[2008.12.13] 汽车业与政府救助：投资密歇根

Bailing out the car industry
汽车业与政府救助

Invest in Michigan
投资密歇根

Dec 11th 2008 | DETROIT
From The Economist print edition

The rustbelt gets a lifeline
“衰落地带”抓住救命稻草

“INVEST IN AMERICA”, screamed the front page of the Detroit Free Press on December 4th. Copies of the newspaper were sent to Congress, begging for a bail-out for General Motors, Ford and Chrysler. “You can help them,” the paper urged, warning: “And if you don’t, make no mistake: there will be bleeding throughout the land.” The prospect of a collapsed car industry was so terrifying that a church in Detroit placed three hybrid SUVs on its altar and prayed for divine intervention.

12月4日的《底特律自由报》（Detroit Free Press）在头版大力呼吁”投资美国”。该报纸被送往国会，以期能够帮助通用（General Motors）、福特（Ford）、克莱斯勒（Chrysler）三大汽车制造商乞求政府救助。《底特律自由报》极力游说国会，”你们可以帮助他们”，同时也警告国会说，”如果你们不帮助他们，毫无疑问，这片土地将血流成河。”汽车工业崩溃的后果不堪设想，底特律一家教堂将三辆混合动力SUV置于圣坛之上，人们在下祈祷，希望能够得到神灵的救助。

Politicians, though, make unlikely deities. As The Economist went to press the bail-out was in limbo. Congressional Democrats and the White House had agreed on a $14 billion bridging loan to keep GM and Chrysler afloat until the end of March (Ford is in better shape). A “car tsar” would oversee the companies’ reorganisation. Nationalisation is the subtext of the deal, if not the headline. But though the House passed the bail-out on December 10th, the bill faces a much tougher battle in the Senate, where the Republicans are suspicious of it and still hold a blocking minority. Even if it succeeds, a bridging loan assures that the debate over a bail-out will drag on.

然而政客们却不大可能成为伸出援手的”神灵”。截至本期《经济学人》(The Economist)出版，政府救助仍悬而未决。国会民主党人和白宫达成协议，决定向通用和克莱斯勒提供140亿美元过渡性贷款，使他们得以维持到明年三月底（福特的情况比二者稍好），同时政府将指派一名”汽车沙皇”（car tsar），对二公司的重组进行监管，这笔”交易”颇有几分”国有化”的意味，甚至称其为主旨要义也不过分。尽管众议院已于12月10日通过该救助方案，但它在参议院还面临着一场更加艰难的”恶战”，该方案遭到参议院共和党议员的质疑，他们将成为阻止提案通过的少数派。即使参议院通过了该方案，过度性贷款也必将带来有关政府救助连绵不绝的争论。

Many proponents insist that Detroit’s “Big Three” carmakers, like some banks, are too big to fail. The Centre for Automotive Research (CAR), a group based in Ann Arbor, Michigan, estimated last month that the collapse of the industry would mean the loss of almost 3m jobs in 2009 and $157 billion in total tax revenues over three years. Merrill Lynch reports that a collapse could imperil Midwestern banks.

很多支持者坚持他们的观点，认为底特律汽车业三巨头就像某些银行，规模太大而不能破产。位于密歇根州安娜堡的汽车研究中心（Center for Automotive Research, CAR）上月预计汽车工业的崩溃意味着2009年将流失300万个工作岗位，政府在未来三年内将蒙受1570亿美元税收损失。美林（Merrill Lynch）则声称汽车业崩溃将使美国中西部银行陷于险境。

In examining the Big Three and their role in America’s economy, however, answering “what if” may be less useful than “what is”. The car and parts industries employed 732,800 workers directly as of September and the Big Three employed 239,341 workers at the end of 2007, according to CAR. Some 2m present and former workers depend on carmakers for health care.

