[2008.05.31]Rewired 中国电信:重组

Telecoms in China
中国电信业
Rewired
重组

May 29th 2008 | HONG KONG
From The Economist print  edition
2008年5月29日，驻香港通讯员报道
原载《经济学人》印刷版

The long-awaited reorganisation of China’s vast telecoms industry begins
期待已久的中国规模庞大的电信业重组拉开了序幕

BY ANY measure—revenues, employees, customers—it is the largest industrial reorganisation ever. And, reflecting how business is done in China, it was announced in the most modest way, with a posting on a government website on May 24th. The country’s telecoms industry, with nearly 600m mobile subscribers, 360m fixed-line customers and $244 billion in revenue, will be reconfigured. Six companies will be collapsed into three, each spanning mobile, fixed and broadband services.
无论以何种角度来衡量——营业收入、雇员总数、客户数——这都将是规模空前的行业重组。重组以一种非常低调的方式——由5月24日政府网站的消息——来宣布，这也是中国的商业运行模式的一种写照。拥有将近6亿的移动用户，3.6亿的固定电话用户以及总营业额达2440亿的中国电信业将会被重新配置。六个运营商将会被整合为三家，调整之后每家都有移动通讯，固定电话和宽带全业务牌照。 China Mobile, the world’s largest mobile operator by subscribers, will merge with China TieTong, the smallest fixed-line operator. China Telecom, the country’s biggest fixed-line operator, will acquire one of the mobile networks run by China Unicom, which will merge its remaining mobile operations with China Netcom, another fixed-line operator. A sixth operator, China Satcom, will be taken over by China Telecom.
中国移动——拥有世界最多用户的移动运营商——将会吞并最小的固话运营商中国铁通。中国最大的固话运营商中国电信将会获得中国联通的一个移动网络。而中国联通剩下的移动网络将会与中国另一家固话运营商中国网通合并。第六家运营商——中国卫通将会被中国电信收购。

The reorganisation had been expected for years, but rumours of an imminent decision swept the Hong Kong and Shanghai markets on May 23rd, provoking a panic that continued until May 27th. The shares of China Telecom, China Unicom and China Netcom were suspended, and those of China Mobile fell in value by 10%, or $31 billion. (The other two operators are unlisted.)
重组预期已延烧多年，但是重组迫近的传言还是搅起股市层层波澜，5月23日港股沪市双双大幅震荡，传言引起的恐慌情绪直到5月27日才被市场完全消化。中国电信，中国联通，中国网通的股票被停牌，中国移动的股票跌去10%——折合310亿（译者注：应该是港币，因为移动在香港上市）。（其它两家运营商没有上市。）

The main purpose of the plan is to create a more competitive industry—which means, in practice, taking China Mobile down a peg or two. It will gain a fixed-line arm, but that is no recompense for what it will give up: its lock on the massive mobile market, encompassing two-thirds of Chinese customers and an even higher share of new subscribers. Under the new rules, which have yet to be spelled out, it will face regulatory pressure to allow rivals into its market.
这次重组的主要目的是创造出一个更有竞争的行业——实际上就是意味着：对中国移动进行削弱。中国移动会得到一个固话的部门，但是这不足以弥补它将要失去的：中国移动近乎垄断的巨大的移动市场——三分之二中国的移动用户以及更高比例的新增移动用户。新规定明确表示：中国移动将会面临监管层的压力允许竞争者进入其市场。

China Mobile is also likely to be hobbled in another way. The reorganisation will at last allow the Chinese government to grant licences for “third generation” (3G) mobile services, after years of delay. 3G gives operators more capacity and makes possible whizzy mobile-data services. But the government has delayed issuing the licences so that China’s home-grown but long overdue 3G technology, called TD-SCDMA, can be used for at least one of the country’s three networks. (The other two networks will use foreign standards which are already widely deployed elsewhere.) It is expected that China Mobile will be forced to adopt TD-SCDMA, an immature standard for which there is only a limited selection of handsets and equipment.

中国移动在另一个领域也面临困难。重组之后中国政府会发拖延了好几年的“3G”牌照。3G赋予运营商更大的载容量同时使得智能手机数据服务变为可能。但是政府推迟3G牌照的发放是为了使得中国自主研制的但是延期很久的3G技术。TD-SCDMA可以做为国家的3个运营网络之一。（另外两个网络将会采用国外已经使用的技术标准。）中国移动应该会被强制接受尚不成熟的TD-SCDMA技术，现在可供选择的手机设备还很有限。

The reorganisation is the fourth since China first opened its telecoms industry to limited, state-orchestrated competition. Each time the government has arranged things to mirror the outcome produced by market forces in the West. The process has worked well in many ways: fees are low, access is broad and growth is strong. But will China’s pursuit of industrial-policy goals now hamper the industry’s progress?
中国政府开放电子通信市场之后，一直对其限制有加，并坚持在市场竞争中加入国家的引导。那之后已经进行了多次行业重组，这已经是第四回了。每次重组中政府都要加入一些新的元素，以反映了西方自由市场的力量。重组在很多方面起到了很好的作用：费用降低了，接入方式增多了，运营增长更强了。但是中国现在对产业化政策这一目标的追寻会不会阻碍整个行业的发展呢？