[2009.03.12] Pursued by Obamabears 小奥救局，熊市在后

The economy
美国经济
Pursued by Obamabears
小奥救局，熊市在后

Mar 12th 2009 | WASHINGTON, DC
From The Economist print edition

Investors fret that President Obama’s crisis response is not up to the task
奥总应危机，差强人意；投商陷迷局，忧心忡忡

BARACK OBAMA has modelled his early days on those of Franklin Roosevelt, the last president to take office during a serious economic crisis. But by one benchmark he is failing. At market close on March 11th, despite a rally this week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 16% below its level on the Friday before Mr Obama took office. At this point in Roosevelt’s presidency, 54 days in, it was up 35%.
话说巴拉克.奥巴马上台之后，便立富兰克林.罗斯福为早期楷模——罗斯福谁人也？正是上一位重度经济危机上台之总统。可有那么个指标小奥可没达到：说，3月11日收市之时，当周股市虽然有所回暖，可是比起奥巴马入主白宫之前那个周五的水准，道琼斯工业指数还是降低了16%。回想罗斯福当政此时，不过54日的功夫，可就上升了35%。

The “Obama bear market,” as conservative commentators have gleefully labelled it, has been blamed on two things: on the new president trying to do too much, and on his failure to do more. There is, paradoxically, truth to both assertions.
保守派评论人士幸灾乐祸，称之“奥氏熊市”；情势至此，原因不外乎两个：新总统上任胃口大，此为其一；没法儿完成更多，此为其二。列位看官看出矛盾了，可这两种说法还都有理儿。

Conservatives have attacked Mr Obama’s budget proposals as a wealth-destroying combination of increased government intervention and higher taxes. In truth, he had long promised to spend more on health care and alternative energy and to raise taxes on the rich, so little in the budget should have surprised investors.
保守人士严词抨击，说奥巴马提案增加政府干涉，抬高苛捐杂税，简直就是破坏财富。说句老实话，奥总承诺加大卫生保健、可替能源投入，给有钱人加税，由来已久；这预算，还真没什么值得投资商大惊小怪的。

A bigger dent to confidence comes from Mr Obama’s style, not his substance. His many backers on Wall Street had taken his conciliatory manner and selection of centrist economic advisers as evidence that he would govern moderately despite, as a senator, having consistently voted on the left. They have been taken aback by his combative tone. On February 28th, for instance, he declared that “special interests and lobbyists” were “gearing up for a fight [and] so am I.” Earlier, he said bankers could not take their bail-out money and “pad their paychecks or buy fancy drapes or disappear on a private jet.” Bankers fear this demonisation is driving down their share prices. Confidence has also been rattled by plans to pass a bill letting unions organise without a secret ballot.
信心的更大缺口，并非奥巴马的政策内容，而是他的执政方式：笑颜满面，选温和派经济顾问，华尔街的“奥挺”们由是相信，总统大人虽然时任参议员之时总是往左边倒，现今执政仍会平稳有度。奥巴马口气“杀气腾腾”，他们就不免一激。话说2月28日，奥巴马宣：“特殊利益集团和游说人士整装待发，准备战斗；吾亦如此。”这之前他还说银行家们不能一手敛纾困之财一手签“无度开支，购华衣以装扮乘私机以无踪。”如此恶言是否会拉他们的股价下水，银行家们是惴惴不安。又一议案传来，联盟无需不记名投票即可组织，信心再度受挫。

But the Obamabears’ biggest fear is that Mr Obama’s remedies are not up to the task of fixing America’s deepening recession. To be sure, Mr Obama’s team has had a huge $787 billion stimulus package passed, begun evaluating banks’ need for more government capital, and unveiled a plan to reduce mortgage foreclosures. But in the meantime, the outlook has deteriorated sharply and the administration has still not decided how to get bad loans off banks’ balance sheets. Andrew Grove, the former chief executive of Intel, the world’s biggest microchip-maker, advised Mr Obama this week to “rein in the chaos” of differing financial fixes before moving on to health care and energy. Critics say Mr Obama is trying to do too much at once.
如说“奥氏熊市”最大忧患，莫过总统补救计划不足治美国于日渐萧条。没错，奥巴马团队通7870亿美元巨资刺激计划，始银行所需政府资金评估，出降低放贷赎取大计；可话说回来，情势急剧恶化，此等背景下怎样剔除银行资产负债表上的不良资产，政府仍踌躇不决。天字第一号微芯片制造商英特尔首席执行官安德鲁.格鲁夫为奥巴马出谋划策，建议他先“稳住”各种金融窘境“阵脚”，再进军卫生保健可替代能源。批评人士频频摇头：奥巴马啊，胃口太大。

