Colombia
哥伦比亚
Gracias and Good Night
谢谢，晚安
Jul 3rd 2008
From The Economist print edition
Despite his coup in freeing Ingrid Betancourt, álvaro Uribe should not seek a third term
虽然他让贝当古重获自由，但乌里韦不应该妄图梅开三度
ONLY those blinded by ideology would deny that álvaro Uribe has made Colombia a better place. By expanding the security forces and leading them tirelessly, Mr Uribe, who was first elected president in 2002, has imposed the authority of the democratic state across most of a previously lawless country. He persuaded thousands of right-wing paramilitaries to disarm, and has inflicted probably mortal blows on the FARC guerrillas. The latest of these was the dramatic liberation this week of the FARC’s most-prized hostages, including Ingrid Betancourt, a politician of Colombian and French nationality kidnapped six years ago, and three American defence contractors (see article). Murders have almost halved since 2002; kidnappings have fallen much more. A safer country is prospering economically, as confidence returns.
只有那些被意识形态蒙蔽了双眼的人，才会否认乌里韦改善了哥伦比亚的状况。乌里韦先生最初在2002年被选为总统，通过扩充并孜孜不倦地率领安全部队，他在这个国家的大部分地区树立起了民主政权的权威，而此前这些地方都目无法纪。他说服了成千上万的右翼准军事组织解除武装，并给FARC（哥伦比亚革命武装力量）的游击队施加了几乎致命的打击。他最新的行动是让FARC最有价值的人质在本周戏剧般地获释，其中包括贝当古（六年前被绑架的哥、法双籍政治家）和三名美国军需商。此外，自2002年以来，凶杀案几乎减半，绑架案也骤减。随着信心的重拾，这个更安全的国家在经济上也在蓬勃发展。
This record has won Mr Uribe his people’s gratitude (opinion polls give him an approval rating of 80%) and in 2006 a second term-after he persuaded Congress to lift a constitutional ban on consecutive presidential terms, and the courts to ratify the change. But now this second term is unexpectedly in question. On June 26th the Supreme Court found that a former legislator cast a deciding committee vote for the re-election amendment only after two ministers had promised government jobs to some of her supporters. The justices have asked the Constitutional Court to rule on the legality of the constitutional change and thus of the 2006 election.
这些良好的记录为乌里韦先生赢得了民众的感激（民意调查支持率达80%），也为他在2006年赢得了连任–在他说服国会取消禁止总统连任的宪法条款，并说服法院批准这一修改后。然而，这第2个任期如今却出乎意料地受到了质疑。6月26日，最高法院发现，一个前立法委员要求两个部长为她的支持者在政府中谋得公职，以此换取她在修订再次选举总统的条款上投出决定性的一票。法官已经请求宪法法院就上述修宪和由此带来的2006年总统选举的合法性做出裁决。
Mr Uribe’s reaction was characteristically combative. He asked Congress to call a referendum on the legitimacy of his term. He claims that the courts are pursuing a political vendetta. He has a point: reprehensible though it is, patronage politics is routine in Colombia and much of the democratic world. To deduce that in this case it invalidates the election is disproportionate-as the Constitutional Court may well conclude.
乌里韦先生对此勃然大怒。他要求国会就他连任的合法性进行全民公投。他声称法院在挑起政治仇恨。他有自己的理由：主仆政治(Patronage Plitics)虽然不招人待见，但在哥伦比亚和民主世界的许多地区司空见惯。如果将乌里韦先生的观点推导至这件事上，裁定2006年选举无效（宪法法院很可能做出这样的裁定）是不合时宜的。
But the president’s referendum idea is equally cock-eyed. He seems determined to battle the courts, rather than respect them. Worse, although he has denied this, the referendum suggests to many a step towards prolonging his rule beyond 2010. He has allowed supporters to gather signatures for a (separate) referendum to change the constitution again to allow him a third term. This would give him time to finish off the FARC and complete his rescue of Colombia, supporters say.
然而，总统先生关于公投的主意同样不合时宜。他似乎执意要与法院作对，而不是尊重法院。更糟的是，对于许多人来说，全民公投意味着朝延长他的统治至 2010年之后又迈进了一步（虽然他对此矢口否认）。他已经允许他的支持者收集签名，要求举行公投，从而再次修宪，使他梅开三度。他的支持者说，这样可以给他充足的时间，铲除FARC，完成他对哥伦比亚的拯救大业。
He deserves a full second term-but no more
他应该完成现在的任期，不过仅此而已
Tempting though such a prospect might seem, a third term would be disastrous for Colombia. Mr Uribe is not without flaws. Worryingly, given his feud with the judiciary, judges nominated by him will form a majority in the Constitutional Court by next year. His shoot-from-the-hip manner has made him many enemies abroad, including in America’s Democratic Party. He may be welcoming John McCain to Colombia this week, but it is Barack Obama who is ahead in the opinion polls and the Democrats control Congress (where they are disgracefully blocking a trade agreement with Colombia mainly because of their distaste for Mr Uribe). A different Colombian president might also carry out the agrarian reform-settling people displaced by violence on land confiscated from warlords-that Colombia needs and Mr Uribe eschews.
这样的前景虽然看起来很诱人，不过让他再度连任将是哥伦比亚的灾难。乌里韦先生可不是完美无瑕。令人担忧的是，他与司法部素来不和，而他提名的法官到明年将在宪法法院中占据多数席位。他唐突鲁莽的作风让他在海外树敌颇多，其中包括美国民主党。本周，他可能在哥伦比亚迎接麦凯恩（共和党候选人）的到来，然而在美国，民意调查中靠前的可是奥巴马，控制国会的也是民主党。美国国会很不体面地否决了与哥伦比亚的自由贸易协定，主要原因就是不喜欢乌里韦先生。此外，换一个总统还可能完成土地改革，将因暴力而流离失所的人们安置在从军阀那里没收来的土地上。哥伦比亚需要这项改革，而乌里韦先生避之唯恐不及。
Most importantly, Colombia’s transformation will remain fragile as long as it is the work of one man. To be complete, it needs to be institutionalised. There are several plausible successors who would maintain Mr Uribe’s security policies. Rather than a plebiscitarian strongman, in the mould of Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez or Peru’s Alberto Fujimori, Colombia needs strengthened democratic institutions. The greatest service Mr Uribe could do his country is to depart in 2010.
最重要的是，仅凭一己之力，哥伦比亚的改革将非常脆弱。要完成改革，需要制度化。有好几个貌似可信的继任者都乐意继续乌里韦的安全政策。哥伦比亚需要的，不是像委内瑞拉的查韦斯或秘鲁的藤森这样的公投强人，而是强化的民主体制。乌里韦先生能给他的祖国做的最大的贡献，就是在2010年任期满后卸任离去。
译者：misser http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=12538&pid=78838&page=1&extra=page%3D1#pid78838