[2008.06.14] Iraq starts to fix itself 伊拉克走出泥潭

Iraq
伊拉克

Iraq starts to fix itself
伊拉克走出泥潭

Jun 12th 2008
From The Economist print edition
2008年6月12日
《经济学人》印刷版

Its people are still suffering monstrously, but Iraq is doing far better than it was only a few months ago
虽然人民仍然生活在水深火热当中，但伊拉克的表现比几个月前强多了

AFTER all the blood and blunders, people are right to be sceptical when good news is announced from Iraq. Yet it is now plain that over the past several months, while Americans have been distracted by their presidential primaries, many things in Iraq have at long last started to go right.
在经历了之前所有的流血与失误之后，人们有理由对从伊拉克传来的好消息感到怀疑。但现在可以明显看出，过去的几个月，在一个美国人的注意力被他们的总统初选分散了不少的时候，伊拉克的许多方面终于有了起色。

This improvement goes beyond the fall in killing that followed General David Petraeus’s “surge”. Iraq’s government has gained in stature and confidence. Thanks to soaring oil prices it is flush with money. It is standing up to Iraq’s assorted militias and asserting its independence from both America and Iran. The overlapping wars-Sunni against American, Sunni against Shia and Shia against Shia-that harrowed Iraq after the invasion of 2003 have abated. The country no longer looks in imminent danger of flying apart or falling into everlasting anarchy. In September 2007 this newspaper supported the surge not because we had faith in Iraq but only in the desperate hope that the surge might stop what was already a bloodbath from becoming even worse (see article). The situation now is different: Iraq is still a mess, but something approaching a normal future for its people is beginning to look achievable.
这种进展不仅仅体现在自从彼德雷乌斯将军实施”速增计划”之后，流血事件减少了。伊拉克政府已经拾起了地位与信心。由于油价飞涨，它现在富得流油。伊政府不仅开始对抗国内形形色色的地方武装，而且在面对美国和伊朗的时候，它也开始加强其独立性。自从2003年美国入侵以来，一直困扰伊拉克的彼此交错的战争—— 逊尼派对抗美国，逊尼派对抗什叶派，什叶派内讧等等——现在都已经开始冷却。这个国家不再面临陷入分裂或者永久无政府状态的危险。在2007年9月《经济学人》之所以支持”速增计划”，并不是因为我们对伊拉克局势有着坚定的信心，而是因为我们残存着一线希望：”速增”也许能够防止已有的大屠杀更加恶化。当然现在的情况与当时大不相同了：伊拉克仍然一团糟，但一些能够使伊拉克人民将来过上正常生活的因素，现在看起来有实现的可能了。

The guns begin to fall silent
枪支开始沉默

As General Petraeus himself admits, and our briefing this week argues, the change is fragile, and reversible (see article). But it is real. Only a few months ago, Iraq was in the grip not only of a fierce anti-American insurgency but also of a dense tangle of sectarian wars, which America seemed powerless to stop. Those who thought it was just making matters worse by staying on could point to the bloody facts on the ground as evidence. But now it is time to look again. Each of those overlapping conflicts has lately begun to peter out.
虽然彼德雷乌斯将军承认，我们本周的简报也同样认为，这种改变是脆弱并且可逆的。但它的确是真实的。仅仅在几个月以前，伊拉克还充斥着激烈的反美暴行和看起来美国也无能为力的错综复杂的教派战争。认为继续驻军只会进一步恶化局势的人们，把这些血淋淋的事实当作他们支持撤军的证据。但现在是再一次审视局势的时候了，种种复杂的冲突现在都开始烟消云散。

