[2008.06.14] An embarrassment of riches 中国的财富困局

An embarrassment of riches
财富困局

Jun 10th 2008
From the Economist Intelligence Unit ViewsWire

China’s foreign reserves are growing at a staggering rate
中国外汇储备增速惊人

Despite China’s efforts to bring down its huge foreign-exchange reserves, they have hit another record high of US$1.76trn at the end of April. News reports say China is now accumulating reserves at a rate of US$100m per hour. Such a fast build-up raises a host of questions. What should or can China do about the skyrocketing reserves? Will policymakers again be forced to carry out a one-off revaluation of the renminbi? Are excessively large reserves stoking domestic inflation?
尽管中国致力降低巨额外汇储备，4月底还是再破纪录达到新高：17600亿美元。据报道，现在中国的外汇积累速度是每小时1亿美元。如此快的增长是个大问题。面对如此飞速增长，中国政府应该做什么，又能做什么呢？决策者将再次被迫一步到位升值人民币吗？大量外汇储备是否加速国内通胀呢？

Before tackling these questions, China’s foreign reserves must first be put into perspective. First, the reserves would have been even larger had the government not spent a portion of them to recapitalise state-owned banks before their overseas listings and to create the China Investment Corp (CIC), the country’s US$200bn sovereign wealth fund. Second, at present levels the reserves can pay for about a year and half’s worth of China’s imports. In general, economists recommend a country to maintain enough reserves to pay for only 3-6 months of imported goods and services. Third, China’s foreign debts-US$347bn as of the end of 2007-are less than 20% of its reserves. The country’s foreign reserves, by any measure, are needlessly large.
解析这些问题之前，必须先透视中国外汇储备的过去。第一，如果政府在国有银行赴国外上市时花费一些为其重组，而不是创建中国2000亿美元的财富主权基金–中国投资公司（CIC）,这笔储备会更大额。第二按目前水平该储备额足以支付一年半的国内进口总值。通常，经济学家建议一国的储备维持在足以支付3-6个月的进口商品和服务的水平即可。第三，中国的外债–07年底时为3470亿美元–不到他的储备的20%。用哪个指标来衡量，这个国家的外汇储备都完全没必要这么大。

Ineffective strategies
无效策略

It is also clear that China’s existing strategies to slow reserves accumulation have been ineffective. Cuts in export subsidies have not conspicuously shrunk China’s massive trade surplus or export earnings so far. The appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar in the past three years has not made much of a dent either. For the past couple of years the Chinese government has also been actively encouraging domestic firms and citizens to go abroad to acquire foreign assets or to travel and study, but the reserves’ upwards march has continued.
中国现行策略很清晰：减缓储备积累速度，但是并不奏效。削减出口补贴远远没有达到明显降低中国大额外贸顺差，或明显减少出口收益的效果。过去三年人民币兑美元的升值幅度也同样不够明显。过去两年，中国政府也积极鼓励国内企业投资海外资产，个人出国旅行学习，但是外汇储备增长依旧。

In the absence of more drastic actions, it seems certain China’s foreign reserves will top US$2trn within this year. The trade surplus is likely to persist, and reserve assets, after all, are generating interest incomes. The key concern for Chinese policymakers is the impact of foreign-currency inflows on domestic inflation. So far, the People’s Bank of China (PBC, the central bank) has succeeded in largely sterilising increases in reserves and in maintaining relatively strict capital controls. However, as money keeps gushing into the country, these efforts are becoming more challenging. To contain excessive money supply, the PBC has also hiked banks’ reserve-requirement ratio 16 times over the past two years. But in the end there is a limit to how much the PBC can curb bank lending or prevent some of the reserves from seeping into the domestic economy.
如不出台严厉措施，中国外汇储备在年内会毫无悬念的达到20000亿美元。外贸很可能持续顺差，毕竟，储备资产可以获得利息收入。中国政府最担心的问题是外资涌入对国内通胀的影响。截至目前，中国人民银行（PEC中国央行）已经成功地毫无悬念的大幅增加储备和维持相对严厉的资本控制。然而，随着资金潮水般涌入，人民银行的举措变得更富挑战性。为了维持资金供给人民银行两年来16次提高商业银行的存款准备金率。央行一直致力于控制银行贷款和外汇储备渗透至国内经济,但是随着事态的发展,央行的能力终将有限.

The early travails of the CIC are further evidence of the difficulty of managing such large foreign reserves. The need to diversify their holdings away from US Treasuries and other Western governments’ debt was the key motive for forming China’s first sovereign wealth fund. But the CIC’s headline-grabbing but so far loss-making investments in the Blackstone Group, a US private-equity fund, and Morgan Stanley, a US investment bank, have drawn a flood of criticism in China. While the CIC’s timing of these two transactions may have been plain bad luck, few Chinese have faith in its ability to generate a decent rate of return consistently. (It has not escaped people’s notice that most key positions at the CIC are filled by political appointees, not investment professionals.)
中投公司早期的举步维艰说明管理如此巨大的外汇储备绝非易事.设立第一个中国财富主权基金的主要动机是多样化原本投资于美国国债和其他西方国家政府债券的外汇储备。但中投投资于黑石基金（一个美国私募股权基金）以及投资于摩根斯坦利（一家美国投行）的大动作至今还是两笔亏损买卖，因此，招致国内洪水般的批评。也许进行这两笔交易时”恰巧”运气不好，没中国人指望中投有本事获得体面丰厚的回报。（群众的眼睛是雪亮的：中投的重要岗位都由有政治背景的人把持，而不是投资专家）

China seems to have only two options if it seriously wants to reduce the level of foreign reserves. It can either accelerate the renminbi’s appreciation or relax capital controls more. The latter action is unlikely this year. The plunge in China’s stockmarket has made any policy that would encourage capital outflows politically untenable. China may adopt a much stronger renminbi policy. Some policymakers, though, apparently also want to reintroduce export subsidies for sectors most hurt by the currency appreciation that has already taken place. For example, to redress widespread textile-job losses, the government may allow a 2% increase in export-tax rebates for the industry. But then, it makes little sense to accelerate currency appreciation while giving exporters a helping hand. The reality is that China has run out of politically feasible means to bring down its reserves.
要真想降低外汇储备水平，中国似乎只有两个选择，但都会加速人民币升值或者进一步放松资本控制。后一举措不太可能年内推出。中国股票市场的暴跌使任何鼓励资本流出的措施不具政治上的可行性。中国也许会采取更强势的人民币政策。一些决策层近期还想再推荐对那些本币升值最受损害，并已经蒙受损失的行业给予出口补贴。比如，为了补偿纺织行业大范围的失业，政府给与该行业2%的出口退税。但是帮助出口企业同时又加大本币升值力度没什么道理。事实上，中国用来降低外汇储备的政策已经山穷水尽。

Consequently, China will face higher inflation. Indeed, as the speed of reserves accumulation shows no sign of slowing, the Chinese government may be tempted to mobilise some of the money for social purposes. For instance, it may give more subsidies to the poor to counter the inevitable (upwards) adjustment in state-regulated petrol and electricity prices. If so, the government must be extra careful as to not throw all fiscal prudence out the window. Otherwise, its tolerance level for inflation will be even more sorely tested in the coming months.
结果，中国必须面对更高的通胀。实际上储备积累速度没有减缓迹象，中国政府也许要试着花些钱在民生方面。比如给穷人更多的补贴，他们难免要面对调高的国有石油和电力价格。如果这样，政府必须格外小心，别把可能回避风险的财政政策都置于脑后。否则，通胀容忍度的痛苦测试数月即至。

译者：红豆抹茶   http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=12015&extra=page%3D1