Managing in the downturn
低迷时期的管理
Desperately seeking a cash cure
急寻现金救助
Nov 20th 2008
From The Economist print edition
Many firms urgently need more cash to boost their liquidity and to help ward off the economic ills
许多企业迫切需要更多现金以增加其流动资金并帮助防御经济问题
AT FIRST glance Citigroup, a giant of American banking, and Wolseley, a British firm that makes building products, have little in common. The former is part of the plumbing of the global financial system; the latter is the world’s biggest distributor of pipes, bathroom fittings and other plumbing paraphernalia. Yet both have found themselves on the rapidly growing list of victims of the global economic turmoil.Citigroup has been hammered by the fallout from the subprime-mortgage debacle and its repercussions in financial markets. But as the chaos spills into the real economy, firms in many different industries are being infected by it. Hence Wolseley has seen demand for its products dry up as the number of new homes being built has plummeted.
乍看之下，美国银行业巨头花旗集团和制造建筑产品的英国企业沃尔斯利并没有共同之处。前者是全球金融系统的组成部分，后者则是全球管道、浴室配件及其他水暖器材的最大分销商。然而此时他们都发现自己已位列由于全球经济动荡而导致的日益增多的受害者中。受次级抵押贷款崩溃及其连锁反应的影响，花旗集团遭到了重创。并且随着动荡深入到实体经济，各行各业的企业都正面临着威胁。因此由于房地产开发数量一落千丈，对沃尔斯利公司产品的需求也是骤然下跌！
1.Citigroup请参考 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citigroup
2.Wolseley请参考 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolseley_plc
Now they have something else in common: this week both announced a further round of mass lay-offs. On November 17th Vikram Pandit, Citi’s boss, said his bank would shed a whopping 52,000 jobs in the next few months, bringing the total number of planned job cuts to 75,000, or 20% of the bank’s workforce (see article). On November 18th Chip Hornsby, Wolseley’s boss, announced another 2,300 job cuts at his firm. Once these employees have departed, his company will have cut 14,500 jobs, or roughly 18% of its total.
现在他们在某事上有共同之处了：本周这两家公司都宣布了新一轮的大规模裁员。11月17日，花旗的老总Vikram Pandit表示在接下来的几个月中他们将裁剪52,000个职位；这一举措将计划裁员数增加到了75,000个，相当于整个银行职工总数的20％（见文章）。11月18日，沃尔斯利的老板Chip Hornsby又宣布了另外2300个职位裁减的决定。随着这些职工的离开，公司的裁员数将达到14,500位，约占职工总数的18％。
With Messrs Pandit and Hornsby, bosses at many other firms have been cutting hundreds of thousands of jobs. Apart from carmakers and other manufacturers, the list of those laying people off now includes Pepsi bottlers, law firms, retailers, media companies, chemicals producers and even technology firms. All are desperately seeking a cure. And the most attractive medicine on offer looks like cash.
紧随Pandit先生和Hornsby先生的裁员决定，很多其他公司的老总也纷纷裁减了数以十万计的就业机会。除了汽车制造商和其他生产商，裁员公司的名单已涉及到百事可乐、律师事务所、零售商、媒体公司、化工厂甚至科技企业。他们正不顾一起地寻求救助。而现金则可能是救助他们最有效的”药品”。
Hoarding for hard times
储备现金以度难关
Preserving cash in such formidable times will present managers with an unprecedented test of their skills. “We’ve come through a half-century of history where recessions have been sort of mild,” notes Richard Sylla, a professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business. “But never have problems in the financial sector been as great as they are now.”
在如此艰难的时期进行现金储备对目前的管理人员来说无疑是对他们技能的巨大考验。纽约大学斯特恩商学院的教授Richard Sylla说：”我们已经度过了衰退相对温和的半个世纪，但是在金融领域还没有遇到如目前程度之深的经济低迷。”
Faced with huge difficulties of their own, banks have tightened their purse strings, lending less and driving up the cost of credit to consumers and corporations. That is compounding an already grim prognosis for the world economy. This week Japan said its economy had shrunk for the second quarter running. Much of Europe is in a similar state. And a new survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has shown that many economists believe the United States went into recession in April and will not emerge from it until the middle of 2009.