在审视汽车业三巨头及其在美国经济中所扮演的角色的时候，弄清楚”是什么”要比”如果是什么”有用得多。根据汽车研究中心数据，汽车及其零件工业截至9月份直接雇佣工人732800人，三巨头截至2007年底共有239341名雇员。他们还负担着约200万雇员、前雇员的医疗费用。

Nevertheless, since 1980 the Big Three’s footprint on America has shrunk. They have closed farther-flung assembly plants and retreated to their historic base in the upper Midwest, explains Thomas Klier of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Foreign carmakers, meanwhile, have found fertile ground in the South, building factories in states such as Alabama, Mississippi and Tennessee. The Big Three still loom largest in the rustbelt though they are also important to states such as Louisiana and Missouri. In 2006 car and parts manufacturing comprised 5% of GDP in Ohio, 7.6% in Indiana and 10% in Michigan, according to the most recent figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

然而，自1980年以来，三巨头在美国的影响面已经有所缩小。芝加哥联邦储备银行（Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago）的托马斯•克里尔（Thomas Klier）介绍说，他们关闭了分布广泛的装配工厂，退回位于中西部地区北部的历史性基地。与此同时，外国汽车制造商发现了美国南部沃土，在阿拉巴马、密西西比、田纳西等州建立工厂。三巨头在衰落地带（rustbelt）仍然举足轻重，不过对路易斯安那、密苏里等州的影响也不小。美国经济分析局（Bureau of Economic Analysis, BEA）的最新数据显示，2006年汽车及其零部件制造业占俄亥俄、印第安纳、密歇根各州GDP比例分别为5%、7.6%、10%。

Michigan remains the most dependent on the Big Three, even more so than the BEA’s numbers suggest. The BEA’s classification does not include headquarters and research facilities, most of which are clustered in the state, according to Donald Grimes, an economist at the University of Michigan. The BEA also groups together foreign and domestic carmakers. Ohio and Indiana have lured more foreign carmakers than their northern neighbour. The day before Rick Wagoner, GM’s chief executive, first visited Congress with his hand out, Indiana’s governor applauded the dedication of a new Honda factory.

密歇根州对三巨头依赖性最强，甚至比BEA数据显示的还要严重。密歇根大学的经济学家唐纳德•格莱姆斯（Donald Grimes）称，BEA的分类尚不包括总部和研究机构，而它们又大多聚集在密歇根州。在BEA的数据中也没有将外资企业与国内企业分开统计。俄亥俄和印第安纳比他们北边的”邻居”密歇根州吸引了更多的外资企业。就在通用首席执行官里克•瓦格纳（Rick Wagoner）第一次造访国会伸手要钱的前一天，印第安纳州州长还在给本田（Honda）在该州新建工厂的落成典礼捧场。

Michigan, by contrast, has risen and fallen with the fortunes of the Big Three. The state’s concentration of Big Three workers is 12 times the national average, explains Mr Grimes. This year’s annual forecast from the University of Michigan charts how the state gained almost 800,000 jobs between 1991 and 2000, and then proceeded to lose more than half of them, 415,000, from 2000 to 2007. A main reason, according to the report, is that the firms’ car sales fell from 11.5m units in 1999 to 8.1m in 2007.

相比之下，密歇根的沉浮与三巨头命运的联系更为紧密。Grimes先生说，三巨头在密歇根州的雇员总数是美国其它州平均人数的12倍。今年密歇根大学的年度预测图表显示从1991年至2000年，该州增加了80万个就业岗位，而2000-2007年之间又流失了一半以上（41.5万）的工作岗位。报告声称，三大公司的汽车销售量由1999年的1150万辆下降到2007年的810万辆是其主要原因。

The outlook remains dismal. The report predicts that Michigan will have a net job loss of 674,000 from 2000 to 2010. The university’s economists have long made a plaintive request to their state: diversify. That plea is suddenly more urgent.

前景仍然不容乐观。该报告预测密歇根将在2000至2010年间净流失67.4万个工作岗位。该大学的经济学家们长期以来一直哀请州政府实行产业多样化，而最近，”多样化”请求一时之间更为紧迫。

译者：Bender.Z  http://www.ecocn.org/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=16073&extra=page%3D1