[2008.08.16] 经济聚焦：言过其实的论断

Economics focus
经济聚焦

Inflated claims
言过其实的论断

Aug 14th 2008
From The Economist print edition

Why China is not to blame for the surge in global inflation
为何中国不应该为全球通胀飙升承担责任

MANY people in America and Europe think that the recent surge in inflation, like almost everything else these days, is “made in China”. For a number of years, cheap Chinese goods helped to reduce prices in rich economies, but more recently wages and prices have surged in China. On top of this, the hungry dragon’s insatiable appetite for food, energy and other raw materials has given cartoonists an emotive image for the surge in global commodity prices. As a result, it is claimed, China is no longer exporting deflation to the rich world, but inflation.

美国与欧洲的许多人认为最近的通货膨胀像是现在许多别的物品一样，都是”中国制造”。许多年来，便宜的中国商品降低了许多发达国家的物价水平，但是最近中国国内的工资与物价水平飙升不少。除此之外，饥饿之龙对粮食、能源和其它原材料无法满足的食欲给了漫画家一个全球商品价格飙升的动感形象。因此，有了这样的断言：中国对于发达国家不再是通货紧缩的出口国，而是通货膨胀的出口国。

China’s inflation rate did indeed hit almost 9% earlier this year (by July it had fallen to 6.3%). And after declining for several years, the prices of America’s imports from China jumped by 5.3% in the year to July, pushing up the prices of goods in Wal-Mart, where many Americans shop. However, import prices from China are rising more slowly than the cost of goods from elsewhere: the average price of manufactured goods imported into America from industrialised countries rose by 10.1% over the past year (see left-hand chart). Moreover, all of the increase in the price of Chinese imports reflects the fall in the dollar against the yuan, not higher costs in China. In yuan terms, average Chinese export prices are still falling.

中国的通胀率确实在今年早些时候几乎快达到9％（在七月份已经降到6.3％）。在下降了好几年之后，美国7月份从中国进口产品的价格比一年前提高了 5.3％，提高了沃尔玛里商品的价格–许多美国人常去那里购物。然而，从中国进口的货物价格上升程度远远慢于来自其它地区货物的成本的上升程度：从其他发达国家进口的制成品的价格相对于去年上升了10.1％（如左图所示）。此外，所有从中国进口产品价格的上升也反映了美元对人民币的贬值，而不是中国国内更高的成本。从人民币角度来衡量，中国出口品的价格仍在下降。

There is something to the claim that China’s huge demand for food and energy is pushing up global commodity prices. China has accounted for a big slice of the growth in global consumption of oil and especially metals this decade, helping to drive prices higher. But its effect on global prices over the past year (when rich-world inflation took off) is easily overstated. The pace of growth in China’s oil demand slowed to 4% last year. That is still relatively high, but not nearly as much as its annual rate of 12% in 2001-04, a period when the Fed was fretting about deflation, not inflation. And China’s food production has grown faster than consumption over the past few years. As a small, but growing, net exporter of wheat, maize and rice, China has, if anything, helped to ease world grain prices.

对于中国对粮食和能源的巨大需求推高全球商品价格也有一些可辩护的地方。中国占世界新增石油和金属（特别是在这十年间）消耗的一大块，这导致了价格的上升。但是这在过去一年（正是发达国家通胀开始的时候）对于世界价格的影响显然被夸大了。中国对于石油需求的增长速度去年降到4％。这虽然相对仍比较高，但是比起其2001年四月的12％的年增长率低多了，但那时美联储则是正为着通货紧缩而烦恼，而不是通货膨胀。而且中国过去几年粮食生产的增速大于其消耗的速度。做为一个小型的，但是在增长的，小麦、玉米和大米的净出口国，中国更可能是在降低世界谷物价格。

A more nuanced argument, suggested in a recent speech by Donald Kohn, the Federal Reserve’s vice-chairman, is that lax monetary policies have recently caused emerging economies such as China to grow too fast, putting extra demand on resources. Mr Kohn concluded that central banks in emerging economies should tighten policy to restrain economic growth and so reduce global inflation. There are merits to this argument, but there is also a danger that Mr Kohn may be trying to pass the buck. After all, America’s interest rates have been historically low for most of the past decade and thus it must share much of the responsibility for higher global inflation.

一个更加微妙的证据是，美联储副主席Donald Kohn在最近一次讲话中说，正是宽松的货币政策导致最近一些新兴经济体例如中国增长太快，导致对资源更多的需求。Kohn先生的结论是新兴经济体央行应该实施从紧的政策以抑制经济增长而降低世界通货膨胀。这个观点有些可取之处，但是同样有危险–Kohn先生可能是在设法推卸责任。毕竟，美国的利率已达到过去几十年的历史低点，因此必须有人来分担更高的世界通胀的责任。

Mr Kohn used to argue that globalisation had a muted impact on American inflation. In 2006 he said that emerging economies were mildly disinflationary, because by running current-account surpluses they were adding more to global supply than to demand. China still has a large external surplus, so-using the same logic-how can it now be fuelling world inflation? Other inconsistencies abound. Some economists accuse China of overheating and exporting inflation, at the same time as they criticise it for overinvesting and creating excess capacity, which would imply downward pressure on prices. Last year it was fashionable to argue that China should boost its domestic demand to reduce its excess saving; now it is being told to tighten monetary policy, which would slow the growth in demand.

