The economy: the problem
美国经济：困境
Workingman’s blues
劳动者之殇
Jul 24th 2008 | KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI
From The Economist print edition
Americans are furious about the state of their country. In the first of two articles, we examine the reasons for their discontent
美国人对国家状况怒不可遏，本文探讨了他们不满的原因。
JOEL AND JACKIE BRENDE differ on many things. He’s a Republican, and thrilled to have just shaken John McCain’s hand at a town-hall meeting in Kansas City, Missouri. She’s a Democrat, who supports Barack Obama because she thinks it is “time for a change”. But both of them agree that America’s star is fading.
雅意和杰克在很多事上看法不同。杰克是个共和党，刚刚在密苏里州堪萨斯市的选民见面会上麦凯恩握过手，激动不已。雅意是个民主党，支持奥巴马，因为她觉得”是时候该做出改变了”。但他们都认为美国的星光正日趋暗淡。
“We were always optimistic when we were young. We thought that every year, things would get better,” says Mrs Brende. But now: “The bubble has burst. I think my generation [will be] the last to see a great America.” Her husband agrees. Standards are falling in schools, he frets. Young people are finding it harder to get ahead. “We’ve all been so greedy for so long and it has caught up with us,” says Mrs Brende. She hopes that Mr Obama may be able to do something about the national malaise, but fears that “It’s too late. The slide is on.”
“年轻的时候我们总是很乐观。觉着一年会比一年好。”布兰迪夫人这样说道。但现在”泡沫已经破灭。我们这一代将是见证美国辉煌的最后一代。 “她的先生补充道。学校的水准正在下降，他感到很不安。年轻人发现取得成功越发困难。”长期以来我们所有人对（经济繁荣–译者注）都已习以为常，而现在却不如往日了。”布兰迪夫人说道。她希望奥巴马能改变这种弥漫全国的不安现象，但又害怕”为时已晚，回天乏术。”
Asked about their own lives, however, the Brendes are rather more cheerful. “We’re OK, financially,” says Mrs Brende. She is a travel writer; her husband is a doctor. They live half the year in Missouri and half in Mexico. They have 24 grandchildren and another on the way. Life could be a lot worse.
但谈到他们自己的生活，布兰迪夫妇倒是很开心。布兰迪太太说”我们的经济状况不错。”她是一位游记作家，先生是位医生。他们半年住在密苏里，半年住在墨西哥。家里有24个孙子孙女，还有就一个快要出生了。生活都还不错。
Regardless of their political beliefs, American voters are in a horrible mood this year. Democrats are sick of George Bush. Republicans are sick of the Democrats running Congress. Everyone worries about Iraq, either because they think the war should never have been fought, or because of the long, costly and thankless slog it has turned into. The latest violence in Afghanistan is depressing. The culture war[1] grinds on: America is slouching towards Gomorrah or theocracy[2], depending on your viewpoint. The earth is either cooking or being overrun by eco-fanatics. And the American economy is tottering.
不管各自的政治信仰主张如何，美国选民今年的心情都不怎么好。民主党人受够了布什。共和党人也受够了民主党主宰的议会。人人都担心伊拉克问题，原因或是有人认为本就不应该开战，或是有人认为战争久拖未决，代价巨大而又费力不讨好。阿富汗最近的暴力事件更是让人沮丧。文化战争[1]拖拖拉拉仍在继续：美国正在滑向罪恶之都还是走向神权国家[2]，怎么说都可以。”地球不是在制造着狂热的经济风潮，就是在忍受这股风潮四处泛滥。美国的经济正步履蹒跚。
The polls tell a dismal tale. Only 29% of Americans approve of the president. Only 14% approve of Congress. And just 6% view the economy positively. Yet many Americans combine despondency about the big picture with personal contentment. More than 80% say they are satisfied with their own circumstances. Even more are satisfied with their jobs. And although nearly everyone despises Congress, most Americans like their own representatives.
