America’s election
美国大选
Half-way there
下半场拉开帷幕
Feb 7th 2008
From The Economist print edition
The Republicans, at least, seem to have found a decent candidate
看来共和党已经找到了一位体面的候选人
Illustration by Kevin Kallaugher
WINSTON CHURCHILL, that famous half-American, once said that his mother’s countrymen could always be counted on to do the right thing, after exhausting the available alternatives. His words would apply well to the Republican Party just now. Having lengthily lionised “America’s mayor”, Rudy Giuliani, looked longingly at Reagan-lite Fred Thompson, flirted with millionaire Mitt Romney and sung along with preacherman Mike Huckabee, the party’s voters have sensibly plumped for John McCain, the only Republican whom pollsters give a chance of keeping the White House out of Democratic hands (see article). It is possible—just—to imagine Mr McCain failing to carry the nomination after Super Tuesday, which saw him win three times as many delegates as his nearest rival, Mr Romney, who suspended his campaign. But that would now require spectacular intervention by the Almighty on behalf of the admittedly pious Mr Huckabee.
声名显赫的温斯顿•丘吉尔拥有一半美国血统，在谈到母亲的同胞时，他曾作出如下评论：美国人在试遍各种可供选择的方案后，一定会做出正确的决定。如今的共和党恰恰印证了这句话。他们先是将鲁迪•朱利安尼奉为“美国的市长”，称道之声，不绝于耳；后又对佛莱德•汤普森寄予厚望，希望他继承里根总统的衣钵；忽而垂青于百万富翁米特•罗姆尼；忽而与传教士迈克•赫卡比放声高歌；但最后，共和党的选民终于理智地选择了党内唯一有望与民主党人争夺总统宝座的候选人：约翰•麦凯恩。在刚刚结束的超级星期二预选中，麦凯恩赢得的代表人数是紧随其后的米特•罗姆尼三倍之多，后者现已宣布退出竞选。虽然麦凯恩代表共和党角逐总统大选尚未成为定局，但要从他手中夺走党内提名，除非万能之主出手相助无比虔诚的赫卡比先生。
Given George Bush’s failings, the Republicans face an uphill challenge, but they have given themselves a chance. Mr McCain is a man of courage. He showed it in Vietnam, while Mr Bush and Bill Clinton found themselves other occupations; as a prisoner-of-war, he refused to be released without his comrades even though he had already been tortured for a year, so earning four more years of agony. He has been brave politically, too. It takes an exceptional individual to court the hatred of his own party rather than compromise on issues he believes in, such as the need for immigration reform, the wrongness of torture under any circumstances or the need to tackle global warming. Should Mr McCain become president, the world will see an American with different views from those it has sadly learned to expect from Republicans recently.
由于乔治•布什治国无方，共和党在这场角逐中可谓占尽下风，但他们现在终于有了一线希望。麦凯恩此人以勇敢著称。早在越战时，他就在战场上证明了自己的勇气，而当时的布什先生和比尔•克林顿都因故未能参战。成为战俘的他，受尽敌人折磨，但一年后敌人释放他时，却遭到他断然拒绝，他要和战友们一起出去，为此，他又在战俘营中经受了四年的酷刑。在政治上，他同样敢做敢为。他认准的事情，绝对不妥协。他支持改革移民政策；抨击酷刑，指出在任何情况下都不应严刑拷打；他呼吁应对全球变暖；即使自己的强硬立场引起自己所在党派的仇视他也在所不惜，要做到这一点实属不易。如果麦凯恩先生当选美国总统，全世界一定会对共和党刮目相看。
Those atypical positions, and his willingness to team up with Democrats in the Senate, may have earned Mr McCain the support of many of the independent voters who will be crucial to Republican chances in the general election. But it would be wrong to think the senator from Arizona is simply pandering to them. On a host of other issues, he has risked alienating the centre. He is a passionate believer in free trade (which endears him to this newspaper, at least), and he was a supporter of the “surge” in Iraq when all Democrats, most independents and a fair few Republicans thought the best thing to do was for America to leave. Some of these beliefs, alas, will surely hurt him, but it is much to his credit that when advisers urged him to moderate them he angrily refused.
麦凯恩不仅在政治立场上卓而不群，他还愿意在参议院与民主党合作，这令他得到很多独立选民的支持，而这些独立选民在大选中对共和党是否能够获胜起着至关重要的作用。但是这位亚利桑那州议员这么做并不是为了讨好这些无党派选民。在许多其他问题上，他的立场很可能疏远这些中间派。他不遗余力地支持自由贸易（这一立场至少让本报对他颇为赞赏），当所有民主党人，多数独立无党派人士，和不少共和党人都认为美国应该撤出伊拉克时，他却支持“增兵”。他的一些主张无疑会对他不利，但他还是断然拒绝幕僚提出的走稳和路线的建议，就这点来而言，确实难能可贵。
A few chinks in the armour
Mr McCain is certainly the right man for the Republicans, but we are not yet ready to endorse him for the presidency. His age is one drawback: at 72, he will, if elected, be the oldest president ever to take office (though Ronald Reagan was older when he was re-elected in 1984). His health has not been perfect—though his 96-year-old mother looks reassuringly sprightly—and his choice of a running-mate is therefore a subject of more than the usual concern. One danger is that he might feel constrained to select Mr Huckabee, who won five southern states this week and appeals to the evangelical Christians who mistrust Mr McCain. Likeable though he is, Mr Huckabee is tainted by an anti-business strain of populism and a literalist faith that sometimes blinds him to basic science. The possibility of a Huckabee presidency would give many independent voters (and this newspaper) pause.
