[2008.10.25] 莱克星顿专栏：“奥巴马保守派”的兴起

Lexington
莱克星顿

The rise of the Obamacons
“奥巴马保守派”[注1]的兴起

Oct 23rd 2008
From The Economist print edition

A striking number of conservatives are planning to vote for Obama
众多的保守派人士正计划将选票投向奥巴马

IN “W.”, his biopic about his Yale classmate, Oliver Stone details Colin Powell’s agonies during George Bush’s first term. Throughout the film Mr Powell repeatedly raises doubts about the invasion of Iraq—and is repeatedly overruled by the ghoulish trio of Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld and Karl Rove. In one of the final scenes, with his direst warnings proving correct, Mr Powell turns to Mr Cheney and delivers a heartfelt “Fuck you”.

在执导的一部有关自己耶鲁大学同学小布什的名人传记《W.》[注2]中， 奥利弗•斯通详细地记述了科林•鲍威尔在小布什第一个任期内所遭受的痛苦。整个影片中，鲍威尔对入侵伊拉克屡次提出质疑—与此同时他也不断受到来自切 尼，拉姆斯菲尔德和卡尔•罗夫一唱一和地排斥。影片的最后一幕，鲍威尔最为可怕的警告得以最终证实，此时的他走向切尼的身边，发自内心地脱口而出：“去你 妈的（Fuck you）。”

The real Colin Powell used more diplomatic language in endorsing Barack Obama on October 19th, but the impact was much the same. Mr Obama is a “transformational figure”, he mildly said, and his old friend John McCain had erred in choosing a neophyte as a running-mate. But you would have to be naive not to see the endorsement as a verdict on the Bush years.

而在10月19日，现实中的鲍威尔却用更为老练圆滑的外交式辞令表达了对奥巴马的支持，但是这一行动所带来 的影响在很大程度上是相同的。奥巴马是一位变革型的领袖，鲍威尔温和地说道，而他的老朋友麦凯恩却错误地选择一位没有政治经验的新手作为竞选伙伴。然而， 如果你没有将该支持视为是对布什政绩的决断，那你无疑是天真幼稚的。

Mr Powell is now a four-star general in America’s most surprising new army: the Obamacons. The army includes other big names such as Susan Eisenhower, Dwight’s granddaughter, who introduced Mr Obama at the Democratic National Convention and Christopher Buckley, the son of the conservative icon William Buckley, who complains that he has not left the Republican Party: the Republican Party has left him. Chuck Hagel, a Republican senator from Nebraska and one-time bosom buddy of Mr McCain has also flirted heavily with the movement, though he has refrained from issuing an official endorsement.

鲍威尔目前是美国最让人惊讶的新军—“奥巴马保守派”的四星上将。这一新军阵营中还拥有着其他大名鼎鼎的人物，诸如在民主党全国代表大会上介绍奥巴马出场的美国前 总统德怀特•艾森豪威尔的孙女—苏珊•艾森豪威尔；还包括共和党已经抛弃的，而抱怨“自己没有脱离共和党”的保守派教父威廉•巴克利之子—克里斯 托弗•巴克利。此外，虽然没有发布正式的支持声明，作为麦凯恩曾经的亲密战友—内布拉斯加州参议员查克•哈格尔也对这一阵营暗送秋波。

The biggest brigade in the Obamacon army consists of libertarians, furious with Mr Bush’s big-government conservatism, worried about his commitment to an open-ended “war on terror”, and disgusted by his cavalier way with civil rights. There are two competing “libertarians for Obama” web sites. CaféPress is even offering a “libertarian for Obama” lawn sign for $19.95. Larry Hunter, who helped to devise Newt Gingrich’s Contract with America in 1994, thinks that Mr Obama can free America from the grip of the “zombies” who now run the Republican Party.

