创造出新的纪录，可本周的石油市场却是一片静悄悄。因为美国立法者在休假以庆祝独立日，这暂时打断了洪水般的关于抑制投机的提案。

Ten different bills on the subject are in the works in Congress. Before the House of Representatives shut up shop, it approved one by a vote of 402-19. America’s politicians are not the only ones to have fingered speculators for the feverish rise in the price of oil and other raw materials. Italy’s finance minister believes that there is a “magnum of speculative champagne” included in the price of each barrel. Austria wants the European Union to impose a tax on speculation. Saudi Arabia and other big oil producers routinely blame the price on frothy markets, rather than idle wells.

十个不同的法案正在国会里起草。在众议院休息之前，它已以402比19的投票通过了其中一个。不只美国的政客指认投机是石油和其他原料价格疯涨的罪魁祸手，意大利的财政部长也持相同观点：每一桶石油里都有1.5升的”投机酒”掺入其中。奥地利希望欧盟能够对投机课税。沙特阿拉伯和其他的一些石油出产大国则像往常一样把高价归咎于泡沫市场，而非闲置的油井。

The accusers point to the link between the volume of transactions on the futures markets and the price of oil. Since 2004 the near tripling of trading in oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the world’s biggest market for the stuff, has neatly coincided with a tripling in the price.

这些控诉者点出了油价和期货市场上交易量之间的关系。自2004年起，世界最大石油交易市场纽约商业交易所涨了近两倍的交易额与涨了两倍的油价完全契合。

What is more, investing in oil has become something of a fad. Commodities traders and hedge funds with long experience have been joined by less expert sorts, including pension funds and individuals. All this, the theory runs, is contributing to a bubble in commodities. The rush of punters betting on higher prices is begetting a self-fulfilling prophecy: it is the tide of new investment, rather than inadequate supply or irrepressible demand, that is pushing the price of oil ever higher.

此外，投资石油已变得狂热。除商品交易商和有长期经验的对冲基金外，还参杂着包括养老基金和个人等这样不甚专业的投资者。所有的这些按照理论来说都会堆出商品泡沫。这些涌入的买入者赌着价格再涨高，自己创造了自己实现的预言：不是供应不足或需求太大，而是一轮轮新的投资把价格推上一个又一个的高峰。

Follow the oil, not the futures
跟着石油，不跟期货

This reasoning holds obvious appeal for those looking for a scapegoat. But there is little evidence to support it. For one thing, the surge in investment in oil futures is not that large relative to the global trade in oil. Barclays Capital, an investment bank, calculates that “index funds”, which have especially exercised the politicians because they always bet on rising prices, account for only 12% of the outstanding contracts on NYMEX and have a value equivalent to just 2% of the world’s yearly oil consumption.

这种推论显然对那些要找替罪羊的人来说很有吸引力。但是鲜有证据支持它。第一，原油期货市场激增的投资与全球原油交易并不是那么的相关。投资银行巴克莱资本公司计算出”指数基金”——政客很为之忧虑，因为它们总是在涨价上下赌注——只在纽约交易所未平仓合约中占12%，而且只价值世界每年石油消费的2%。

More importantly, neither index funds nor other speculators ever buy any physical oil. Instead, they buy futures and options which they settle with a cash payment when they fall due. In essence, these are bets on which way the oil price will move. Since the real currency of such contracts is cash, rather than barrels of crude, there is no limit to the number of bets that can be made. And since no oil is ever held back from the market, these bets do not affect the price of oil any more than bets on a football match affect the result.

其次，更重要的是，不管是指数基金还是其余投机商都没有买过任何实质原油。相反，他们只买期货和期权，并且都是用一到期就以现金支付的方式结算的。实质上，这是些赌油价走向的赌注。既然这些交易用的是现金，而不是一桶桶的原油，那这里就不应该对投入资金的多少有限制。既然没有来自市场的石油被囤积，这些资金的影响不会比一场足球比赛的赌注对比赛结果的影响大。

The market for nickel provides a good illustration of this. Speculative investment in the metal has been growing steadily over the past year, yet its price has fallen by half. By the same token, the prices of several commodities that are not traded on any exchanges, such as iron ore and rice, have been rising almost as fast as that of oil.

镍市场的例子对此就是很好的解释。对镍的投机投资在去年稳步上升，然而其价格却下降了一半。基于同一理由，有几种没在任何交易所交易的商品的价格，比如铁矿石和大米，和石油价格的增长速度一样快。

Speculators do play an important role in setting the price of oil and other raw materials. But they do so based on their expectations of future trends in supply and demand, not on whims. If they had somehow managed to push prices to unjustified heights, then demand would contract, leaving unsold pools of oil.

投机商在石油和其他原料的定价上的确起着很重要的作用。但是他们是基于他们对未来供需趋势的预期来投资的，而不是一时兴起而为之。如果他们有决定要推高价格达到一个无理的高度，那么需求应该会缩小，留下的会是一堆堆没卖出的石油。

The futures market does sometimes signal that prices are likely to rise, which might prompt speculators to hoard oil in anticipation. But it is not signalling that at the moment, and there is no sign of hoarding. In the absence of rising stocks, it is hard to argue that the oil markets have lost their grip on reality.

期货市场有时会发出价格可能要上扬的信号，这可能促使投机商囤积石油。但是现在它没有发现这样的信号，而且也没有迹象表明有人囤积。在缺少上涨的存货时，很难说石油市场已经实际失去了控制。

Some claim that oil producers are in effect hoarding oil below the ground. But there is also little sign of that, either among companies or countries: all big exporters bar Saudi Arabia are pumping as fast as they can.

有些人声称石油生产商实际上在囤积地下的石油。但这里也没有什么迹象可以证明这个，不管是生产公司还是国家：所有大出口商，沙特阿拉伯除外，都在以最快速度开采石油。

It takes two to contango
要两者才能使石油远期升水

Despite their dismal reputation, the oil speculators provide a vital service. They help airlines and other big oil consumers to hedge against rising prices, and so to reduce risk-a massive boon amid the economic turmoil. By the same token, they provide oil producers with more predictable future revenues, and so allow them to expand more confidently and borrow more cheaply. That, in turn, should help to lower the price of oil in the long run. Any attempt to curtail speculation, by contrast, is likely to make life harder for firms and oil more expensive.

尽管口碑差劲，石油投机商却起到了很大的作用。他们帮助航空公司和其他大的耗油的公司对冲上涨的油价，这也消减了风险——这在现今的经济混乱中可谓是雪中送炭。相应地，他们为石油生产商提供了更可预计到的收入，也使得他们可以更加自信地扩张，借更划算的钱。这反过来也会帮助长远地降低油价。任何想削减投机的措施，相比之下，似乎只会使得这些公司的生活更艰难，油价更高。

译者：死海之果    http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=12469&extra=page%3D1&page=1