A few Sunnis, motivated by Islam or simple resentment of foreign military occupation, continue to attack American forces. But many Sunni tribes, repelled by the atrocities committed by their former and often foreign allies in al-Qaeda, have joined the so-called Sunni awakening, the Sahwa, and crossed over to America’s side. At the same time, Sunnis and Shias have stopped killing each other in the vast numbers that followed the blowing up of a Shia shrine in early 2006. General Petraeus’s surge is only one reason for this. Another reason, less flattering to the Americans, is that after last year’s frenzied ethnic cleansing fewer neighbourhoods are still mixed. But it is also the case that a lot of Iraqis, having waded briefly into the horror of indiscriminate sectarian slaughter, have for the present made a conscious decision to step back.
虽然受到伊斯兰教义的鼓动，或者仅仅是因为对外界的军事占领心怀不满，一些逊尼派教徒仍然在攻击美国军队。但许多逊尼部落，厌恶了他们前人和基地组织中的国外盟友所犯下的种种暴行，加入了所谓的”逊尼觉醒”，站到美国一边。同时，逊尼派和什叶派也停止了自2006年什叶派圣地发生爆炸以来彼此之间的大规模屠杀。当然，彼德雷乌斯将军的”速增”计划只是使得局势好转的原因之一。另一方面是因为——美国人脸上就不那么有光了——去年狂热的民族清洗之后，教派杂居的地区更少了。这一情况使得许多伊拉克人一度强烈抨击随意的教派屠杀，并在当下做出了抽身而退的明智决定。

The conflict between Shias and Shias has died down too. In the past few weeks Iraq’s prime minister, Nuri al-Maliki, has belied a reputation for weakness by sending the army to take control of the port city of Basra and the Baghdad slum known as Sadr City, both strongholds until then of the powerful militia run by Muqtada al-Sadr, a vehemently anti-American Shia cleric. The fact that Mr Sadr considered it wise not to resist suggests not only that the army is now strong enough to out-face private militias but also that the state has acquired far greater political legitimacy, in Shia minds at least.
什叶派内部的争端也已经开始消泯。在过去的几周里，伊拉克总理马利基派出军队，控制了港口城市别士拉和被称做Sadr城的巴格达贫困区，摘掉了扣在自己头上的软弱的帽子。这两地此前一直由激烈的反美人士、什叶派宗教领袖Sadr领导的强大的地方武装所控制。 Sadr最终选择让步说明，政府军队已经强大到足以对抗私人武装，而且更说明，至少在什叶派的眼中，政府已经获得了更大的合法性。

Needless to say, these conflicts could resume. The Sunnis fighting on America’s side today could direct their fire back towards the Americans and Shias tomorrow if not enough room is made for them in the new, Shia-dominated order. On the Shia side, it is not clear whether Mr Sadr has given up violence for good. And his is not the only political movement to have a private army. Sunnis, Shias and Kurds alike still see their respective militias as a hedge against an uncertain future.
毫无疑问，这些冲突有可能死灰复燃。如果在新的，由什叶派主导的新秩序当中得不到足够的生存空间，今天站在美国一边的逊尼派，极有可能在明天就调转枪头攻击美国人和什叶派。而在什叶派一方，还不清楚Sadr是否是出于善意而停止暴力活动。整个伊拉克也不是只有他这一政治派别拥有私人军队。逊尼派，什叶派和库尔德人都把各自的武装视为对抗不确定未来的有效手段。

To that extent, Iraq is still far from normality. But if the calm survives, politics will at least have a chance. Mr Maliki’s next job is therefore to go ahead with the provincial elections due before the end of the year. A good showing by the Sunnis, too few of whom voted in 2005, could bring them back into the political mainstream, enabling them to wield serious power in their own provinces at least. The elections can also provide a useful alternative path to power for the Sadrists, if they really have given up violence and decide to take part.
考虑到这些，伊拉克还远远谈不上步入正轨。如果局势成功稳定下来，那么采用政治手段为伊拉克带来和平还有一线希望。因此，马利基的下一项任务就是为定于年前举行的省内选举作准备。2005年时逊尼派几乎没有人参加选举，但如果积极参加本次选举，他们有可能重回政治主流，至少他们会在省内拥有庞大的权力。如果地方军阀真的停止暴力活动，并决定参加到国家的建设当中来，选举同样给他们提供了另一项获得权力的方法。