面对自身巨大的经济问题，银行收紧了钱袋，减少贷款并且将信贷成本转嫁给个人和企业。这更加深了对世界经济预测的严峻性。本周日本表示其经济已经连续第二个季度萎缩。大部分欧洲国家也是类似状况。由费城联邦储备银行进行的一项新调查显示，很多经济学家认为美国在四月份就已进入衰退而且直到2009年中期才能摆脱这一状态。
Opinions differ as to how long and deep the global slowdown might be. But the combination of a battered banking system and shell-shocked consumers mired in debt suggests it could be particularly hard for many businesses, whatever the duration. So bosses are rushing to secure as much cash as they can now to see their companies through the downturn.
关于全球经济发展减缓时长多久以及程度多深，意见不一。鉴于遭受重创的银行系统，以及深陷债务的消费者，无论经济减缓会持续多久，对于很多行业来说其程度仍会相当严重。所以老板们都正竭尽全力的筹措尽可能多的资金以度过这一难关。
How times change. Not long ago companies with cash piles were assailed by corporate activists to return money to shareholders. Nowadays it is only a slight exaggeration to say that the more cash that investors see in a firm’s coffers, the happier they are. A recent report from Citigroup’s investment bank shows that since the credit crisis began the returns of firms with ample liquidity have outperformed those of their cash-strapped industry peers by almost 7%. Before the crunch, cash-rich firms were generally underperforming.
今非昔比。不久之前，企业激进者还要求拥有大量现金储备的公司将资金返还给股东。如今可以稍微夸张一点地说：投资者看到公司的资产中有越多的现金，他们则越高兴。最近一份由花旗集团投资银行进行的调查显示：自信用危机以来，具备充足流动资金的企业经营回报率超过了现金拮据的同行将近7%。在危机之前，储备现金的企业大多远远落后。
There is a big risk that some behemoths will run out of money. Moody’s, a credit-rating agency, says its liquidity-stress index, which tracks the cash position of heavily indebted American firms, shows they are feeling as pinched as at any time since late 2002. Among those most at risk are some casinos and carmakers. Harrah’s Entertainment, a Las Vegas-based casino, is trying to persuade creditors to renegotiate its payment terms to avoid a default. General Motors (GM), along with Ford and Chrysler, islobbying Congress for a bail-out after burning through billions of dollars in the third quarter of the year.
一些实力雄厚的企业也面临资金山穷水尽的风险。信用评级机构Moody’s表示，他们评定的反映已负债累累的美国公司现金状况的流动资金状态指数显示：目前这些公司正处于自2002年底以来从未遭遇的艰难境地。这些企业中风险最大的公司当属某些赌场和汽车制造商。Harrah’s Entertainment，拉斯维加斯的一家赌场，为了避免违约正试图说服债权人就支付条件进行重新谈判。通用汽车(GM)，和福特汽车以及克莱斯勒汽车一起因为在本年第三季度消耗了数以十亿计的美金正在请求国会予以救助。
3.Moody’s 请参考http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moody%27s
4.Harrah’s Entertainment 请参考http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harrah%27s_Entertainment
5.General Motors 请参考http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors
6.Ford 请参考http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford
7.Chrysler 请参考http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chrysler
Few companies are in as bad shape as the three American carmakers. Yet that is no excuse for complacency. Faced with such difficult markets, firms in many industries are likely to see sales fall, bad debts soar and cash flows deteriorate sharply-if they have not done so already. Although every company’s situation is unique, there are some common themes that managers would do well to bear in mind when tackling the current crisis.