民调结果很是凄凉。只有区区29%的美国人对总统表示认可。对国会的认可度更是低至14%。认为经济状况良好的人只有6%。虽然美国大环境不景气，但美国人却表现出更多的个人满足。超过80%美国的人对自己的现状表示满意。对工作的满意度甚至更高。尽管几乎人人都对议会嗤之以鼻，但绝大多数人还是很喜欢本地区的代表。
How to reconcile these stark apparent contradictions? Some blame the media for overhyping gloomy news. Phil Gramm, a former senator from Texas and adviser to Mr McCain’s campaign, told the Washington Times that: “We have…become a nation of whiners. You just hear this constant whining, complaining about a loss of competitiveness, America in decline…Thank God the economy is not as bad as you read in the newspaper every day.”
如何调和这些鲜明的矛盾？一些人归咎于媒体夸大报道负面新闻。德克萨斯州前任议员，也是麦凯恩竞选前竞选顾问菲尔·格莱姆告诉《华盛顿时报》：”我们已然成为了一个悲情国家。啜泣不断，抱怨竞争力下降的声音不绝于耳，美国正在走下坡路。老天，经济并没有象每天报上写的那么遭。”
He had a point. American headlines are crammed with words like “failure”, “hurting” and “Fannie Mae[3]”. Foreign pundits sound even more bearish, and one sometimes detects a hint of gloating at the hyperpower’s distress. “The Great Depression,” thundered the front page of the Independent, a British newspaper, in April. The story underneath was about an increase in the demand for food stamps[4], after an effort to publicise their availability.
他说的不无道理。”失败，伤痛，范妮梅[3]” 等等字样充斥着美国报头。外国评论家更是火上浇油，甚至有些看超级大国笑话的意思。四月，英国”独立报”的头版”大萧条”字样格外醒目。下面的报道是关于粮票[4]需求增长，之前有人极力宣传粮票的用武之地。
Amity Shlaes, the author of a history of the Great Depression, thinks the comparison absurd. During the 1930s, she notes, “people lost their homes even though they had borrowed only 10% of the purchase price.” People losing their homes today often borrowed more than 90%. And today’s unemployment rate, though rising, is 5.5%. In the Great Depression, it peaked at 25%.
记录大萧条历史的作家，艾美蒂·希尔斯认为将现在比作”大萧条”时期很是荒唐。她指出，在上世纪30年代”人们的借款一旦超过购买价的10%就会无家可归。”而今只有借款超过90%的人才会流离失所。当下的失业率尽管在上升，但仅为5.5%。在大萧条时期，失业率曾高达25%。
Most Americans think their country is in a recession. But, buoyed by exports, output has yet to shrink for a single quarter. Mr Gramm suggested that his compatriots are suffering a “mental recession” rather than a real one. The McCain campaign tossed him under the Straight Talk Express, which was harsh but politically wise. For the figures miss an important point: consumers are facing a nasty squeeze, hit simultaneously by soaring costs for petrol, food and health care, tumbling house and share prices, tighter credit and flagging wages. Both candidates hear voters complaining about these things all the time. And since neither of them is a fool, both crack their cheeks trying to sound sympathetic.
绝大多数美国人认为美国在衰退。但由于出口拉动–至今为止还没有出现季度产量下滑的情况。在格莱姆先生看来美国人正经历着”精神衰退”而不是实际上的萧条。麦凯恩集团利用”直言快线”抛弃了他，有些冷酷，但却是明智的政治选择。因为统计数据没有反映出很重要的一点：消费者正面临着巨大压力，同时经受着高油价、高粮价、高医疗费用的考验，楼市、股市摇摇欲坠，信贷紧缩，工资缩水。两党的候选人一直都在倾听选民的上述抱怨。谁都不傻，都在顿足捶胸，恨不能表现得更富同情心。
Petrol prices, despite their recent retreat, hurt nearly everyone. Adam Julch, an enormous former college football star who is now a manager at a trucking firm in Omaha, Nebraska, complains that he had to trade in his pickup truck for a little Honda Civic. “I’m 350 pounds,” he says, “I feel like I’m in a clown car.”
