[2008.11.22] 索马里的无政府状态：无法无天的非洲之角

Anarchy in Somalia
索马里的无政府状态

The lawless Horn
无法无天的非洲之角

Nov 20th 2008
From The Economist print edition

Pirates are only part of a much bigger problem in east Africa
海盗猖獗只是东非诸多问题的冰山一角

IT IS tempting to be jaunty about piracy. So what if a few Robin Hoods in skiffs nick the odd tanker off the Horn of Africa? Often enough, the owners pay ransom and nobody gets hurt. Everyone needs a living in these hard times. And if the worst comes to the worst, gunboats can always be dispatched to clean the problem up, just as the British and Americans did off north Africa’s Barbary coast at the turn of the 19th century.

说起海盗，人们总会不自觉地感到轻松愉快。那么如果一帮罗宾汉划着小船在非洲之角劫持了一艘油轮呢？通常的情况会是，船主交付赎金，继而人船平安。好汉不吃眼前亏，保命要紧。真到了万不得已的时候，炮艇才会登场，把这帮匪徒轰得灰飞烟灭。19世纪初叶，英美两国就在北非海岸痛击海盗。

It is tempting, but it is wrong. The Barbary pirates caused immense human and economic damage, and the current spate of piracy in the waters of east Africa is now getting out of hand too. On November 15th pirates operating hundreds of miles from the coast seized the Sirius Star, a supertanker carrying 2m barrels of Saudi oil (see [url=” target=_blank]article[/url]). A dozen or so other vessels are already held by pirates. One of them-surrounded by American and Russian warships-contains a cargo of 33 T-72 tanks, enough to tip the balance in a small local war.

不自觉会做的事情往往是错误的。当年北非海盗肆虐，人身财产安全蒙受巨大损失。如今，东非海域海盗猖獗，也已到了不可收拾的境地。11月15日，在离海岸线几百英里处，”天狼星”号油轮被海盗劫持，船上还载有200万桶从沙特运来的石油。在此之前被劫持的还有12艘左右的轮船。其中一艘载有33辆T-72坦克，旁边还有一些美俄军艇，其战斗力之强足以改变一场小型战争的局势。

The last thing the world needs right now is disruption of one of its busiest shipping lanes and a spike in insurance premiums. But the cause of the present surge of piracy is no less worrying than its consequences. What has made the pirates’ audacity possible is the collapse of Somalia. The existence of a vast ungoverned space in Africa’s Horn does not just provide a useful haven from which pirates can hunt their prey at sea. It also threatens to transmit shockwaves through a seam of fragile and strife-torn African states from Sudan to the Congo.

现在的当务之急绝非中断这条繁忙的航线或者抬高保险费。但海盗如此猖獗之缘由比之带来的损失同样令人担忧。正是因为索马里政府的无能才使得海盗敢如此胆大妄为。索马里基本处于无政府状态，海盗们有了这片乐土，便伺机出动。另外，索马里政府动荡的余波还可能波及其他脆弱、内外交困的非洲国家，比如苏丹和刚果。

How did this happen, and how can it be resolved? The first question is the easier to answer. About 50,000 peacekeepers are currently deployed under United Nations or African Union auspices in east and central Africa in an effort to dampen down various conflicts. In Somalia in 2006, however, the Bush administration tried something different: war by proxy. It gave a green light for Ethiopia to invade Somalia. The plan was for Ethiopia to squash an Islamist movement and reinstate a Somali government that had lost control of most of its territory.

这些是如何发生，又将如果解决呢？第一个问题较容易回答。联合国和非盟现已委派约50000名维和人员前往非洲东部和中部，旨在平息当地的冲突。2006年，布什政府在索马里问题上采取了不同的策略：外包战争。美国当时给埃塞俄比亚开了绿灯，允许其攻打索马里，旨在粉碎索马里国内的伊斯兰运动，重建政府，夺回业已失去的大部分领土。

Two years on, the plan has backfired. Abdullahi Ahmed, Somalia’s increasingly notional president, admitted on November 15th that a variety of Islamist insurgents once again dominate most of the country, leaving only two cities, Mogadishu and Baidoa, in the hands of his increasingly notional government. Neither Ethiopia nor the African Union ever sent enough soldiers to impose order. Worse, the strongest of the insurgent groups, the Shabab, is even more radical than the Islamic Courts movement which the Americans and Ethiopians originally took on. It is suspected of being linked by money to the pirates (who hand over a slice of the ransom in return for protection) and by ideology to al-Qaeda.

两年过去了，该计划的反作用开始凸显。索马里总统Abdullahi Ahmed越来越像个摆设。11月15日，他表示伊斯兰叛乱份子再次占领了大部分领土，留给这个同样越来越像摆设政府的只有摩加迪沙和拜多阿两座城市。埃塞俄比亚和非盟都未曾派遣足够的兵力以维持索马里国内的稳定。更糟的是，现势力最为强大的沙巴激进组织比原先美国和埃塞俄比亚对付的伊斯兰法庭联盟还要激进。人们怀疑该组织同海盗有金钱上的往来（海盗支付其一部分赎金权当保护费），意识形态上类似于基地组织。

So how to resolve the issue? It is not enough just to send more gunboats. Although an Indian warship sunk an alleged pirate vessel this week, and a bigger naval effort could help to keep the sea-lanes a little safer, a long-term solution demands much more. This includes establishing stability inside Somalia itself, depriving the pirates of a sanctuary, and preventing the jihad-tinted anarchy there from spilling over Somalia’s borders. But since there are no serious military forces available to defeat the insurgents, a proper answer will entail reshaping the country’s politics and stepping up attempts to woo the more biddable Islamists-if there are enough left and a deal with them is still possible. Maybe not so jaunty, after all.

怎样收拾这个烂摊子呢？一味地增加兵力还不够。虽然本周一艘印度战舰击据说沉了一艘海盗船，更为频繁的海上巡逻也使得航线较之以前相对安全，但根本之道显然不止这些。要想从根本上解决问题，就得先在索马里国内确保稳定，铲平海盗的庇护所，避免索国内的圣战”病毒”蔓延到周边国家。但由于没有可靠的军事力量打击叛乱份子，眼下之计就是重组该国政府，试图诏安那些相对听话的伊斯兰份子–前提是还有听话的伊斯兰份子和同他们达成协议仍旧可能。看来，海盗终究不是闹着玩的。

译者：james0401047  http://www.ecocn.org/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=15604&extra=page%3D1

不同译文，同样精彩：http://www.ecocn.org/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=15590&extra=page%3D1 译者：7colorwolf