对布什大政府保守主义愤怒不已的自由主义者是奥巴马保守派阵营中最为庞大的一支力量。这些自由主义者过去对 布什所醉心的遥遥无期的“反恐战争”忧心忡忡，对他在民权上的轻浮傲慢唾弃反感。互联网上还有两家互为竞争对手的“为了奥巴马的自由主义者”网站。 CaféPress甚至推出了售价为19.95美元的“为了奥巴马的自由主义者”竞选广告牌。作为纽特•金里奇1994年发起的《同美利坚的契约》的[注3]协助起草人，莱瑞•亨特认为，奥巴马能够将美国从那些死气沉沉的共和党领袖们的掌控中解救出来。

But the army has many other brigades, too: repentant neocons such as Francis Fukuyama, legal scholars such as Douglas Kmiec, and conservative talk-show hosts such as Michael Smerconish. And it is picking up unexpected new recruits as the campaign approaches its denouement. Many disillusioned Republicans hoped that Mr McCain would provide a compass for a party that has lost its way, but now feel that the compass has gone haywire. Kenneth Adelman, who once described the invasion of Iraq as a “cakewalk”, decided this week to vote for Mr Obama mainly because he regards Sarah Palin as “not close to being acceptable in high office”.

这支新军还囊括了许多其他力量：转变立场的新保守主义者（如弗朗西斯•福山），法学学者（如道格拉斯•克密 科）以及保守派脱口秀主持人（如迈克尔•史默克里什）。与此同时，随着竞选活动日渐接近尾声，一些让人意想不到的新成员也加入到这一阵营的行列中。许多不 再抱有幻想的共和党人曾希望麦卡恩能够为这一迷失方向的政党指明走出困境的方向，现在他们却感到这一指向已经乱了套。曾经将入侵伊拉克描述成“小菜一碟” 的肯尼斯•阿迪莱曼本周决定将选票投向奥巴马，而这样做的主要原因是他认为佩林并不具备担负起高级职位的能力。

The rise of the Obamacons is more than a reaction against Mr Bush’s remodelling of the Republican Party and Mr McCain’s desperation: there were plenty of disillusioned Republicans in 2004 who did not warm to John Kerry. It is also a positive verdict on Mr Obama. For many conservatives, Mr Obama embodies qualities that their party has abandoned: pragmatism, competence and respect for the head rather than the heart. Mr Obama’s calm and collected response to the turmoil on Wall Street contrasted sharply with Mr McCain’s grandstanding.

奥巴马保守派的崛起不仅是反对布什对共和党的改造以及麦凯恩的绝望所产生的效应（因为在2004年，许多幻 想破灭的共和党人对约翰•克里并无好感），也是对奥巴马的正面评价的一种反映。对于许多保守主义者而言，奥巴马实现了他们政党已经抛弃的品质：实用主义， 恪尽职守，充满睿智而非意气用事。在应对华尔街金融风暴上，奥巴马的镇定从容与麦卡恩的哗众取宠形成了鲜明的对照。

Much of Mr Obama’s rhetoric is strikingly conservative, even Reaganesque. He preaches the virtues of personal responsibility and family values, and practises them too. He talks in uplifting terms about the promise of American life. His story also appeals to conservatives: it holds the possibility of freeing America from its racial demons, proving that the country is a race-blind meritocracy and, in the process, bankrupting a race-grievance industry that has produced the likes of Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton.

奥巴马的许多保守主义，甚至带有里根式的言论无不让人侧目。他不但倡导个人责任的美德，家庭价值观念，同时 也身体力行。他对提高美国生活水平所做的承诺振奋人心。他的经历也深深地吸引了保守主义者：这些经历让美国摆脱种族主义阴霾成为可能，向世人证明了美国是 一个不分种族的精英国度，在此过程中，这也让产生过杰西•杰克逊和阿尔•夏普顿之流的种族怨恨团体无容身之所。

How much do these Obamacons matter? More than Mr McCain would like to think. The Obamacons are manifestations of a deeper turmoil in the Republican rank-and-file, as the old coalition of small-government activists, social conservatives and business Republicans falls apart. They also influence opinion. This is obvious in the case of Mr Powell: Mr Obama is making liberal use of his endorsement to refute the latest Republican criticism that he is a “socialist”. But it is also true of lesser-known scribblers. At least 27 newspapers that backed Mr Bush in 2004 have endorsed Mr Obama.

