[2008.09.06] 英国经济：到底有多烂

Britain’s economy
英国经济

How bad is it?
到底有多烂

Sep 4th 2008
From The Economist print edition

Not as wretched as the doomsters claim; but reviving the British economy will take time
虽然不像末日论者宣称的那样悲惨，但复苏英国经济确实需要一些时间

“THE nine most terrifying words in the English language”, Ronald Reagan is held to have said, “are: ‘I’m from the government and I’m here to help.'” If only Gordon Brown had listened. The prime minister’s plan, revealed on September 2nd, to keep Britain’s troubled ￡4 trillion ($7 trillion) housing market “moving forward” by advancing some ￡1.6 billion-worth of help to first-time buyers, purchasers of modest properties and homeowners struggling to meet their mortgage payments was never going to be more than cosmetic. In the event it mixed a few sensible ideas (faster help for those whose banks threaten to repossess their houses) with a few dotty ones (luring first-time buyers into a falling market). But the overall effect was minimal.
英首相戈登布朗真应该仔细领悟美前总统罗纳德.里根的名言，里根曾说过”英语中最可怕的九个单词是–我是政府派来帮助你的”。布朗九月二日公布了维持英国房屋市场继续发展的计划；为了挽救这个价值四万亿英镑（约合七万亿美元）的烂摊子，政府决定向向市场投入价值十六亿英镑的援助来帮助首次购买房屋的人、普通财产购买者和房主摆脱按揭危机，而这只可能是杯水车薪。该计划是一些明智的见解与疯癫想法的组合：聪明的想法是尽快帮助那些即将被贷款银行收回房屋的人，疯狂之处在于此举将首次购房者吸引到这了滥沼泽中。这个计划的总体效果微乎其微。

The details of Mr Brown’s housing plans are the least of his problems. A few days before their announcement, his chancellor of the exchequer, Alistair Darling, hijacked the headlines for a week when he said that economic times were the worst in 60 years. Mr Darling gamely maintained later that he had been talking about prospects for the world, not for Britain in particular. But before that dog had even tried to hunt, the OECD, a rich-country think-tank, released a widely reported assessment of the outlook for the world’s seven biggest economies. Britain, it reckons, is the only one facing recession (two quarters of negative growth) this year. This called into question Mr Brown’s oft-repeated claim that economic woes are global, and well-managed Britain is better placed than most to deal with them.
布朗先生房屋计划中的细节似乎是他所面对问题中最小的一个。计划出台之前的一周，英国财政大臣达林的言论抢下了所有报刊的头条，他表示英国的经济形势达到了60年来的最低谷。但后来达林倔强的坚持他的言论针对的是全球展望，不特别针对英国。辩解之辞话音未落，经济合作与发展组织这个发达国家的智囊团就已经大范围的公布了(范围宽广的)评估报告，对象是世界前七位国家的经济预期。英国是预测中今年唯一面临衰退的国家，连续两个季度的负增长（负增长达到了负百分之二十五）。这使布朗先生常挂在嘴边的主张备受怀疑，他宣称经济灾难是全球性的，管理完善的大英帝国比其他国家的境况要好很多。

The good, the bad and the ugly
好消息，坏事情和丑陋行为

That the British economy has serious problems is pretty obvious. Britain’s housing bubble was more dangerously inflated than most countries’; its households are more indebted; financial services account for a bigger share of its economy; and its government, thanks in large part to Mr Brown, spent with both hands during long years of unremitting economic growth, leaving little scope for fiscal fine-tuning now.
英国经济问题的严重性已经相当明显了：房市泡沫膨胀到了异常危险的程度；房屋所有人的负债程度加深；金融服务在国家经济中的占比不断增高；虽然长久以来因国经济在不懈的增长，但政府的花销可谓大手大脚，这都是布朗先生的功劳；所有这些都导致目前国库鲜有微调的空间。

So the bad news is clustering thick and fast. The economy stagnated in the three months to June. Gloomy forecasts come not just from think-tanks: the governor of the Bank of England says that growth will be flat for a year. Sterling has lost 15% of its trade-weighted value over the past year, and 5% over the past month. Consumer-price inflation is widely expected to hit 5% this year (more than twice its official target), though the sharp drop in oil prices may blunt that spike. Unemployment is edging up. And the housing market is collapsing: prices have fallen by 11% in a year, and the number of new mortgage approvals in July was 71% lower than the same month last year.
噩耗快速的聚集在一起，经济萧条从四月开始已经持续到六月，沮丧的预期不光来自经济合作与发展组织：英国银行董事表示本年内经济的发展不会有大的起色，本币的贸易加权值比去年下降了百分之十五，比上个月下降了百分之五；尽管原油价格的跌落有可能减缓膨胀趋势，但本年度消费品物价膨胀率还是被大胆的预测能够达到百分之五；失业情况达到新高(即将结束)；房市崩溃，价格以年之内跌落了百分之十一，七月份新增住房按揭的通过数量同比下降了百分之七十一。

The picture looks even more dismal compared with the United States. The American economy is growing again, the dollar is bouncing back and some people even reckon the housing crisis has touched bottom. Whether this is mainly owing to a $180 billion fiscal handout (whose effects may fade), America’s inexhaustible energy and now-flourishing exports, or the simple fact that it stumbled earlier is a matter of debate. Whatever the answer, Britain’s prospects appear grim in comparison.
与美国相比，英国的整体情况更显凄凉。美国经济实现了再度增长，美元汇率反弹，有人甚至预测房市危机已经探底。促成形式好转的原因目前还不明朗，有可能一千八百亿美元的财政救市，虽然效果会逐渐消退；也有可能美国用之不绝的能源以及目前繁荣的出口贸易；或者简单到前一阵子的低迷只是大家的一种争论。不管答案是哪个，相比之下英国的前景相当冷酷。