油价尽管近期有所回落，但仍是几乎伤到了每个人。曾经的美国大学生橄榄球红星亚当·吉尔现在是内布拉斯加州奥马哈地区的一家货运公司经理。他抱怨说他不得不卖掉自己的敞篷小卡车，换一辆小型的本田思域。”我有350磅重。” “这让我感觉像是在个玩具车里。”
Soaring energy costs have sent the overall inflation rate to 5%-higher than it was in 1992, when angry voters threw out George Bush senior. Average hourly pay is falling in real terms. Meanwhile houses, most Americans’ biggest asset by far, are tumbling in value at a pace that exceeds that seen in, yes, the Great Depression. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of national house prices is down 16% from its peak, and judging by the overhang of unsold homes, has a lot further to fall. Asset deflation coupled with consumer-price inflation is a powerful recipe for political discontent.
节节攀升的能源价格已经导致总体通货膨胀率高达5%–高于92年的水平，当年愤怒的选民抛弃了老布什。除去通胀因素，小时平均工资在下降。与此同时，目前作为大多数美国人最大资产的房产价值却在以超过大萧条时期的幅度缩水。标准普尔全国住房价格指数相对峰值下挫了16%，考虑到还有大量待售房屋，价格指数将会有更大的下行空间。资产缩水加上消费价格膨胀正是促使政治不满强大诱因。
In Prince William County, Virginia, for example, house prices fell by 31% in the year to May and one home in 111 is in foreclosure. During the boom years, lenders offered mortgages to people with no cash for a deposit and no documents to prove a steady income, sighs a local real-estate agent. When these borrowers lost their jobs-and some were in the construction business, which has nosedived-many simply walked away from their homes.
举例而言，弗吉尼亚州的威廉王子郡的房价从年初到五月跌了31%，每111户中就有一户房产被没收。一位当地的房地产经纪人叹着气说道。效益好的年份，放待人都不会收取现金做抵押，借贷人也不用提供稳定收入证明。而当这些借贷人没了工作，其中一些正是从事严重下滑的建筑业，他们便一走了之。
Bankruptcies and bargains
绝境，生机
In the worst-hit neighbourhoods, such as Dale City, the foreclosure signs are everywhere. “People don’t want to buy round here because they see all these empty houses and wonder what’s wrong with the area,” says Ed Moore, an air force veteran who supports Mr McCain. “Things are going badly,” says John, who owns a struggling local construction business and supports Mr Obama but prefers not to advertise the fact to his clients.
在情况最为严重的地区，如德尔城，写着”没收”字样的牌子随处可见。一位支持麦凯恩的空军退伍老兵，摩尔说：”人们不会想来这儿买房子，因为他们看见这些空房子会不解，这儿究竟是怎么了。” “情况越来越不好。”约翰也这样说。他支持奥巴马，在当地拥有一家建筑公司，公司正在垂死挣扎，但他却不愿意向客户道出实情。
Both men are grumpy, but both reckon they will cope. Mr Moore’s home has lost much of its value, but since he plans to stay in it “till they put me six feet under”, he is not unduly bothered. John plans to quit construction, move to Texas and get into publishing. He is a college dropout, but reckons that “if you do some research, you can make a lot out of nothing” in America.
两个人对境况都颇有微词，但都表示他们会渡过难关。摩尔的房产价值缩水大半，但他仍决定留下，”直到我死在这儿”，这样想来也就无须多虑。约翰打算退出建筑业，搬到德克萨斯，进军出版业。他没念完大学，但相信 “在美国只要你做些功课，是可以找到出路的。”
Meanwhile, others see an opportunity in Dale City’s collapse. Jessica Lofiego, a mother of two, is scouring the neighbourhood for a bargain. At the height of the boom, she says, normal families couldn’t afford a nice place this close to Washington, DC. Now, she’s looking at a spacious 3-bedroom house that someone is trying to unload for $149,000.