和美国这三大汽车制造商一样身陷绝境的公司为数不多。然而其他公司并没有任何理由可以自满。面临如此不景气的市场，各行各业的许多企业都可能面临销售下滑、坏账上升以及现金流急剧恶化–如果之前他们从未遭受这些的话。虽然各个公司的情况都不一样，但是如果管理人员注意到这些问题中相通之处的话，他们将在解决目前危机的时候将事半功倍（胸有成竹）。
Don’t bet on the bank
别寄希望于银行
One thing not to take for granted, even for firms with strong balance-sheets, is that they will get access to external capital. For the foreseeable future, bank credit is likely to be harder to come by and will certainly be more expensive than when the financial crisis began. Strong companies may be able to issue corporate debt at a more reasonable price, but that market remains fragile. Although government action has unblocked the commercial-paper market, an important source of short-term funding, the cost of tapping it remains very high for all but the healthiest of issuers.
甚至对资产雄厚的企业来说，获得外部资本也不是件唾手可得的事了。在可预见的将来，企业将比金融危机刚开始时更难获得银行信贷而且代价会更大。实力丰厚的公司可能会以更合理的价格发行公司债券，但债券市场依然脆弱。尽管政府已采取行动为商业票据市场清除了障碍，但开发短期资金重要来源的成本对于除最具实力的发行者以外的其他人而言依然居高不下。
Faced with all this, some companies such as Marriott International, an American hotel group, have drawn down bank credit lines, even though they did not need the money urgently. Many of these so-called “revolving credit facilities” were set up during the boom, when credit was cheap. A recent paper by two Harvard Business School economists, David Scharfstein and Victoria Ivashina, shows that between April 2006 and April 2008, such credit lines grew by 36%, to $3.5 trillion.
面对这一切，一些公司例如万豪国际集团，一家美国酒店集团，制定了新的银行信贷额度，即使他们并不急需资金。许多这些所谓的”循环融资贷款”都是在信贷廉价时被采用的。最近由哈佛商学院的两位经济学家David Scharfstein和Victoria Ivashina发表的论文显示：从2006年四月到2008年四月，信贷额度增长了36％，已上升到3.5万亿。
8.Marriott International 请参考http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marriott_International
However, some analysts argue that tapping relatively cheap bank credit is not wise unless firms really need the money. They argue that rating agencies and investors are likely to see this as a black mark against managers who have increased leverage for no good reason. But in such uncertain times, that may be a small price to pay for securing a cushion of cash.
然而，一些分析人士认为，除非企业急需资金，否则利用相对廉价的银行信贷是不明智的。他们认为如果管理人员没有合理的理由利用信贷增资，评级机构和投资者们很有可能视之为一大污点。但是在眼下生死难卜之际，这可能是确保资金缓冲的最小代价。
A few companies have tapped new pools of capital, like sovereign-wealth funds, to bolster their finances. In July GE, an American conglomerate, set up an $8 billion, 50-50 joint venture with Mubadala, an investment arm of Abu Dhabi, to invest in areas such as clean energy and aviation. Mubadala is expected to become one of GE’s ten largest shareholders.
有些公司已经利用新的资本形式，例如主权财富基金以增强财务状况。今年七月，美国的一大财团通用电气与阿布扎比的投资集团Mubadala，以1：1出资方式集资80亿美金，创建了一家投资领域涉及新能源以及航空技术的新合资公司。Mubadala有望成为通用电气的十大股东之一。
9.sovereign-wealth funds 请参考http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereign-wealth_funds
10.GE 请参考http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GE
11.Mubadala 请参考http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mubadala
A third way to raise cash is to sell businesses no longer central to a firm’s strategy. Although prices for corporate assets have been depressed by the downturn, this has not deterred some companies from putting them up for auction. This week, for instance, GM and Ford sold shares in Suzuki and Mazda respectively. By selling their stakes back to the Japanese firms, the American carmakers raised a total of $770m of badly needed liquidity.