Kohn先生过去经常认为全球化有利于缓和对美国的通胀压力。2006年他说新兴经济体正在适度的通货紧缩，因为为使经常账户盈余，他们对于世界的供给比需求更多。中国仍有巨大的对外顺差，因此，以同样的逻辑来看，他们怎么会加剧世界通胀呢？其它的矛盾也大量存在。一些经济学家指责中国经济过热并且输出通胀，但是同时他们也批评中国由于过分投资产生过多产能。而这些过多的产能则意味着减小物价上升的压力。去年最时髦的话题就是中国应该提升其国内需求以减少其过多的储蓄；而现在则告诉其要实施从紧的货币政策，以减慢需求的增长。

Cheap at twice the price
物超所值

Some of this confusion reflects a widespread misunderstanding about how China’s integration into the world economy affects prices in the rich world. A common mistake is to assume that falling export prices mean that China is exporting disinflation, whereas rising export prices imply it is exporting inflation. The truth is that the level of Chinese prices matters much more than their rate of increase. China helped to hold down inflation in developed economies not because its prices were falling, but because its goods were much cheaper.

这些糊涂和混淆反映了对于中国融合进入世界经济体如何影响发达国家物价的一个普遍的误解。一个共同的错误就是主观臆断地认为下降的出口价格意味着中国在输出通货紧缩，而上升的出口价格意味着中国在输出通货膨胀。而其实是中国的价格水平远比其增速重要。中国帮助抑制发达国家的通胀不是因为其输出价格的下降而是因为其产品非常便宜。

In theory, global trade should cause prices in different countries to converge: the prices of low-cost producers should gradually increase as wages rise (ie, China’s falling prices were a temporary anomaly), while the prices of high-cost producers should fall. Thus so long as China’s wages and the prices of its goods remain well below those in rich countries (see right-hand chart, above), its increasing penetration of world markets will continue to depress prices for many years. For example, according to BCA Research, a firm of economic analysts, the prices of Chinese exports of electric motors and generators doubled over the past five years, yet because they remain much cheaper than American-produced products, their share of the American market has more than doubled, forcing local producers to cut prices. As China moves up the value chain, it will export cheaper products in new industries, such as cars. This will help to hold down global prices-although possibly by less than in the past.

从理论上来说，世界贸易会使得全球不同地区的价格趋于一致：低成本制造者的价格会随着其工资的上涨而上涨（这就是说，中国产品价格的下降是一个短暂的反常行为），而于此同时高成本制造者者的价格应该下降。因此，只要中国的工资和产品价格仍低于发达国家（如上方有图所示），中国向世界的日益融入仍然会使物价降低很多年。例如，根据一家经济分析公司BCA Research的研究，中国出口的电动机和发电机在过去五年内上升了一倍，然而由于其价格仍比美国生产的产品便宜的多，他们在美国的市场份额变为原来的两倍多，迫使美国本地生产者降低价格。随着提升其产品价值链，中国将会在新的工业领域出口更便宜的产品，例如汽车。这将会有助于抑制全球价格–虽然可能比以往的作用小些。

Perhaps the best way to determine China’s impact on world inflation is to gauge whether its net impact is to increase aggregate global demand or supply. China is boosting both, but so far its “positive supply shock” has been the more important. The integration of China and other emerging economies into the world trading system has, in effect, more than doubled the global labour force, and by curbing workers’ bargaining power it has restrained pay demands in most developed economies in recent years. Despite higher consumer prices in America and the euro area, wage growth has remained subdued and real wages have fallen, which has prevented inflation from becoming entrenched.

也许确定中国对于世界通胀影响的最佳方法就是测算其对全球净影响是增加了需求还是增加了供给。中国两方面都在增长，但是现在其”正面供应冲击”还是更重要的。中国和其它新兴经济体融入世界贸易体系，增加了两倍的世界劳动力，并且遏制了近些年来发达国家工人谈判的能力，限制了其工资增长的要求。尽管美国和欧元区的消费价格高企，但是工资增长仍处于柔和状态，而且实际工资已经下降，这也阻止了通胀的进一步加剧。

Imagine if China did not trade with the rest of the world. Oil prices would be cheaper, whereas clothes, DVD players and computers would be dearer. China’s biggest global impact is on relative prices. The net result, however, is still disinflationary. China is a handy scapegoat, but the real blame for the rise in inflation in the rich world may lie with monetary policy closer to home.

想象一下如果中国不和世界其他地区进行贸易。油价可能会很便宜，但是衣服，DVD播放器和电脑会更贵。中国对于全球最大的影响是在相对价格上。不管怎样，其净结果是抑制通胀的。中国是个容易找到的替罪羊，但是将发达国家通货膨胀的上升的真正原因归罪于货币政策则会触及其痛处。

译者：rushor    http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=13326&extra=page%3D1