与此同时，一些人却从德尔市的崩溃中看到了机会。一位名叫杰西卡·洛尔菲戈的两个孩子的母亲，正在社区里搜罗着超值房屋。她说，在楼市鼎盛的时候，在离华盛顿特区这么近的好地点的房子，一般家庭不可能负担得起。而今，她看好一个有3间宽敞卧室的房子，房主14万9千美元就打算脱手。
History suggests the housing slump will last for a while. A study of post-war housing busts by the IMF found that they typically last four years and involve a loss totalling 8% of a year’s output. Inflation, meanwhile, could slow if commodity prices stabilise. But given rapid, commodity-intensive growth in emerging economies, the underlying price shift-where American consumers spend relatively more of their income on food and fuel-is here to stay. Small wonder they are sour.
从历史经验看来，楼市低迷将持续一段时间。国际货币基金组织通过研究战后楼市情况发现萧条一般会持续四年，年损失达生产的8%。而如果商品价格稳定，通货膨胀可以减缓。但鉴于新兴经济体的商品密集型快速增长，基础价格就会随之攀升，美国人在食品、汽油上的相对花费会更多。难怪他们面无欢颜。
The malaise stems in considerable part from a feeling that individuals have become more vulnerable to forces beyond their control. The American can-do spirit is not dead, of course. Laid-off workers are finding new jobs, motorists are driving less and cooks are trawling the internet for recipes to jazz up the leftovers in the fridge.
不满情绪很大程度上是由于人们感到在外力面前越发无助。当然，美国的自强精神没有倒下。失业的人正在寻找新工作，开车的人越来越少，厨师们正在网上搜罗着处理冰箱里剩料的新点子。
But some shocks are hard to adjust to. The American suburban idyll of big homes and big gardens relied on cheap petrol. With gas prices high, many suburbanites yearn for a shorter commute. But they cannot quickly or easily sell their homes and start living in denser clusters with better public transport. Nor is it clear that they want to. So they suffer, and pray for petrol prices to fall. Sometimes literally: Rocky Twyman, a community organiser from Maryland, leads group prayers at petrol stations to beg for divine intervention.
但面对一些冲击美国人仍是难以适应。郊区那大房子、大花园的田园生活依赖的正是廉价汽油。油价上涨，许多市郊居民开始渴望短途通勤。但他们并不能迅速地把房子一卖了之，在交通更加便利的密集楼群中开始新生活。显然这也不是他们想要的。所以，这些人饱受煎熬，苦苦祈祷油价回落。毫不夸张，有时马里兰州的一个社区组织者洛基·德尔曼会带领一队人在加油站祈祷，请求神的帮助。
America’s costly but leaky health-care system aggravates several other problems. Soaring health-insurance premiums depress wages and prompt cash-strapped firms to stop covering their staff. The proportion of workers whose employers cover them fell from 65% in 2001 to 59% in 2007. And the fact that most Americans still get their health insurance through their job makes them much more worried about losing it. Unemployment may be low, but if it means your children lose their health cover, losing a job is scary.
美国的医保价格昂贵而又漏洞百出，这更加剧了其他问题。不断上涨的医疗保险金压低了薪水，迫使资金紧缺的公司纷纷停付。2007年由雇主支付的员工保险比例由65%下降到了59%。而事实上大多数依赖工作支付医疗保险的美国人更害怕的是失业。失业率可能还不算高，但如果这意味着孩子也将失去医疗保险，失业就显得面目狰狞了。
Opinion polls show unprecedented concerns about income distribution and economic mobility. Gallup finds that nearly seven out of ten Americans think wealth should be more evenly distributed, the highest fraction since the question was first asked in 1984. People are worried about inequality for good reason: real median household income has fallen since 1999, while labour’s share of the national pie has shrunk. The squeeze on labour could be cyclical: between 1997 and 2001, workers’ share of national income rose; now it is back where it was in 1997. But the earnings gap between the most-skilled workers and everyone else has been widening since the early 1980s. And in recent years the gains to the top have taken off while most people have stood still, or even fallen back, though the squeeze was partly mitigated by differing spending patterns (see article).