筹集现金的第三种方式是出售对公司战略而言不再是核心的业务。尽管经济低迷导致公司资产价格大不如前，但这并不能阻止某些企业走向拍卖的脚步。例如在本周，通用和福特分别抛售了各自在Suzuki和Mazda的股份。通过向日本企业回售股份，这两大美国汽车制造商筹集了总计七亿七千万美金的资本。这可以大大缓解他们的燃眉之急。
12.Suzuki 请参考http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suzuki
13.Mazda 请参考http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mazda
Managers can also boost liquidity by letting less cash go out of the door. Several big companies including Alcoa, an American aluminium giant, Target, an American discount retailer, and AkzoNobel, a Dutch firm that makes paint and specialty chemicals, have recently cancelled plans to buy back shares using what was previously viewed as excess cash. Companies are starting to trim dividends too, though this will be unpopular with investors expecting a regular stream of income.
管理人员也可以通过节俭现金开支增加流动资金。包括美国铝业巨头Aloca和折扣零售商Target，以及一家生产油漆和特种化学品的荷兰企业 AkzoNobel在内的几家大型公司，最近纷纷取消了原来准备用额外资金回购股票的计划。很多公司也已经开始削减股息，虽然这会受到期望定期稳定回报的投资者们的阻挠。
14.Aloca 请参考 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aluminum_Company_of_America
15.Target 请参考 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Target_Corporation
16.AkzoNobel 请参考 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AkzoNobel
Stretching out the payments on bank debt can also preserve cash. And firms should look out for opportunities to refinance existing loans early to give themselves greater financial flexibility. Sprint Nextel, a troubled American telecoms company, recently replaced a $6 billion revolving credit facility with a $4.5 billion loan agreement due in 2010. The terms allow Sprint to have a higher ratio of debt relative to its profits, making it less likely that it will breach covenants associated with its debt. That gives Sprint, which has been losing subscribers, a slightly better chance of surviving the downturn.
拓展银行债务支付业务同样也可以储备现金。而且企业应寻找机会尽早地为现有贷款进行融资以增加资金灵活性。身陷困境的美国电信公司Sprint Nextel，最近用拟于2010年到期的45亿美元的贷款协议取代了原先60亿美元的循环融资贷款。这一改变使得Sprint公司将维持较高的债务利润比，因此也使得它不太可能违反关联债务合约。并且这也可使正遭受客户流失的Sprint公司在当前低迷时期获得一线生存之机。
17.Sprint Nextel 请参考 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sprint_Nextel
A particularly tough challenge is to generate even more cash from existing operations. The Hackett Group, a consulting firm that specialises in this area, reckons that a typical multinational with revenues of about $23 billion can save up to $400m a year by taking a hard look at how it runs areas such as finance, human resources and technology. For example, in a recent study the consultants point out that many first-generation outsourcing efforts have shifted only parts of a process offshore. Firms should review these to see if they can “lift and shift” the whole to cheaper places.
更艰难的挑战当属从现有的业务中获得更多的现金。Hackett集团，一个专门研究这一领域的咨询公司， 以一个年收入可达230亿美元的跨国集团为典型，估计通过认真研究例如财务、人力资源以及技术方面等如何更好的运行，该跨国集团可以节约4亿美金。例如在最近的一份调查中顾问们强调：许多早期将业务外包的公司仅仅只是转移了整个进程的一部分。企业应当回顾并研究他们能否将整个进程转移到更便宜的地方。
The daily grind
日复一日的磨砺
Another area that needs to be put under the microscope is working capital, or the cash that gets tied up in day-to-day operations. “The first place to look for this money is in a firm’s inventory,” says Wayne Mincey, Hackett’s chief operating officer. All too often, poor sales forecasting and production planning mean that a lot of cash ends up trapped in a company’s warehouses in the form of unwanted products. Hackett reckons that the same $23 billion company could save as much as $1 billion a year by improving the lines of communication between executives responsible for sales, procurement and production.
另一个需要重视的地方是营运资本，或者说是跟日常业务挂钩的资金。”公司库存是发掘这笔资金的首要地方，”Hackett公司的首席运营官Wayne Mincey如是说道。糟糕的销售预测和生产计划往往会使许多资金以成品形式被困在公司仓库。Hackett公司估计通过改善负责销售、采购以及生产的管理人员之间的沟通，年收入达230亿美元的公司每年同样可以节约多达一亿的资金。
At the same time, managers need to avoid swinging to the opposite extreme. Faced with a more difficult economic environment, retailers in particular have been thinning out inventories to free up cash. But if their sales forecasting is not on the button, companies risk annoying consumers who cannot get hold of their products because they are out of stock.
