Pakistan
巴基斯坦
Beyond Musharraf
后穆沙拉夫时代
Aug 14th 2008
From The Economist print edition
Pakistan’s government should forget about punishing the president and get on with governing
巴基斯坦政府不该总想着对总统口诛笔伐，而是应该继续治理国家。
THE story of Pervez Musharraf’s rise and fall has been a long and rather sad one. A skilful and decent professional soldier, he took power in 1999 amid chaos caused by corrupt and incompetent politicians, came to like the stuff and clung on to it far too long. A good friend to the West in the fight against al-Qaeda, he became a liability as he stalled on the promised return to democracy and his countrymen turned against him. Now the story seems to be nearing its end (see article).
穆沙拉夫起起落落的政治故事不仅漫长，而且悲剧的意味十足。1999年巴基斯坦陷入了由于腐败和无能的政客所引发的混乱中，穆沙拉夫当时还是一个经验丰富且处事得体的职业军人，那场混乱成就了他的霸业；对于夺取的政权他逐渐变得爱不释手并且长时间的紧握不放。在对抗基地组织的战争中他成为了西方势力的盟友；但是当他在在承诺回归民主政体的问题上犹豫不前的时候，就变成了一个障碍，国人也因此而背叛他。目前似乎整个故事即将落幕。
For the government elected in February, which is seeking to impeach Mr Musharraf, this is both a danger and an opportunity. The danger is that, once Mr Musharraf has gone and it has no common hatred to unite its disparate parts, it descends into feuding and paralysis. The opportunity is to transcend its preoccupation with president and to start tackling the two huge problems Pakistan faces: the spread of Islamist militancy and a fast-sinking economy.
对于2月份才选举出的政府来说，弹劾穆沙拉夫的尝试是机遇与危险并存的双刃剑：危险在于一旦穆沙拉夫受到弹劾，由持有不同政见团体组成的新政府便失去了团结的纽带——对穆沙拉夫的共同仇恨，新政府内部必然发生争执并且陷入瘫痪。机遇在于可以让政府超越单纯辅助总统的工作，开始处理巴基斯坦所面临的两大问题：回教徒武装冲突的扩散和经济的快速衰落。
First, though, Mr Musharraf should go. He is already much diminished in power since he sloughed off the “second skin” of his army chief’s uniform last year and became a president in mufti. His term finished last year. He claims to be a democrat, and it is clear his people want him out. To bestow a new term on himself he flouted the spirit and possibly the letter of the constitution by getting the outgoing parliament to re-elect him. When the new parliament was elected in February, his supporters were trounced-not just because of sympathy for their opponents after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, a former prime minister, but also because he is so unpopular.
但是，穆沙拉夫应该离任。去年他脱掉了可以称为”第二肌肤”的陆军参谋长制服，成为只穿便装的总统；这种转变本身已经大大削减了他的权力。去年任期结束后他宣布成为一个民主主义者，但是他的人民却明确的希望他离开。为了争取新的任期，他不惜让那个行将破碎的国会再次选举他为总统，而这一行为已经构成了对宪法精神甚至是内容的严重蔑视。2月份新国会通过选举成立后，穆沙拉夫的支持者受到了打压，不光是因为前总理贝.布托的刺杀事件为其对手赢得了同情心，也因为穆沙拉夫本人非常的不受欢迎。
His chances of hanging on are, anyway, small. He could try to fight impeachment in parliament, by cajoling venal politicians there. He could challenge it in the courts. Worst, he could resort to his presidential powers to declare a state of emergency. That would be, in effect, another coup by a man who took power in one and sustained himself by declaring a state of emergency last November. It is, however, unlikely to happen. Mr Musharraf is no longer army chief, and his successor, though his nominee, has so far shown creditably little inclination to leave the barracks. It is in the interests of both the country and the armed forces that the soldiers should stay there. Previous civilian administrations have been corrupt and inept, but so has the army rule that has routinely supplanted them. For Pakistan to break this vicious circle, it needs an army that renounces coups, come what may.