民意测验显示人们对收入分配、经济流动给予了空前的关注。盖洛普调查发现将近有70%的美国人认为财富分配应该更加均衡，这是自1984年该问题提出以来的最高比例。人们担心不平等是有充分根据的：自1999年以来，中产家庭收入减少，而劳动者所占有的财富份额也在减小。劳动者的窘境出现似乎有迹可循：97年到01年期间，劳动者所占的全民收入比例成上升之态，而现在又回到了97年的水平。但自80年代初起，高端技术工人和普通劳动者之间的收入差距就开始拉大。近几年，高层的收入激增，而大多数人的收入却没有什么变化，甚至还降低了。尽管通过改变消费习惯，困境已有所缓和。
Figures collated by Emmanuel Saez, an economist at Berkeley, make the point starkly. In the 1990s, the incomes of the richest 1% of taxpayers went up 10% a year in real terms (see chart), while those of the other 99% grew at an average annual rate of 2.4%. Between 2002 and 2006 the richest 1% saw 11% annual real income growth: everyone else got less than 1%. Three-quarters of the gains from the Bush expansion went to 1% of taxpayers, who now receive a larger share of overall income than at any time since the 1920s.
伯克利的经济学家以马力·萨尔兹得出的数据更清晰地阐明了收入差距问题。上世纪90年代，最富有的1%纳税人年均资产收益为10%，而其他的99%的年均资产收益为2.4%。2002至2006年，最富有的1%资产年均收益达到了11%，而其他人的还不足1%。布什扩张性财政政策利益的四分之三流向了最富有的1%人群，这些人的总收入为上世纪20年代以来最高。
Technology is probably the main culprit, but Americans prefer to blame trade. The latest Pew Research Centre survey of global attitudes found that only 53% of Americans think trade is good for their country, down from 78% in 2002 and lower than in any of the other 23 countries included in the survey.
技术进步很可能是罪魁祸首，但美国人更愿意归咎于贸易。Pew研究中心全球调查显示只有53%的美国人认为贸易对本国有利，而2002年这一数据为78%，这一数字也低于全部其它23个被调查国家。
The depth of gloom varies by age. The baby-boom generation (people aged 43-62) are glummer than the young or the elderly, according to Pew. Some 55% of boomers think it unlikely that their income will keep pace with the cost of living in the next year, compared with 44% of 18-42-year-olds and 43% of those aged 63 or more. Many boomers look after children and crumbling parents simultaneously.
年龄不同，心情忧郁的程度也不同。据Pew调查，与年轻人以及年纪更大的人相比婴儿潮一代（年龄在43-62之间）更为忧愁。有将近55%的这一代人认为来年将会入不敷出，在18-42年龄组这一数字为 44%，而在63岁以上年龄组为43%。许多婴儿潮一代正是处于上有老下有小境地。
Americans have grown accustomed to extraordinary prosperity. Poor Americans today are more likely to have fridges, dishwashers and air-conditioning than average Americans were in 1971. Young voters have no memory of a serious recession, since the last one was in the early 1990s. Some do not even realise that cyclical downturns are normal. Only 18% of Americans think they are worse off than their parents were at the same age. But elections hinge on shorter-term concerns. Four-fifths of Americans say it is harder to maintain a middle-class lifestyle now than it was five years ago. That probably means the election is Mr Obama’s to lose.
美国人早已习惯了富裕奢侈。今天就算是穷人也会有电冰箱、洗碗机、空调，而在1971年普通美国人还不一定拥有这些。年轻选民对严重萧条没有记忆，因为上次发生衰退是早在上世纪90年代初。一些人甚至没有意识到周期性的衰退实属正常。仅有18%的美国人认为自己没有父母年轻时活得好。但选举却取决于短期关切。80%的美国人认为同五年前相比，现在要维持中产生活更加困难了。这很可能意味着奥巴马将面临失败。
[1]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Culture_war
[2]http://forums.jlconline.com/forums/showthread.php?t=43910
[3]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fannie_Mae
[4]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Food_stamps
译者：eirrac http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=12908&pid=81611&page=1&extra=page%3D1#pid81611