[2008.4.17]The ravening hoards 贪婪的囤积

China’s grain supply
中国的粮食供应

The ravening hoards
贪婪的囤积
Apr 17th 2008 | BEIJING
From The Economist print edition
英国《经济学人》4月17日文章
No need for alarm; but some Chinese ring bells anyway
虽然无需发出警告，但是一些中国人还是敲响了警钟

“WITH grain in our hands there is no need to panic,” according to China’s prime minister, Wen Jiabao. But officials worry about how to keep China near self-sufficiency in grain and sheltered from rising world prices. Mr. Wen’s remarks during a farm tour in Hebei in the north were meant to calm public anxieties about food-price inflation elsewhere in the world. Chinese food prices have been rising fast too in recent months, but the main impact has been on meat. Rice- and wheat-price increases have been modest, except for high-quality imports, a small share of domestic consumption. China produces more than 90% of the grain it consumes.
“手中有粮，心中不慌。”中国总理温家宝如是说。但是官员们担心如何使中国继续保持粮食的自给自足，同时防止它受到世界粮食市场涨价的影响。温总理在视察河北省农田时说的这番话意在平息民众对于世界其他地区食品价格暴涨的忧虑。近几个月来，中国的食品价格也在飞速上扬，但是主要的涨价压力在于肉类。除了优质的进口粮食，大米和小麦价格的上涨幅度不大，而进口粮食在中国国内消费中占据着很小的份额：在中国消费的粮食中，超过９０％源自国内生产。

With global grain markets so jittery, officials are rather smug about having so long stressed the need for self-sufficiency. It has enabled the government to keep the domestic market relatively calm. Early this year, to control demand, it began curbing grain exports through quotas and taxes. It promised continuing supplies to Hong Kong. But now grain importers there have had to pledge that they will not re-export. Diplomats say that China’s caution has even affected the flow of food to North Korea, an old ally heavily reliant on shipments from abroad. Aid workers say North Korea is facing its worst food-supply crisis since a famine in the late 1990s.
看到全球粮食市场如此动荡不安，中国官员们颇为自己长期以来强调粮食自足的必要性而自得，这使得政府得以保持国内市场相对平稳。年初，为了控制需求，政府开始通过配额和税收来限制粮食出口。它承诺继续向香港提供粮食。但是，粮食进口商如今不得不作出保证，不会把进口的粮食再出口。外交官说，中国在这方面的谨慎态度甚至影响到了对朝鲜的粮食运输——中国的这个老盟友严重依赖进口物资。救援人员说，朝鲜正面临着上世纪９０年代后期那次饥荒以来最严重的食品供给危机。

Mr Wen offered reassurances that China has no shortage. When output fell in 2003, the government renewed efforts to encourage grain production (see chart). They entailed big increases in subsidies for grain farmers and in the state’s guaranteed minimum purchase price for grain. Much else has also been done to raise farmers’ living standards, from tax exemption to free education. This year’s centralgovernment spending on rural development including education, welfare and subsidies is due to grow by 30% to nearly $80 billion.
温总理让人们放心，中国不存在粮食短缺问题。当粮食产量２００３年出现下滑的时候，政府为了促进粮食生产做了不同以往的努力。政府大幅增加了对种植粮食的农民的补贴，并且提高了国家保证的粮食最低收购价格。为了提高农民的生活水平，他们还做了其他许多努力——从免除农业税到免费义务教育。今年，中央政府在包括教育、福利和补贴等在内的农村发展方面的支出预计会增长３０％，达到近８００亿美元的水平。

Last month Mr Wen even revealed what had been a state secret: that China had grain reserves of 150m-200m tonnes, equal to 30-40% of annual production. Officials note that China’s ratio of reserves to consumption is much higher than the 17-18% level regarded by the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organisation as a safe minimum for global stocks.
温总理上个月甚至透露了以前曾是国家机密的粮食储备数据：中国拥有１５到２０亿吨粮食储备，相当于粮食年产量的３０％到４０％。官员们强调，中国的粮食储备率远高于联合国粮农组织提出的１７％到１８％的全球粮食库存最低安全线的水平。

But not everyone is convinced. Reports in the state-controlled
press say that some people in Guangdong province, next to Hong
Kong, have been stockpiling grain. In March a senior agriculturalist, Yuan Longping, accused officials in some areas of exaggerating the size of grain reserves in order to get more subsidies for storing them. A commentator in the China Daily said export curbs would encourage smuggling. Others worry that the harsh winter in the south and spring drought in the north might dent output growth this year; and rising prices of fertiliser and other inputs could deter farmers from growing grain.
但是，并非人人都对此确信无疑。国家控制的新闻媒体报道说，有些人在临近香港的广东省囤积粮食。资深农业学家袁隆平在３月份曾经谴责一些地方官员虚报粮食储备数量，以此来获得更多的粮食储备补贴。《中国日报》的一位评论员说，限制出口会鼓励走私。一些人担心，南方地区的严冬和北方的春旱可能减缓今年的粮食产量增长，而化肥和其他农资产品价格上涨可能使农民不再种植粮食。

Officials acknowledge that maintaining near self-sufficiency in grain will become harder as the population grows and arable land shrinks. In 2006 the government said that the minimum amount of arable land needed to protect “grain security” was 120m hectares. At that time it was already giving warning that China was approaching the “red line”, with about 121.8m hectares available. For local governments building on arable land is often a money-spinner. Central-government efforts to curb this have not worked. Some Chinese commentators say the line has already been crossed: some land registered as arable is in fact being used for non-agricultural purposes.
中国官员承认，随着人口增长和耕地减少，保持粮食基本自足将变得越发艰难。政府在２００６年表示，要保护“粮食安全”，最少耕地面积需要１２亿公顷。政府那时候就已经发出警告，说中国正在逼近这条“红线”：当时的可耕地面积大约是１２.１８亿公顷。因为地方政府经常通过在耕地上建房来生财，中央政府限制占用耕地的努力并未奏效。中国的一些评论员说，这条线早就被越过了：一些土地虽然登记为耕地，但实际上被用作非农业用途。

There has long been debate in China over whether the country’s grain policy, which calls for 95% selfsufficiency, is too conservative given the potential for imports. On grain, however, conservative thinking
is now back in vogue.（Enditem）
中国在国家粮食政策问题方面长期存在争论：国家政策呼吁要有９５％的粮食实现自足。鉴于进口的潜力，这项政策过于保守了。然而，在粮食问题上，保守的想法如今又流行了起来。

 

 

译者/gaofeiwo: http://www.ecocn.org/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=10684&highlight=