[2009.04.30] Mountain chess 山地对弈

 

Turkey and Armenia
土耳其与亚美尼亚

Mountain chess
山地对弈

Apr 30th 2009 | ANKARA AND YEREVAN
From The Economist print edition

Recent moves towards a peace deal may come unstuck
近期向着和平协议走出的棋路可能变得杂乱不一

 

A HIGH-STAKES chess game is being played out in the south Caucasus. It involves America, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia and Turkey. Unlike chess-players, though, all the participants can win in this game, it is hoped, if they agree on a common aim: peace between Turkey and Armenia, which would help to thaw the frozen conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the (mainly Armenian) territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.

在南高加索地区，一场事关重大的棋局已经开始，对弈各方包括美国、亚美尼亚、阿塞拜疆、俄罗斯和土耳其；然而和真正的象棋比赛不一样，这盘棋的可能结果之一是所有人都赢了，只要它们能在一个共同目标上达成共识：在土耳其与亚美尼亚之间实现和平，这也将有助于缓和后者与阿塞拜疆之间围绕着纳戈尔诺-卡拉巴赫领土问题（主要由亚美尼亚人构成）的陷入僵局的冲突。

It almost seemed possible on April 23rd, when Turkey and Armenia declared that they had agreed on a “road map” to establish formal ties and reopen the border. This was sealed by Turkey in 1993 to show solidarity with Azerbaijan, which had just lost 20% of its territory, including Nagorno-Karabakh. If the border were open, Armenians could then climb their sacred Mount Ararat. Friendship with Armenia might give Turkey the muscle to push through a deal on Karabakh, as well as securing it a bigger role in the south Caucasus. And that would give Turkey’s friends a fresh reason to promote Turkish membership of the European Union.

当4月23日土耳其与亚美尼亚宣布它们已经同意了旨在建立正式关系并重新开放边境的“路线图”时，上述目标看来似乎近在咫尺。为了展示与阿塞拜疆之间的团结，土耳其在1993年封锁了与亚美尼亚之间的边境，彼时阿塞拜疆刚刚丧失了20%的领土，其中就包括纳戈尔诺-卡拉巴赫；如果边境重开，亚美尼亚人就能攀登他们的圣山——阿拉拉特山。与亚美尼亚的友好关系将使得土耳其一方面有能力推动一份关于卡拉巴赫的协议，另一方面将巩固它在南高加索地区更为重要的地位；这也将使得土耳其的友邦们获得促进土耳其加入欧盟的新理由。

The most immediate benefit, though, was meant to be dissuading Barack Obama from keeping his campaign promise to call the mass slaughter of Ottoman Armenians in 1915 “genocide”. In the statement he issued on April 24th, the day when the world’s Armenians commemorate the tragedy, the American president tried to please everybody. He plumped for “medz yeghern”, Armenian for “great catastrophe”. (Cynics noted that the Turkish- Armenian deal, though initialled a month ago, had been announced only a day earlier.) And he praised Turkey’s and Armenia’s peacemaking efforts. Hardliners in Armenia and the diaspora were furious, accusing Mr Obama of reneging on his promise. Yet in Turkey the opposition complained that he had simply swapped Armenian for English to say the same thing.

不过，它最为直接的好处在于被指望能劝阻巴拉克•奥巴马不再恪守其竞选承诺，即不再将1915年奥斯曼帝国的亚美尼亚族裔所受大规模屠杀称为“种族灭绝”。奥巴马总统在全球亚美尼亚人纪念这一悲剧的4月24日所发表的声明中试图讨好各方：他支持在亚美尼亚语中表示“巨大灾难”的措辞——“medz yeghern” （愤世嫉俗者们注意到，尽管土耳其与亚美尼亚间的协议早在一个月前就已草签，但直到纪念日的前一天才被宣布）；同时他又称赞了土耳其与亚美尼亚缔造和平的成就。对此，亚美尼亚强硬派与流亡者甚为愤慨，他们指责奥巴马食言；而土耳其的反对派则抱怨奥巴马在玩文字游戏，同样的意思，只不过用亚美尼亚语代替英语表达了出来。

A bigger obstacle to a deal may be Azerbaijan. It is threatening to turn towards Russia and to increase the price of the natural gas it sells to Turkey. This may explain why the Turkish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has reverted to the traditional line that, unless Armenia makes peace with Azerbaijan, Turkey will not make peace with Armenia—even though the text they initialled reportedly does not mention Nagorno-Karabakh at all.

达成协议的更大阻碍是阿塞拜疆：该国威胁将转投俄国阵营并提高其出售给土耳其的天然气的价格。这或许能够解释为何土耳其总理雷杰普•塔伊普•埃尔多安已经退回传统立场，即除非亚美尼亚能与阿塞拜疆建立和平，否则土亚和平难以实现；尽管据报道，两国草签的文件中根本没有提到纳戈尔诺-卡拉巴赫问题。

Some say he is posturing, to force Armenia to withdraw from some of the seven regions of Azerbaijan that it occupies outside Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan’s president, Ilham Aliev, and his Armenian counterpart, Serzh Sargsyan, are due to meet in Prague next week, before an EU eastern-partnership summit. But Mr Sargsyan, whose image was marred by a disputed presidential election in April 2008, is unlikely to bend further. One admittedly puny coalition partner has already walked out over the deal with Turkey. The financial crisis is starting to bite, too. Armenian migrant labourers are returning from Russia in droves. Oil and gas prices have shot up. The Armenian dram has lost over a third of its value against the dollar.

有些人认为埃尔多安只是在摆摆姿态，以迫使亚美尼亚从一些被其占领的、纳戈尔诺-卡拉巴赫之外的七块阿塞拜疆土地上撤出。阿塞拜疆总统伊尔哈姆•阿利耶夫与亚美尼亚总统谢尔日•萨尔基相定于下周（在一次欧盟东部伙伴峰会前夕）在布拉格举行会谈。但形象受到2008年4月有争议的总统选举影响的萨尔基相总统恐怕不会再做出更大让步。由于与土耳其签订协议一事，已有一位公认实力弱小的联盟政伴选择退出；金融危机也开始侵蚀这个国家：大批亚美尼亚在俄务工人员返回国内；石油与天然气价格暴涨；亚美尼亚德拉姆对美元的汇率已跌去三分之一强。

The real spoiler may turn out to be Russia. Armenia is the only country bordering Turkey, a NATO member, in which the Russians have troops and a base. Peace with Turkey could lead to their withdrawal, as Armenia leans westward. The trade-off, say some, could be for Russian peacekeepers to defend the corridor linking Armenia proper to Nagorno-Karabakh. But Russia is also said to be bullying Azerbaijan for more gas. If it gets it, that may kill the planned Nabucco pipeline to carry Central Asian and Azerbaijani gas to Europe via Turkey, leaving Europe more dependent on Russia for its energy.

但真正的破坏者可能还是俄罗斯。亚美尼亚是与土耳其这个北约成员接壤的唯一一个驻有俄军并建有军事基地的国家。亚美尼亚与土耳其实现和平将使得俄军失去立足之地，因为届时亚美尼亚将更亲近西方。部分人士指出，作为协议的补偿，也许会让俄国维和部队守卫唯一连接亚美尼亚与纳戈尔诺-卡拉巴赫的走廊地带。但据称俄罗斯也在强迫阿塞拜疆提供更多的天然气；一旦俄国此愿实现，则已经计划好的将把中亚与阿塞拜疆的天然气经由土耳其送抵欧洲的纳布科管道可能胎死腹中，欧洲将因为能源而变得更加依赖俄国。

译者/lilywizardry:  http://www.ecocn.org/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=19008