制药行业
Buying opportunity
收购机遇
Oct 9th 2008 | NEW YORK
From The Economist print edition
Will drugs giants defy the credit crunch and splash out on biotech deals?
制药巨头们丝毫不顾信贷紧缩的影响，斥巨资收购生物技术公司。
THE financial crisis means that most lawyers and bankers specialising in mergers and acquisitions are twiddling their thumbs. With confidence shattered and credit hard to come by, deals have dried up in most industries. But not in pharmaceuticals.
金融危机已经使大多数从事并购的律师和银行家们变的无所事是。随着信心的破碎和信贷的紧缩，并购交易在大多数行业都很难看到了，但是在制药行业却不是这样的。
This week Eli Lilly, a medium-sized American drugs firm, outbid Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS), another middling American rival, for ImClone, a coveted biotechnology firm.Carl Icahn, a billionaire investor who owns a stake in ImClone, had noisily dismissed an earlier offer from BMS at a price of $62 per share as inadequate. He then claimed that a mystery bidder had emerged offering $70 a share—51% above the share price on July 30th, before BMS made its offer. When Lilly confirmed that his claim was no bluff, and put forward an all-cash, $70-per-share offer worth $6.5 billion, BMS bowed out.
本周一家美国中型制药企业—礼来公司，以高于另一家美国中型制药公司—百时美施贵宝的出价获得了一家生物技术公司—ImClone。Carl Icahn先生（一位身价数十亿的投资者）拥有ImClone的股份，他曾以出价太低为由拒绝了百时美施贵宝以每股62美金收购他持有的ImClone的股份的请求。那时他曾声称在百时美施贵宝发出收购要求之前就有一个神秘的买家愿意以每股70美金的价格（比该公司7月30日的股票价格高51%）收购他持有的ImClone的股份。礼来的行动证明当时他所言非虚，而且这次收购要采用全现金的方式，按照70美金一股计算需要支付65亿美金，百时美施贵宝显然已经出局。
Many are wondering why Lilly is paying so much for ImClone. Roger Longman of Windhover, an industry consultancy, puts it bluntly: “This deal does not seem economically sensible.” Because BMS will keep the North American marketing rights for Erbitux, ImClone’s blockbuster cancer drug, much of the firm’s current revenue will not go to the buyer.
许多人不明白礼来为什么要为ImClone花这么多钱。Windhover的Roger Longman先生（一位产业分析师）：“这项交易在经济上未必明智。” 因为百时美施贵宝仍将拥有ImClone 公司的抗癌拳头产品Erbitux(爱必妥)北美市场的销售收益，这将使收购方无法获得该公司现有的大部分收益。
Lilly has its eye on the biotech firm’s promising pipeline of drugs, but there too BMS thinks it has rights to some of the revenue from any successor to Erbitux—a claim Lillyis sure to dispute.
也许礼来盯上了该公司充满希望的产品组合，但是百时美施贵宝也是这样想的，它已经表示自己有权利分享除Erbitux(爱必妥)以外的其他产品的收益-礼来一定会对这一说法提出质疑。
So why did Lilly outbid BMS? The short answer is desperation. Much of the pharmaceutical industry faces a crunch in the next few years because today’s blockbusters will lose patent protection and their research pipelines have failed to come up with enough replacements. The problem is particularly acute at Lilly. By one estimate, nearly 60% of its $19 billion in sales may dry up as generic versions of its drugs become available between 2010 and 2013.
那为什么礼来要出比百时美施贵宝更高的价格来收购mClone呢？简短回答就是为了走出绝境。对大多数制药企业而言未来几年它们将面临生死存亡的考验，因为今天依靠的重磅***产品将失去专利保护而其自身的研发能力却无法填补这一空白，这种问题在礼来身上特别明显，根据评估，到2010-2013年其190亿美金销售收入中的近60%将本仿制药蚕食掉
ImClone’s pipeline of cancer drugs in early and mid-stage development promises to fill out Lilly’s portfolio and, its bosses hope, make it an oncology powerhouse. If that bet
works out, argues Tim Anderson of Sanford Bernstein, a financial-research outfit, Lilly may yet be vindicated.
礼来的老板希望用ImClone的那些处于早期和中期开发阶段的抗癌症药物来填补礼来的产品组合，让ImClone给自己提供源源不断的抗癌药物。Sanford Bernstein公司（一家专业提供财务分析的公司）的Tim Anderson说：如果事实真如礼来所原，那它的做法也就值得肯定了。
As for BMS, its apparent loss this week may prove to be a victory. In addition to revenue from Erbitux (and possibly its successor), it says it will realise a $1 billion gain by selling its 17% stake in ImClone. The firm also has some $7 billion in cash with which to pursue other acquisitions. Jean-Marc Huet, BMS’s finance chief, argues that the credit crunch, which hits smaller and start-up firms harder than big drugs companies, may produce a bonanza of “undervalued” firms for BMS to gobble up.
对百时美施贵宝而言虽然表面上是输家但是从另一个角度看也可能是胜利者。除了从Erbitux(爱必妥)以及其他可能的产品那里获得收益以外，它还可以通过出售ImClone17%的股份来获得10亿美金的收入。百时美施贵宝拥有70亿美金来收购其他公司。百时美施贵宝的首席财务官Jean-Marc Huet说面对信贷紧缩的情况小一些或者处于起步阶段的公司面临的困难要比大公司要大，也许百时美施贵宝有机会兼并掉价值被低估的公司。
Amid today’s panic, it is heartening to hear such confidence. Is there really a wave of drugs deals in the offing? One reason to think so is that the pharmaceutical industry is known for its large, reliable cashflows. That, Mr Longman argues, will persuade lenders to provide credit, should any be needed to complete deals. And because smaller firms have already gone by the wayside, he reckons the coming deals may involve bigger ones.
在当今的萧条时期，企业能有这样的信心实在是一件让人鼓舞的事情。在不远的未来是不是会有一波制药企业的收购浪潮？之所以这样说是因为制药企业有大量而可靠的现金来源。正如Longman先生所说如果收购需要钱，他们可以从放贷者那里借到钱。因为小企业已经陷入困境，他认为未来的交易将有利于大企业。
Unlike the large drugs companies, biotech firms tend to be small start-ups, and they are already seeing funding dry up. Leaders of Britain’s once up-and-coming biotechnology sector recently gave warning that selling out may soon be the only option. Dr Anderson suggests that America’s industry may follow suit. As if on cue, AtheroGenics, a cash-starved and debt-laden American biotech firm, declared bankruptcy this week.
因为与大型制药公司不同，生物技术企业一般处于小规模，刚起步的阶段，它们已经感觉到融资的艰难。英国一度欣欣向荣的生物技术公司已经发出了警告，用不了多久，出售自己可能是唯一的选择。Anderson博士认为美国的生物技术企业可能会步欧洲的后尘。如其所料，AtheroGenics公司（一家资金匮乏而且债务沉重的美国生物技术公司）本周宣布破产。
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