[2008.07.05] 美国总统大选：回归中间路线

The presidential campaign
总统大选

Return to centre
回归中间

Jul 3rd 2008
From The Economist print edition

John McCain is veering off to the right-and making things too easy for Barack Obama
约翰麦凯恩正转向右翼——这让巴拉克奥巴马太过轻松。

WHEN more than 80% of Americans tell pollsters that they think the country is on the wrong track, and when only 28% of them believe that the president is doing a good job, you don’t need a Karl Rove or a Dick Morris to tell you that the road to the White House involves steering well clear of the incumbent’s policies. So why is John McCain not doing it?
当民调显示80%的美国人认为国家现在走在错误的道路上，当仅有20%的人认为总统干得不错时，不需要Karl Rove或Dick Morris这样的政治专家来告诉你，想要入主白宫应该避开现任总统的政策。那么，约翰麦凯恩为何不这样做？

The Republican candidate has always been close to George Bush when it comes to defending two fundamental, if unpopular, points of principle-the Iraq war and free trade. But in recent months Mr McCain has slid to the right on a series of other issues, including tax cuts, offshore drilling, immigration and even torture. This manoeuvring seems insincere and short-sighted.
当谈及伊战和自由贸易这两个原则性问题时，这位共和党总统候选人的观点和乔治布什的态度相近。但最近几个月麦凯恩先生在其他一系列议题上已经逐渐偏右，包括减税，离岸石油钻探，移民甚至虐囚事件。这一举措似乎缺乏诚意而且目光短浅。

Sincerity is important with Mr McCain. He has been at his most attractive, especially to independents such as this newspaper, when he stands up for issues that he believes in. On the Iraq war, his position has been almost Churchillian: victory at all costs, victory in spite of all terror. Declaring that he would rather lose an election than a war is paradoxically one of the Republican candidate’s most valuable electoral assets. It makes him sound like a commander-in-chief.
诚意对麦凯恩先生非常重要。他的吸引力已至顶峰，尤其是对本报这样的独立派而言，只要他能够坚持己见。在伊拉克战争上，他的立场几乎和丘吉尔一样：为胜利不惜任何代价，为胜利不畏任何恐惧。他公开宣称宁愿在选举中失败，也不愿意战败。多少有些矛盾，这是麦凯恩在此次选战中几个最有价值的筹码之一。这一态度令他听着像个三军统帅。

The same goes for Mr McCain’s support for free-trade agreements. Only a third of the country thinks these are good for America, the lowest figure, alas, in the developed world. But Mr McCain’s position has been clear, consistent and right. As with Iraq, it is his opponent, Barack Obama, who is having to track towards the centre, trying to renounce some of the crowd-pleasing claptrap he uttered in the primaries.
麦凯恩先生对自由贸易协定的支持也是如此。只有三分之一的国民认为这是对美国有利，唉，居然是发达国家中最低的支持率。但麦凯恩先生的立场清晰、一贯并且正确。而他的对手巴拉克奥巴马在这两个问题上如今不得不逐渐偏向中立，设法放弃一些他在初选中为讨好群众而做出的承诺。

That this newspaper admires Mr McCain for taking positions it agrees with may seem hardly surprising. Yet he still maintains some of his allure when he takes the wrong course, but does so plainly out of principle. His support for the embargo on Cuba and his opposition to gun control at home may be wrong-headed, but they are genuine. His League of Democracies and his overheated rhetoric about Iran are misguided, but they are consistent with his political history. In a world short of conviction politicians, Mr McCain’s Straight Talk Express has its charms.
本报对麦凯恩先生能坚持己见非常欣赏，这或许不让人感到意外。尽管他走错了方向，但仍保留了一些吸引人之处，不过已经明显背离原则了。他支持对古巴实行禁运，反对家庭枪支管制，这也许有些执迷不悟，但至少出自一片真心。他鼓吹民主国家联盟，过分夸大伊朗的威胁的做法是错误的，但这些都与他的以往的风格一致。在一个缺乏鲜明立场政客的世界，麦凯恩先生坦率直言有着独特的魅力。

But not when the straight talker starts saying things it is very hard to imagine that he remotely believes in. It was a bad omen last year when this freewheeling western conservative in the Reagan mould went off to court the intolerant Christian right. And recently, the flip-flops have come rapidly. Once a vigorous opponent of Mr Bush’s tax cuts, he says he wants not only to continue but also to extend them. Once a champion of greenery, he has called not only for an expensive petrol-tax holiday (something Mr Obama cleverly resisted) but also for a resumption of drilling off America’s coast. Once a supporter of closing down Guantánamo Bay, he recently criticised the Supreme Court for daring to suggest that inmates deserve the right of habeas corpus. He has edged to the right on two other areas where he used to be hated by his party’s conservatives as a dangerous maverick: on torture (he won’t rule out water-boarding) and immigration reform (he says fix the border first, which will take an eternity).
但当这位直言者开始说一些很难相信是他以前会赞同的事情时，就完全变味了。当去年这位来自西部如里根总统一样随心所欲的保守派跑去刻意讨好他本不能容忍的基督教右派时，这种糟糕的征兆就有了苗头。最近，这种反复无常来的很快。他曾经强烈反对布什先生的减税政策，现在说不但要延续还得扩大。他曾经最热心环保，现在不但呼吁推行代价高昂燃油税减免期（奥巴马先生聪明的表示反对），而且要求解除美国海岸石油钻探禁令。他曾经支持关闭关塔那摩监狱，但最近又抨击最高法院提出维护犯人人身保护权的建议。他在刑讯和移民改革两个议题上也逐渐偏右，为此他曾饱受共和党的保守派的诟病，被看做危险的异类。可如今他宣称不会反对水刑，还说首先要确定清楚国境线，这可是永远做不完的事情。

Don’t be spooked, John
约翰，不要环顾左右

It is true that America still has more conservatives than liberals. But the Republican Party has known for a long time that Mr McCain is not precisely one of them-and they still chose him anyway. Conservatives were smart enough to see that his appeal to independents and floating voters, who make up a larger proportion of the electorate than either of the two main parties, is their only hope of retaining the White House.
没错，美国的保守派依然比自由派多。但共和党人很久就知道麦凯恩先生并不是他们的死忠。尽管如此，他们还是选择了他。保守派不会没看到他正在讨好无党派者和立场不定的选民，这两类人总数占全体选民比例比两党单独的份额都大，他们也是共和党保住白宫唯一的希望。

American elections classically involve a two-step: the candidate runs to the extreme in the primary, then back to the centre for the general. Mr Obama is doing that. Mr McCain seems to be doing precisely the opposite. It is a mistake.
美国总统大选一般包括两个阶段：参选人在初选时走极端路线，到了全国普选就回归中间。奥巴马先生正在这样做，而麦凯恩先生似乎正好相反。这是错误的。

译者：xcz2    http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=12561&pid=78702&page=1&extra=page%3D1#pid78702