麦凯恩先生无疑是共和党的最佳人选，但拥护他登上总统宝座仍为时过早。年龄是一个问题：他已经72岁了。若能当选，他将是美国历史上最年长的总统（虽然里根在1984年获得连任时比他大几岁）。他的健康状况也令人担忧，尽管他96岁的母亲看上去非常健朗。最令他头痛的是副手人选。他可能迫于形势压力与赫卡比搭档，本周赫卡比赢得了南方五州，在基督教福音派选民中享有很高的支持率，而这他们正是那些不信任麦凯恩的选民。尽管赫卡比人气颇旺，他却是个反对商业的民粹主义者，而且他的宗教信仰过于死板，以至于否认一些基本的科学常识。如果要让赫卡比担任副总统的话，相信很多选民（包括本报）都会重新考虑是否要将选票投给麦凯恩。 Mr McCain’s other problem is his temperament. He has not been mellowed by having had to run a state—a shortcoming he shares with his Democratic rivals, but still a disadvantage. The flip-side of his courage is a short temper. There have been too many blow-ups with fellow senators. At a time when America needs to rebuild its relationship with the rest of the world, a prickly patriot who supported the Iraq war (though he was the first to call for Donald Rumsfeld’s head after things started to go wrong) and who has been known to sing “Bomb, bomb, bomb; bomb, bomb Iran” to the tune of “Barbara Ann” could be improved on from a diplomatic point of view.
麦凯恩先生的另一个问题就是他暴躁的脾气。他没担任过州长，因此缺少一定的政治手腕，尽管两位民主党候选人也没有担任过州长，但相比之下，这仍是麦凯恩的劣势。在他敢做敢的个性背后，正是他那暴躁的脾气。他曾多次对其他参议员大发雷霆。当下正值美国需要与世界各国重建友好关系之际，这位棱角分明的爱国者一面支持伊拉克战争（尽管在出现问题后使他第一个向拉姆斯菲尔德兴师问罪的），一面唱着麦凯恩版的“芭芭啦 安：“轰炸，轰炸，轰炸，轰炸，轰炸伊朗”，从外交的角度来讲他是该改改了。Don’t give up on the Democrats
So a Democrat may yet impress us more, but first they must put their own house in order. Luckily for Mr McCain, that will be a while coming—and in the meantime he can start raising money for the general-election campaign. Most analysts argue that Barack Obama would have a better chance against Mr McCain than Hillary Clinton would. The young black senator is better at appealing to the centrist voters who like Mr McCain; and the prospect of another Clinton co-presidency would do much to compel Republican right-wingers to get behind a man they think is not a true conservative.
这么看来，还是民主党候选人更有希望，不过他们得先把自己的党内问题处理好。麦凯恩暂时不必担心这个问题，他现在已经可以开始为大选筹集资金了。不少分析人士认为奥巴马比希拉里更有希望打败麦凯恩。这位年轻的黑人参议员更善于获得从麦凯恩手中争取到中间派选民的支持；而且克林顿夫妇联合执政的前景也会迫使右翼共和党人团结一致，支持那位原本在他们心目中算不上是真正的保守派的候选人。
That calculation ought to help Mr Obama in the weeks to come after a Super Tuesday that was, on the Democratic side, a dead heat. Another 22 states, including big ones like Texas and Ohio, have still to vote in primaries, and half the delegates have yet to be chosen. Mr Obama will also gain an edge from the return to a battle that is fought state by state, since this plays to his superior abilities at firing up big crowds. But the formidable Clinton machine grinds on, and the fact that she won in most of the big states that were up for grabs on Super Tuesday has buoyed her team no end. Mrs Clinton’s solid support among Hispanics will help a lot in Texas, though at the cost of keeping race as a live, and nasty, issue on the hustings. On the other hand, this week Mr Obama won in more states and may have secured one or two more delegates as well, so he can make a strong claim to have superior momentum.
这么看来，奥巴马将在超级星期二的平局后超过希拉里。包括得克萨斯，俄亥俄等大州在内的22个州尚未举行初选，而且还有一半代表尚未选出。而当选举回到一个州一个州的争夺时，奥巴马善于煽动选民热情的优势又体现出来了。不过，强大的克林顿机器没有停止运转，赢得超级星期二多数大州的胜利让她的团队士气高涨。拉丁裔选民的坚定支持也将在德克萨斯发挥重要作用，当然会使种族问题这一麻烦再次主导两人的竞选演说。不过，奥巴马本周赢得的州在数量上超过希拉里，而且他还可能多得一两个代表名额，可以说，奥巴马现在依然势头强劲。
The fight will be long and mucky, but the Democrats may yet emerge sharpened by the contest. Both Mrs Clinton and Mr Obama have the necessary attributes to take on Mr McCain: they are two formidable campaigners who have offered detailed and generally intelligent policy proposals and have been forced to work exceptionally hard for their votes.
这场厮杀还会旷日持久地打下去，但这也给民主党人更多历练的机会。克林顿夫人和奥巴马先生都有各自的杀手锏来对付麦凯恩先生：他们两人实力雄厚，施政纲领具体且颇为英明，而且他们迫于形势的压力不得不更加卖力，以争取选民的支持。
So Mr McCain is still no more than half-way to the White House. But the fact that the Republicans seem to have learnt from their mistakes enough to line up behind a credible candidate augurs well for their country—and for the world.
因此，麦凯恩先生要入主白宫还有很长的路要走。不过，共和党人终于能够吸取教训，团结在一个值得信赖的候选人周围，这对美国乃至世界来说，都是一件好事。
“[2008.02.07] half-way there”的2个回复