这些奥巴马的保守派支持者们究竟有多重要？他们带来的影响超出了麦凯恩的想象。随着小政府积极份子，社会保 守主义者以及商界的共和党人士所结成的旧有联盟土崩瓦解，奥巴马保守派显示了普通共和党人内部所存在的动荡不安。这些保守派的支持者们也对舆论施加了影 响。这在鲍威尔身上尤为明显：奥巴马大大方方地利用了鲍威尔对他的支持，对最近共和党指责他是一名社会主义者的批评给与了有力的驳斥。一些鲜为人知的三流 作家也是如此。至少有27家曾经在2004年大选中支持布什的报纸已经支持了奥巴马。

Moreover, the revolt of the intellectuals is coinciding with a migration of culturally conservative voters—particularly white working-class voters—into Obamaland. Mr Obama is now level-pegging or leading among swing-groups such as Catholics and working-class whites. A recent Washington Post-ABC poll shows him winning 22% of self-described conservatives, a higher proportion than any Democratic nominee since 1980.

此外，与在文化上持有保守主义观点的选民—尤其是出身工人阶级的白人选民不谋而合的是知识分子也转而支 持奥巴马。目前，在诸如天主教徒以及工人阶级白人这样的摇摆群体中，奥巴马与麦凯恩要么平分秋色，要么领先于麦凯恩。最近一项华盛顿邮报–ABC民意调 查显示，自称是保守主义者的调查者中有22%的人士支持奥巴马，这是自1980年以来所有民主党总统候选人在这一群体中的最高支持率。

Don’t blame the rats
请不要将责任归咎于叛逆者

The more tantalising question is whether the rise of the Obamacons signals a lasting political realignment. In 1980 the rise of the neocons—liberal intellectuals who abandoned a spineless Democratic Party—was reinforced by the birth of working class “Reagan Democrats”. Is the Reagan revolution now going into reverse? There are reasons for scepticism. Will libertarians really stick with “Senator Government”, as Mr McCain labelled Mr Obama in the best slip of the tongue of the campaign? Will economic conservatives cleave to a president who believes in “spreading the wealth around”?

更让人关心的一个问题是，奥巴马保守派的兴起是否预示着一场持久的政治洗牌。1980年，自由主义知识分子脱离懦弱无力的民主党成为新保守主义者，这一群 体的崛起随着出身工人阶级的里根式民主党人的诞生而得以强化。里根革命如今正走向颠覆吗？产生这一疑问自有它的道理。正如麦凯恩将奥巴马列为总统竞选活动 中最能发生口误的人，自由主义者会真正紧随“参议员政府”的领导吗？经济保守主义者会忠于一个秉承着“均贫富”理念的总统吗？

Much depends on how Mr Obama governs if he wins, and how the Republicans behave if they lose. Mr Obama talks about creating an administration of all the talents. He promises to take the cultural anxieties of Reagan Democrats seriously. For their part, hard-core Republicans are handling their party’s travails abysmally, retreating into elite-bashing populism and denouncing the Obamacons as “rats” who are deserting a sinking ship. If the Republican Party continues to think that the problem lies with the rats, rather than the seaworthiness of the ship, then the Obamacons are here to stay.

这些在很大程度上取决于奥巴马获胜后将如何治理这个国家，以及共和党在失败后将如何表现。奥巴马考虑创建一 个人才济济的政府机构。他承诺将认真对待里根式民主党人的文化诉求。对共和党的骨干们而言，他们糟糕地应对着这一困境，这些骨干们不仅蜕化为反精英的平民 主义者，同时还指责奥巴马保守派是弃“沉船”而逃跑的“叛逆者”。如果共和党还是将问题归咎于“这些叛逆者”身上，而不去反思这艘“船”的耐航性，那么奥 巴马保守派将成为既定的事实。


[注1]: 奥巴马保守派(Obamacon):这个词最早出现是在今年1月，原来是用来形容英国那些对奥巴马死忠的保守派。今年3月13日《美国观察家》杂志扩大解释，泛指所有支持这位民主党总统候选人的保守派选民。

[注2]：《W.》是好莱坞著名导演奥利弗•斯通执导的一部有关美国现任总统小布什的名人传记片。与此同时，奥利弗•斯通与小布什同为耶鲁大学校友。

[注3]：《同美利坚的契约》（Contract with America）：1994年11月美国共和党同时在参议院和众议院取得多数席位之后，以纽特•金里奇为首的国会共和党人发表的一篇宣言，题目就叫 “contract with America”（同美利坚的契约）。这篇宣言声称要通过重新缔结同美国人民的契约，来恢复人民对国会和政府的信任。

Anyone is welcomed to redistribute and quote the content of this work only if he or she notes its origin.

译者：Phantom   http://www.ecocn.org/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=15148&extra=page%3D1