与此同时，管理人员需避免走向对立的极端。面对更艰难的经济环境，零售商们尤其需要对仓库进行”瘦身”以便获得流动资金。但是如果零售商们的销售预测不准确，他们则会面临惹恼消费者的风险；这些消费者会因为他们的断货而无法获得所需的商品。
In a downturn, some firms might be tempted to squeeze suppliers. But they should think twice. Many sophisticated supply chains now stretch across continents and rely on just-in-time delivery. The slightest glitch can cause chaos. To make matters worse, many suppliers have also been hit by the credit crunch and are in need of more cash themselves. According to a recent report in the Financial Times, some companies such as Daimler, a big German carmaker,are so concerned about the financial health of vital suppliers that they are bending over backwards to help.
在经济低迷时期，一些公司可能会试图向供应商施压。但他们需要三思而后行。如今许多发展良好的供应链都是横跨各大洲且依赖于准时交货。稍有问题则可能导致混乱。更糟的是，很多供应商受到信贷紧缩冲击自身也需要大量资金。根据金融时报的一份最新调查，一些企业例如德国的一大汽车制造商Daimler，非常关注重要供应商的财务状况以便在必要时寻求他们的帮助。
The problem with working-capital initiatives is they can take a long time to pay off. Yet many managers are under pressure to turn their firms’ fortunes round fast. Hence the predilection for swift and sizeable lay-offs. Announcing earlier this month that Sun Microsystems would cut 5,000-6,000 jobs, Jonathan Schwarz, its chief executive, said he was taking “decisive actions” to align the company’s business with new economic realities.
通过营运资本措施增加资金的方法需要很久才能奏效。而且很多管理人员在压力下需要加快本公司的资金周转，因此产生了迅速且大规模的裁员行动。Sun Microsystems公司首席执行官在本月初宣布了将裁减5000至6000个职位的决定，并且他表示采取此”果断行动”是为了使公司适应当前的经济现状。
18.Sun Microsystems 请参考 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sun_Microsystems
As well as pruning workforces, many manufacturing, metals and mining companies are idling some factories and mothballing others. Capital expenditure is also being axed. After its third-quarter profit fell by more than half, Alcoa cancelled all its “non-essential” capital projects. Severstal, Russia’s biggest steelmaker, has canned most of an $8 billion investment plan.
除了裁员，很多制造公司、金属公司以及矿业公司还暂时停止了一些工厂的运转并且关闭了部分工厂。基本建设费用也被削减了。由于第三季度的利润下降了一半以上，美国铝公司取消了其所有的”非重点”投资方案。俄罗斯最大的钢铁企业Severstal也冻结了高达80亿美元的投资计划的大部分。
19.Severstal 请参考 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severstal
Large companies are not the only ones with a laser-like focus on cash. Small start-ups are also watching every penny more closely than ever. Many of their fresh-faced founders can barely remember the downturn triggered by the dotcom bust in the early part of the decade. Yet at the urging of venture capitalists with somewhat longer memories and plenty of cash at risk, firms across California’s Silicon Valley and beyond have been making big cuts in their relatively small budgets. The goal is to reduce their “burn rates”, or the speed at which they are getting through their backers’ money.
并不是只有大公司才全神贯注地注视着现金。小型企业也比任何时候都密切地关注着资金的状况。这些新创始人中的大部分几乎已经记不起早期十年中由网络经济崩溃（网络泡沫破灭）导致的经济低迷了。但是在一些有长远记忆且有大量现金面临威胁的风险资本家的强烈要求下，位于加利福尼亚州硅谷及其他地区的企业已经对其相对较小的预算作了大幅削减。他们的目的是降低”烧钱速度”，或者说是减缓投资者所提供资金的消耗速度。
So is all this hyperactivity encouraging? The answer is a qualified yes. Firms that remain standing through a brutal recession will be those that have taken the phrase “cash is king” to heart. Yet there is a risk that in a rush to build up their cash mountains, cuts could be made too fast and too deep when a more targeted approach to surgery is needed. For instance, a recent article in the McKinsey Quarterly points out that technology budgets are a favourite place to make cuts, but indiscriminate chopping will be more damaging than ever before because IT systems are now so tightly interwoven with everything from supply chain management to the determination of pricing strategies.