穆沙拉夫坚持下去的希望已经很渺茫，他可以通过哄骗或者贿赂国会中的政客来对抗弹劾，也可以在法庭上挑战弹劾案，万般无奈的时候他至少还可以行使总统权力来宣布国家进入紧急状态。而最后的那张王牌实际上将成为这个去年11月通过宣布国家紧急状态而实现集权的人发动的另一次政变，但此次成功的概率很小。穆沙拉夫已经不再是陆军参谋长，继任者虽然是他一手提拔起来的，但是目前丝毫没有放权的意思。保持军队的稳定不仅仅是出于国家利益的考虑，同时也是军界的声音。上一届民选政府不仅无能而且极度腐败，但是取代它的军政府目前的状态和上届是一样的。巴基斯坦需要一支在任何情况下都不会政变的军队才有可能打破这个恶性循环。
The politicians also need to avoid repeating past mistakes. The coalition government is led by Bhutto’s widower, Asif Zardari, and Nawaz Sharif, the prime minister Mr Musharraf overthrew in 1999. Understandably, they have focused on getting rid of, and punishing, the president. But they should allow him to leave with as much dignity as he can salvage. Resignation would be humiliation enough. Allegations that he has embezzled huge amounts of American aid need to be investigated. But Messrs Zardari and Sharif need to abjure the backward-looking score-settling and forward-looking nest-lining that have characterised previous Bhutto and Sharif regimes, put aside their mutual loathing and work together to fight extremism and repair the economy.
政客们同样需要避免一错再错。联合政府的领导者均系出名门，Asif Zardari 是贝.布托的鳏夫，而沙里夫则是99年被穆沙拉夫推翻的总理；因此他们精诚团结在一起，努力罢黜总统并对他施以惩戒的行为就很容易理解了。不过他们应该允许穆沙拉夫带着全部可以挽留的尊严体面的卸任，因为辞职本身就已经足够耻辱了。关于他挪用巨额美国援助的指控有待进一步调查。Messrs Zardari和谢里夫需要坚决的放弃保守的利益争夺和激进的中饱私囊，这两点是上届政权的标志性特征；同时他们还要把互相的憎恶放置在一边，共同工作抵抗极端主义，复苏国家经济。
The Taliban and the economy, stupid
笨蛋！盯着点儿塔利班和国家经济
The threat posed by the “Pakistani Taliban”, both in the tribal areas that blur into Afghanistan, and in Pakistan itself, is mounting. Fighting this week alone has claimed some 300 lives. The struggle against the extremists has been unpopular in Pakistan. It is seen as America’s, Afghanistan’s and Mr Musharraf’s war. Politicians have therefore tended to play down its importance. But Pakistanis are not, by and large, religious extremists. Defeating Pakistan’s version of the Taliban is in the interests not just of the West but also of the country’s moderate majority.
由”巴基斯坦塔利班运动”武装组织所引发的威胁在与阿富汗接壤的村落地区和巴基斯坦内陆都在增加。本周的交火就夺去了300人的生命，同极端分子的斗争在巴基斯坦从来就没有受到过支持，人们认为这只是美国，阿富汗和穆沙拉夫的战争。于是政客们希望降低战争的重要程度，但基本上巴基斯坦的宗教极端分子不这样认为。击败巴基斯坦塔利班运动不仅仅是为了西方的利益，也是为了国家多数普通人的利益。
The other priority must be the deteriorating economy. Mr Musharraf made much of his governments’ alleged economic competence. But despite the billions of dollars of American aid that have poured into the country, the Asian Development Bank reported last year that its poorest people were worse off than they were a decade earlier, before Mr Musharraf took over. Uniquely in Asia, Pakistan had seen a slight rise in the number of people living on less than the equivalent of a dollar a day. In the past year the sharp increase in food and fuel prices has made their lot even harder. Annual inflation is now running at 25%. Economic hardship is feeding extremism. Pakistan’s politicians have more important things to do than settle old scores.
另一个重中之重就是日益恶化的经济形势。穆沙拉夫只是提高了政府所谓治里经济的能力，据亚洲发展银行去年的报告显示，尽管美国政府提供向巴基斯坦提供了数十亿美元，巴国内贫民的生活状况甚至比穆沙拉夫刚刚上台的时候还要糟糕很多。巴基斯坦是亚洲唯一处于低保水平线以下的国民数量有增长的国家，去年粮油价格的骤增使他们的命运更加坎坷；年通胀率已经上涨到25%。经济上的苦难助长了极端主义的发展。巴基斯坦的政客们有比清算旧账更重要的事情要做。
译者：Tidehunter http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=13401&extra=page%3D1