Australian finance
澳洲金融
Down under
澳大利亚，危机之下
Jul 24th 2008 | PERTH
From The Economist print edition
The air goes out of one of the last remaining booms
最后一丝残存的繁荣气息也没了
IN THE early 1990s the mining town of Newman in Western Australia was in a deep slump. Its population had dwindled to 3,000 from a peak of 15,000 in the 1970s. Thanks to extraordinary demand (and prices) for commodities, primarily from China, migration has since been reversed. The population is nearing 11,000 and no tour of the local streets is complete without pausing at a home that was recently sold for A$800,000 ($770,000), having fetched A$80,000 just a few years ago.
上个世纪90年代早期，西澳大利亚因矿而生的小镇纽曼陷入深深地衰落中。人口数量从70年代的巅峰时期15000人下降到3000人。但在最近，对这些矿石等大宗商品的庞大需求（主要来自中国），移民数量又开始增加了。现在人口数量已经接近11000，并且如果到当地旅行就一定要看看那些房子：它们最近被卖到 800,000澳元（约合770,000美元），而在几年前只有80,000澳元。
The region is still thirsting for people. There are acute shortages of diesel-engine mechanics and electricians, as well as cooks and even jackaroos (cowboys). Lorry drivers can earn in excess of A$120,000 a year, plus benefits and vacations. Bringing in more people is tough because the waiting list for the kind of manufactured homes that can be brought in on trailers-the fastest solution to a housing shortage-is more than a year.
西澳现在仍然需要大量的人力。其中最急缺的就是柴油机械师和电工，当然厨师和一些新手也一样很需要。卡车司机在这儿一年可以赚到120,000澳元以上，此外还有津贴和带薪假期。但是引进更多人又是非常困难的，因为等待活动板房(解决住房短缺的最快途径)的名单已经排到了一年多之后。
Commercial space is in short supply too. Bankers and mining companies have piled into Perth, the financial capital of Western Australia. Rents can exceed those in New York and London, if property is available at all. UBS, a Swiss bank, is working out of a temporary service office.
商业区域同样短缺。大量银行和矿业公司纷纷拥入佩斯–西澳的金融首府。如果房地产可以充分发展，租金甚至可以超过纽约和伦敦。瑞士联合银行目前正在当地筹建临时服务办事处。
But even in Australia, a country with economic growth, rising corporate profits and stable home prices, there is growing financial distress. Mortgage credit will expand by less than 10% for the first time in 40 years in 2008, reckons Craig Williams, an analyst with Citigroup. The Australian stockmarket is down by 26% since its peak in November. Banks have been hit harder still, although they are not nearly as ravaged as those in America and Europe.
即使在经济不断增长、公司利润和房价稳定上升的澳大利亚，金融萧条仍不断发展中。花旗集团分析师Craig Williams 预计，08年澳大利亚抵押贷款将会出现40多年来首次低于10%的增长。澳大利亚股票市场的市值也已从去年11月最高峰跌去了26%。次贷对澳银行的打击仍然巨大，尽管不能和美国、欧洲银行所受损失相比。
In part, the problems are a result of Australia’s split economy. The mining boom has produced wealth in the west while pushing up the Australian dollar, thus undermining the competitiveness of manufacturers in the more populated east. In part, the problems are also a product of a country with a low savings rate whose banks and financial institutions have relied on foreign sources for half of their funding. Thanks to the capital crises in America and Europe, credit is now much tighter. Collectively, these two forces are reshaping Australia’s financial sector.
这些问题一方面是由于澳大利亚经济分化造成的。西部矿业的繁荣产生了大量财富，但与此同时推高了澳元，而这又削弱了更多东部制造业的竞争力。另一方面，澳大利亚的低储蓄率使得澳大利亚银行和金融机构一半的资金依赖于国外。再加之美国和欧洲的金融危机，银行信贷就更加紧缩。这两种力量正一起重塑澳大利亚的金融部门。
First in the firing-line has been a series of debt-laden financial and real-estate companies. Centro Properties, an acquisitive mall operator, blew up last December. Others are sweating through brutal negotiations with lenders. Allco Finance Group managed to negotiate a loan extension with its bankers on July 1st in return for higher interest charges and a promise to cut its debt. Babcock & Brown, which manages a string of leveraged infrastructure funds, has also had to accept higher interest rates in order to stave off nervous creditors (although it was helped on July 23rd by a solid set of results from Macquarie, a bank with a similar business model).
在这之中，首当其冲的是那些负债累累的金融和房地产公司。购物中心运营商Centro Properties已于去年12月破产。其它一些公司在艰难地和债权人谈判，日子并不好过。7月1日，Allco金融集团设法同银行达成了贷款展期，但作为回报，Allco必须支付更高的利息，并承诺减少债务。Babcock & Brown也成功的获得了一系列杠杆基础设施基金，不过为了打发那些令人不安的债权人，它同样也不得不接受更高的利息（尽管在7月23日受到了来自麦格理银行一组可靠的利好消息的帮助，麦格理银行与其具有相似的业务模式。）
The banks themselves are also under pressure. Adelaide Bank, which was heavily reliant on wholesale funding, was purchased last year for A$4 billion by Bendigo Bank, which is funded mainly by retail deposits. The proposed A$19 billion acquisition of St George’s, the country’s fifth-largest bank, by Westpac, its third-largest, partly rests on Westpac’s claim that it can fund itself more cheaply.
银行本身也处在压力之下。过分依赖大额融资的阿德莱德银行去年被Bendigo银行以40亿澳元的价格收购，而Bendigo银行则以小额零售存款业务为主。澳大利亚第五大银行St George被提议以190亿澳元出售给Westpac银行（澳第三大银行），其中部分原因就是Westpac银行承诺可以给他提供成本较低的资金。
Even the miners are not immune. In 2000 there were only three companies producing iron ore in Western Australia, says an executive at one of the mining giants. With prices surging and resources in the Pilbara region abundant, by late last year 95 had announced production plans. The oxygen of capital has now thinned dramatically for the newcomers.
即使采矿业也不能幸免。一家矿业巨头的管理人员表示，2000年时西澳只有三家铁矿石企业。但由于矿石价格的飙升，加之皮尔巴拉地区丰富的资源储量，到去年底已经有95家企业宣布了生产计划。所以那些有限的资本就被新进入者大大”稀释”了。
Mining companies tapped stockmarkets regularly in 2007, often raising just enough money to pay for a limited period of exploration and drilling. This year the market for initial public offerings has collapsed (see chart). If the financial spigot does not open again, most of the new entrants will disappear. That is not all bad. Tightening credit and a more discriminating equity market may be accomplishing what no business would do on its own: tamping down on supply to moderate the prospect of a future bust. Would that lenders everywhere had done the same.
矿业公司在2007年时都很好地利用了证券市场，他们募集到了支付勘探开采矿山一定期限所需要的足够多现金。而今年证券市场上新股公开发行已经瘫痪。如果金融” 水龙头”不再度开启，大部分新进入者将会消失。而这并不是所有最坏的。紧缩的信贷和更加分化的产权投资市场也许会形成，没有任何生意可以单独完成：只有夯实供给才能调整对于未来的预期前景。任何地方的债权人所能做的都是一样的。
译者：jyjnl http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=12941&extra=page%3D1