[2008.06.21] A funny way to beat inflation 打败通胀的搞笑办法

Venezuela’s economy
委内瑞拉经济

A funny way to beat inflation
打败通胀的搞笑办法

Jun 19th 2008 | CARACAS
From The Economist print edition

Hugo Chávez invites the private sector to help him build socialism
雨果•查韦斯邀请私营企业帮自己建设社会主义

TO BUILD his promised socialist revolution, Hugo Chávez seems to have concluded that he needs the help of capitalist businessmen. Earlier this month he invited a handpicked group of captains of finance and industry to the presidential palace. He lectured them about the imminent demise of capitalism, but then proceeded to offer them cheap credit and joint ventures to “reactivate” production.

为了发动他所承诺的社会主义革命，雨果•查韦斯看来认为自己需要资本主义商人们的帮助。本月初他邀请一群挑选出来的金融和工业巨头到他的总统官邸。他向他们谆谆告诫资本主义就要灭亡的必然命运，之后就向他们提供廉价贷款和风险投资以”恢复”生产。

That such efforts are needed is at first sight odd. Although it sells at a discount because much of it is heavy and sulphurous, the price of a barrel of Venezuelan oil recently topped $120. This year, Mr Chávez says, oil will contribute $75 billion to government revenues, up from $43.5 billion last year and only around $7 billion when he came to power in 1999.

这种举动的必要性初看有点古怪。尽管由于粘稠多硫而折价出售，委内瑞拉的石油价格最近还是达到了每桶120美元。查韦斯先生说，今年的石油将为政府收入添加750亿美元，去年这一数字是435亿美元，而1999年他上台的时候则仅有大约70亿美元。

Nevertheless, the economy slowed sharply in the first quarter of this year (see chart). That came as a surprise to the planning ministry, which had forecast growth of 6.7%. To make matters worse, the government’s inflation forecast of 12% for this year has proved even more wildly optimistic. This is particularly bad news for the poor, Mr Chávez’s main constituency. The price of food is rising faster than the overall index. According to the Centre for Documentation and Analysis (CENDA), a group linked to the trade unions, the cost of feeding a family of five rose by 2.4% in May and stands some 60% higher than the minimum wage, even though this was recently increased. For the first time in the past three years, the living standards of ordinary Venezuelans are declining.

尽管如此，该国今年第一季度的经济增长速度大幅放缓（见图表）。该国计划部曾预测增长速度为6.7％，因此这一结果使之大吃一惊。更糟的是，政府预测今年的通货膨胀为12％，这已被证明是过分乐观了。对于穷人们来说这尤其是个坏消息，他们是查韦斯先生的主要支持者。食品价格正在以比总体指数更快的速度上涨。根据文档和分析中心（CENDA）（一个与工会有关系的组织）的说法，五月份养活一个五口之家的费用上涨了2.4％，比最低工资–尽管最近有所提高 –高出60％。过去三年来第一次，委内瑞拉普通民众的生活水平开始下降。

After losing a referendum on constitutional change last December-Mr Chávez’s first electoral defeat-the government has made efforts to tackle the sources of popular discontent, including food shortages. It has used its oil wealth to import more food. But as fast as one gap is plugged another appears. CENDA reports that staples such as black beans, rice, maize flour and meat were missing from the shelves of many shops in May. Butchers have staged protests, complaining that price controls oblige them to sell some cuts below cost. The government’s consumer watchdog accuses them of hoarding and speculation, complaining that they are selling under the counter to restaurants at a higher price.

去年12月份输掉一场关于宪法修改的全民公决之后–这是查韦斯先生的首次选举失败–政府开始努力解决民众不满的根源，包括食品短缺。政府已经利用其石油财富来进口更多食品。但是一个壕沟刚填满，另一个又出现了。CENDA报告说五月份许多商店的货架上已看不到像黑豆、大米、玉米粉和肉之类的日用品了。屠夫们开始抗议，抱怨价格控制迫使其低于成本价销售肉类。而政府的消费者监督机构则指责他们囤积居奇，抱怨说他们正在暗地里以更高价格向饭店销售。

Officials rightly point out that the shortages arise partly because Venezuelans are consuming more. But they also reflect big economic imbalances. The government has channelled much of its oil wealth into handouts and subsidies, while its socialist policies have provided little incentive to increase production. Private investment has all but dried up. Businessmen have been scared by Mr Chávez’s recent nationalisations of the cement and iron and steel industries, and some dairy companies. Most industries are producing “at the limit” of their capacity, admits Andrés Izarra, the information minister.

官方立即指出食品短缺出现的原因部分是由于为委内瑞拉人现在消费得更多。但这也反应出了大的经济失衡。政府已经将其大量石油收入用于救济品和补贴中，可是其社会主义政策无法提供刺激来促进生产。私人投资几乎快干涸了。商人们被查韦斯先生最近对水泥和钢铁行业以及一些奶制品公司的国有化吓到了。新闻部部长 Andrés Izarra承认：绝大多数行业正在”以其最大生产能力”进行生产。

The president has tacitly recognised the problem. As the inflation rate climbed above 3% a month late last year, he silently applied the brakes: the government raised interest rates and slowed the rate of increase in public spending. It also managed to narrow the gap between the official exchange rate and the price of the dollar in the free market. It did so partly by stepping up the sale of bonds, which can be legally traded for dollars, but it helped that political tension subsided somewhat after the referendum.

总统沉默地确认了这一问题。随着去年年末一个月中通货膨胀率爬升超过3％，他默默踩下了刹车：政府提高利率，并降低政府开支的增长速度。它也设法缩小官方汇率与自由市场的美元价格之间的差距。通过增加国债销售–它能被合法地交易为美元–部分地达到了这一目的，但它有助于缓解全民公决之后那种紧张的政治形势。

The government’s new-found appetite for austerity has strict limits. In November Mr Chávez faces regional elections which many Venezuelans will see as an unofficial referendum on his rule. He has made it clear that he will not cut social spending. There is little sign that the private sector will respond to Mr Chávez’s appeals to help to build socialism. All this suggests that the battle against inflation will be hard. To wage it, the president this week named as his finance minister Alí Rodríguez, a veteran official who has close ties to Cuba, Venezuela’s closest ally. Perhaps he has noticed that Cuba’s communist government has recently concluded that private farming, rather than socialism, is the best way to feed the people.

政府最近获得的这种对节约开支的渴望有着严格限制。11月份查韦斯先生面临地区选举，许多委内瑞拉人将这看作对其统治的一次非官方全民公决。他已经清楚表明不会削减社会公共支出。没有迹象表明私营企业会响应查韦斯先生的号召去帮助其建设社会主义。所有这一切显示：对抗通货膨胀的战役将会很艰难。为了发动这场战争，本周总统任命Alí Rodríguez，一位与委内瑞拉的最亲密的同盟古巴联系密切的资深官员，为他的财政部长。可能他已经注意到古巴共产党政府最近得出的结论：私营农业，而非社会主义，才是养活人们的最佳方式。

译者：7colorwolf     http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=12281&extra=page%3D1