那么这一切能振奋人心吗？答案是非常肯定的。仍然身陷经济衰退困境中的企业应该持有”现金至上”的心态。但是当需要更进一步的有目的的改革时，削减速度会太快且消减程度会更深，迅速储备大量的现金存在着一定的风险。例如，最近发表在麦肯锡季刊上的一篇文章指出公司倾向于削减技术方面的预算，但是不分青红皂白地削减带来的破坏性会比以往任何时候都要强大，因为IT系统与从供应链管理到价格战略决定的每一环节都是紧密关联的。
Another reason for caution is that firms on a cash crusade can all too easily choke off investment in promising new products. That would be a huge mistake because, paradoxically, a recession can be a fantastic time to launch innovations. For one thing, tougher times can make consumers reconsider many of their purchasing decisions, leaving them open to trying something new. For another, a less crowded
marketplace makes it easier-and cheaper-to create awareness of a new offering.
需要谨慎行事的另一原因是进行现金储备的企业很容易中断在有前景的新产品上的投资。这会是个巨大的错误，因为衰退时期是推陈出新的好时机，尽管这个观念有些自相矛盾。一方面，消费者在艰难时期会重新考虑他们的购买决策，他们可以自主地尝试新东西。另一方面，相对宽松的市场和低廉的价格使人们更容易意识到新产品的存在。
Scott Anthony of Innosight, a consulting firm, points out that during the dotcom bust Apple launched its first version of the iPod music player and that in America alone more than ten other “disruptive” innovations started during the same period. Experienced senior executives are convinced that this downturn will produce a new crop of world-beating businesses. In a recent speech to the Council on Foreign Relations, a think-tank, Sam Palmisano, the boss of IBM, said he was certain that he would see new leaders emerging who would “win not by surviving the storm, but by changing the game”.
咨询公司Scott Anthony of Innosight指出，在网络经济崩溃时期，苹果公司推出了第一个版本的iPod音乐播放器，并且同一时期在美国实行了多达十项的建设性改革。经验丰富的高级管理人员相信经济衰退会带来世界性业务的新发展。极具智慧的IBM公司老总Sam Palmisano，在最近向对外关系委员会的演讲中表示他确信通过改变规则而不是安然度过风暴成功的新领导人将会出现。
Firms who want to be winners coming out of the downturn will also need the financial resources to seize any opportunities that arise during it. Interviewed in the Harvard Business Review, John Chambers, the boss of Cisco Systems, a network equipment-maker, said the firm tended to make more aggressive investments during bad times than good ones. When its rivals pulled back from Asia during the region’s financial crisis in 1997, Cisco deliberately increased its presence there, gaining a leading position it has never relinquished. Cisco’s experience is a timely reminder that while having plenty of cash is a powerful remedy in surviving a recession, if it is also deployed wisely it can produce a champion when the downturn ends.
想要走出低迷成为赢家的企业还需要财力资源去抓住这期间出现的任何机会。网络设备制造商Cisco集团的老总John Chambers，在接受哈佛商业评论采访时表示，公司在低迷时期会比在繁荣时期更倾向于积极的投资。1997年当公司的竞争对手们由于亚洲地区性金融危机撤出亚洲市场时，Cisco却增加产品投放量，获得了它从未放弃的领先地位。Cisco的经验是个鲜明的例子，说明了虽然企业拥有大量现金是立于衰退时期的有效救助，但如果再加上精心规划，这样的公司必将成为衰退结束时的大赢家。
20. Cisco 请参考 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CISCO
译者： Sunnee http://www.ecocn.org/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=15595&extra=page%3D1