Administration officials appreciate the urgency for action. In his budget, Mr Obama said he may need another $750 billion to stabilise the financial system, though the popular perception that the $700 billion has achieved little decreases the chances of his getting it. Tim Geithner, Mr Obama’s treasury secretary, reportedly abandoned plans for a “bad bank” to get distressed assets off the books of the financial system and help restart lending because of the political cost.
可是呢，行动展开急切，行政官却点头称许。奥巴马公布预算时放出话来：仍需7500亿美元来稳住金融体系。不过普遍观点认为前7000万都毫无起色，看来这笔钱要筹齐希望更是渺茫。据称，奥总财长蒂姆.盖特纳出于政治代价，不打算再助“坏银行”在金融体系帐簿中脱手不良资产，而转向重启贷款。

Mr Geithner’s own efficacy has been hamstrung by the fact he remains his department’s only Senate-confirmed official: 17 other top Treasury jobs requiring Senate approval remain vacant. In 2007 the Treasury website listed 120-odd officials, from Hank Paulson, the then treasury secretary, down. The current version of the same webpage lists just one: Mr Geithner. Candidates for the top jobs have been delayed or discouraged by Mr Obama’s gruelling background checks, made more so by Mr Geithner’s own tax problems, and the cloud over anyone who worked on Wall Street, meaning most of those with practical experience relevant to the crisis.
盖特纳倒是想喷洒一腔热血，无奈部门中参议院正式确认值官员唯他一人：财政部17个其他高层职位仍旧空缺无人。忆2007年，财政部网站上列出官员自汉克.保尔森而下120余人——这汉克.保尔森就是当时的财长。现在的网页可谓惨不忍睹，盖特纳之名孤挂其上。奥巴马对背景考察近乎苛刻，候选人不然悬空不定，不然知难而退。加上盖特纳招来逃税麻烦，有些克服危机实际经验的人大部分都在疑云重重的华尔街，这情形，可就更好不到哪儿去了。

All this has left foreign officials and domestic bankers frustrated at the lack of consultation from the Treasury. Some foreigners say planning for the G20 meeting in London next week is being affected (see article). “They’re overwhelmed,” says Ken Lewis, chief executive of Bank of America. The administration disputes this but admits unprecedented demand for Treasury officials’ attention.
于是乎，从国外官员到国内银行负责人都没无从咨询财政部，一些国外人士还说，下周伦敦的G20会议都受到了影响。美国银行首席执行官肯.刘易斯道：“他们乱了。”——奥巴马政府可不以为是，可他们也不得不认了：需得财政部官员此等关注，这还真是头一遭。

Whatever the cause, the strain on the Treasury is encouraging the view that Mr Obama’s agenda is being driven by political advisers and Congressmen, both more attuned to voters’ rage than to market confidence. Chris Dodd, who faces a battle to retain his Connecticut Senate seat in 2010, inserted tough new restrictions on bankers’ pay into the fiscal stimulus package despite the administration’s objections. Since then, a series of mostly small banks have said they will return bail-out money, frustrating the plan to increase the banking system’s capital and lending capacity.
这原因姑置不论，财政部重压当头，认为奥巴马工作计划受政治顾问国会议员所驱之人更是有增无减。可不管是政治顾问还是国会议员，他们更关注的是怎样压住票民怒火，而非稳住市场信心。就说这克里斯.多德，为保2010年康涅狄格参议院席位，不顾政府反对，毅然决定在财政刺激计划中对银行负责人另行限制。这之后小型银行络绎不绝要求退还纾困资金，增加银行体系资产和借贷能力大计划，不免困难重重。

For their part the Republicans have been able to shift the debate away from the need for government spending to dodgy examples of it. The Democrats had to fight hard to pass a $410 billion bill to finance the remainder of the current fiscal year this week, in part thanks to blistering attacks by Republicans on its 8,500 “earmarks”—pet projects inserted by legislators—though they total less than $8 billion.
共和党可以一闪了之，避政府开支之需不辨，择推托之例阔论；可民主党就得负固死战，力争通过那4100亿美元议案，在这周以内为本财年之余日融资——这里面，也少不了共和党怒攻8500多个项目的“专项拨款”此等大功。这“专项拨款”，说的就是立法者搞得一揽子小项目。虽说呢，这总共加起来也不到80亿美元。

William Galston, a former aide to Bill Clinton, this week advanced two “equally depressing” theories for why Mr Obama’s team has not more forcefully addressed the crisis: “Either they do not know what to do, or they do not believe they can muster the political support to do what they know needs to be done.” He advised Mr Obama to focus his attention on the crisis, or risk the loss of confidence Jimmy Carter suffered three decades ago. That would bring Obamabears out in droves.
克林顿以前的顾问威廉∙高尔斯顿，这周也就奥巴马团队为何不能更大力度解决危机提出两点理论，照他的话说，这两个理论“同等郁闷”：“他们不然就束手无策，不然就信心不足，不敢保票能得到支持，做所应做之事。”他进言奥总，抑或着眼危机，抑或重蹈三十年前吉米.卡特之覆辙，冒信心流失之险。倘若如此，“奥氏熊市”可就一发不可收拾了。

译者/rhineyuan：  http://www.ecocn.org/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=18009&extra=page%3D1