But the worst outlook in six decades? Nonsense. Britain is not going to return to the rationing of the 1940s, the three-day working week and 25%-plus inflation of the 1970s, or the 3m unemployed of the early 1980s. Nor does Britain look so bad in comparison with the neighbours. The somewhat flaky OECD report was sexed up in the retelling (see article); and, while Britain is teetering on the brink of recession, the euro zone is already shrinking.
但真的是六十年以来最滥的前景吗？太荒唐了。英国不会回到四十年代的定量供应的时代，也不会象七十年代那样每周三天工作日、通胀率超过百分之二十五，也不会像八十年代那样拥有三百万失业人口；而且英国同邻邦比起来也不是看起来那么糟糕。经济合作与发展组织的报告在不停的转述时越来越邪乎；并且在英国蹒跚于衰退边缘的时候，欧元区也已经开始缩水。

So Mr Brown is right to point out not only that others share Britain’s suffering (see article) but also that there is a resilience to its economy. That’s partly because Britain’s labour and product markets are more flexible than many of its neighbours’: the labour market has a safety valve in the form of the 1m workers who arrived from central and eastern Europe over the past four years and are now beginning to go home. And it is also because high energy prices, while hurting consumers, boost government revenues thanks to the remnants of North Sea oil and gas production. What’s more, even though Mr Brown has played fast and loose with the rules for fiscal prudence he put in place, they nevertheless make it harder for him to spend as wildly as some of his predecessors did on finding themselves in a fix.
因此布朗先生所指出的两点是正确的：别的国家同英国一样承受着痛苦；同时英国经济有所反弹。这部分是因为英国的劳动力和产品市场比他的邻邦更具弹性。劳动力市场的弹性来源于一个安全的调节阀：一百万个在过去四年中来自中欧和东欧的工人现在开始返乡；还有一个原因是能源的高价格，虽然会伤害到消费者的利益，但是却有助于政府的收入，这要感谢北海残存的原油和天然气产量。此外，布朗先生戏耍了由自己定下审慎基调的财政制度，不过他很难象那些自留方便之门的前任那样肆无忌惮的花销。

But Mr Brown, an arch meddler, is wrong to suggest that the government can or should make it all better. A certain amount of fiscal stimulus is working its way through the system now: some ￡2.7 billion will be paid next month to taxpayers who lost out when the 10% tax band was abolished from April; and benefits rise and tax receipts fall automatically when the economy turns down. But setting out to spend significantly more or tax significantly less would be risky, even if the state of the public finances permitted it. A big fiscal-stimulus package would tend to push prices up and thus make it hard for the Bank of England to reduce interest rates. The Bank kept its base rate at 5% this week, but it will be looking to cut before long.
这位爱管闲事布朗先生还总是自视清高，但是他不应该建议政府去改变这一切。一些财政机制正在整个系统中进行工作：二十七亿英镑会在下个月返还给因为取消税阶而亏本的纳税人，百分之十的税阶于四月份被废止；经济走下坡路的时候税收收入会自动地下降，而津贴费则会上升。但是即使国家财政部批准，开始大量支出或者削减税收也会很危险。太过强大的财政机制组合可能会抬高物价，从而使英国银行降低利率的难度加大。本周的基准利率是百分之五，但是不久之后就会再次削减。

No goodies, please
不要小恩惠，谢了

The truth is that Britain is simply going to have to take it on the chin for a while. There is no easy fix, no return to the days of plucking credit cards and mortgages off trees. Sterling was overvalued; it is now falling; in time exports will respond (perhaps quite a long time, as Britain’s main export market is sluggish Europe). Housing was grotesquely overpriced; prices are slumping; in time they will reach a level at which poorer young Britons can buy themselves a home. These are painful but necessary realignments.
事实是英国现在不得不忍受一阵子痛苦，解决问题不可能那么轻松。信用卡和按揭可以信手拈来的好日子一去不复返了。本币以前被高估，所显现在贬值；而出口则会如期的作出反应，英国的主要出口目标是迟钝的欧洲，所以反应的时间也许会很长。房市的价格更是被高估的离谱，所以价钱狂跌，到时候价格水平会使英国并不富足的年轻一代给自己置办一套房产。这些都会很痛苦，但却是必须的调整。

The principal danger now is not economic but political. Sterling fell on September 1st because Mr Darling revealed not new truths about the economy but divisions and indecisiveness at the heart of government. Twenty points behind in the opinion polls, Mr Brown is understandably searching for some goodies to hand out. Fortunately, the ones he produced this week will make little difference. When he finds some that do, start worrying.
而现在首要的危机并不时经济层面的，而是政治上的。英国本币九月一日下跌的原因是达林先生最新公布的事实并非与经济相关，而是反映了政府核心的分歧和犹豫不决。布朗先生在民以测验中落后了二十个点，他到处寻找好处来派发的举动是可以理解的。不走运的是本周他制造出来的这个却没有什么成效，如果他找到什么东西可以笼络人心，那才是真让人担心的呢。

译者：Tidehunter   http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=13829&extra=page%3D1