George Bush meanwhile has a further part to play, which consists mainly of not doing things that might tempt him. He should not, for example, attack Iran. One of the impressive things about Iraq’s present government is its refusal to take sides between America and its next-door neighbour. It needs good relations with both if it is to prosper. Mr Bush has also to find a way to leave to his successor the business of negotiating a new agreement on the status of American forces in Iraq. This may become a toxic issue in Iraq’s elections as the existing UN mandate expires. Mr Maliki is said to want a guarantee that America will defend its borders. His opponents accuse America of seeking permanent bases in Iraq, turning it into a vassal. It would be wrong for a lame duck in Washington to tie the hands of the next administration on such matters.
乔治布什也有一些事情要做，其中最主要的就是不要干他想干的事。比方说，他不能攻击伊朗。当前伊拉克政府最让人印象深刻的方面就是它拒绝在美国与伊朗之间选择自己的立场。为了不断发展，伊拉克政府必须同双方都搞好关系。布什同样应该想方设法，使其继任者有可能就驻伊美军地位问题达成新的协议。联合国授权失效后，驻伊美军地位问题将会是伊拉克大选中的棘手议题。据说马利基希望美军做出保证，为其边境提供保护。但他的反对者指责美国正在寻求在伊拉克建立永久的军事基地，意图把伊拉克变成美国的附庸。布什这位”跛脚鸭”不能在这些问题上束缚住下届政府的手脚。

It’s really not about that any more
但这再也不是说…

In highlighting the improved conditions in Iraq we do not mean to justify The Economist’s support of the invasion of 2003 (see article). Too many lives have been shattered for that. History will still record that the invasion and occupation have been a debacle. Iraqis even now live under daily threat of violent death: hundreds are killed each month. They remain woefully short of the necessities of life, such as jobs, clean water and electricity. Iraq’s government is gaining confidence faster than competence. It is still fractious, and in many places corrupt.
尽管强调了伊拉克日益好转的局势，我们无意为《经济学人》在2003年支持伊战这一举动正名。太多的生命因为伊战而消陨。历史仍然会将对伊拉克的入侵和占领视为巨大的失败。即使到现在，伊拉克人每天都受到死亡的威胁：每月都有数百人被杀。他们仍然极其缺乏生活必需品，比如说工作，洁净的水和电力。伊拉克政府的确重拾了信心，但却没有与信心相适应的工作能力。它仍然是四分五裂的，而且在很多方面腐朽不堪。

Nor does it follow that a turn for the better necessarily validates John McCain’s insistence on America staying indefinitely. A safer Iraq might make Barack Obama’s plan to pull out most American troops within 16 months more feasible, though at the moment a precipitate withdrawal looks foolish. But to guard the fragile improvements, the key for America must be flexibility. Both candidates have to keep their options open. If America’s next president gets Iraq wrong because he has boxed himself in during the campaign, all the recent gains may be squandered and Iraq will slide swiftly back into misery and despair. That would be to fail twice over.
局势好转同样也不能证明麦凯恩无限期在伊驻军这一立场的有效性。一个更加安全的伊拉克会使得奥巴马在16个月内撤出大部分美军的计划更加可行，虽然现在看起来草率撤军看起来很愚蠢。要想维护这脆弱的进展，美国的关键一点就是一定要灵活。两位候选人都必须保持其选择的开放性。如果美国的下一任总统因为在竞选中束缚住自己，而在伊拉克问题上犯了错误，最近的所有成果都可能付之东流，伊拉克会迅速重回悲惨和绝望的深渊。再失败一次伊拉克可就真的没希望了.

译者：xsj191  http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=12089&pid=75577&page=1&extra=page%3D1#pid75577