[2008.08.09] 美国车市：底特律与时间的竞速赛

The American car market
美国车市

Detroit’s race against time
底特律与时间的竞速赛

Aug 7th 2008
From The Economist print edition

Will the Big Three’s cash last long enough for them to fix themselves?
汽车业三巨头的现金流是否可以持续到挽救他们自己呢？

WITH each successive month the plight of Detroit’s Big Three manufacturers-General Motors (GM), Ford and Chrysler-becomes a little more desperate and their eventual fate less certain. July’s figures for light-vehicle sales in America, released last week, were unremittingly awful. Seasonally adjusted and annualised, sales fell to 12.5m from 15.3m last year. As in previous months, sales of pickups and sport-utility vehicles (SUVs), down by 31% year on year, were worst hit. But even car sales, hampered by supply shortages of the fuel-sipping compact models Americans now suddenly want, fell by 7.4%.
通用汽车、福特和克莱斯勒这三个雄踞底特律的汽车制造巨商所处的困境在连续数月中变得日益严重，并且最终的命数也变得飘忽不定。7月份轻型车在美国的销售额于上周公布，数字依然惨不忍睹。年度核算销售额季度调整后，从去年的1530万下降到1250万；6月份皮卡和SUV的销售同比下降了31%，可谓最为严重的打击。汽车总体销售额下降了7.4%，主要原因是燃油经济型轿车美国市场需求突增。

Reduced access to credit also had an impact, as carmakers become increasingly reluctant to finance lease agreements. Typically, at the end of a three-year lease, a vehicle is returned to the manufacturer which then disposes of it, usually profitably, at auction. But the prices being paid for used trucks are down by about 20% compared with last year. Chrysler Financial is losing $5,000 on every truck it takes back. At the end of July Chrysler stunned its dealers by saying it was getting out of leasing entirely. Ford and GM have not yet gone as far, but they are scaling back leasing in an effort to reduce future liabilities.
信用紧缩也是影响之一，汽车制造商对融资性租赁协议日益难以接受。最典型的是一个3年的租约，一辆汽车在租期结束后回到制造商手中进行处置，一般情况下通过拍卖还可以取得收益。但是二手卡车的价钱与一年前相比已经下跌了20%，克莱斯勒目前每收回一辆车就会亏损5000美元。7月末克莱斯勒宣布全部中止租赁协议，这一决定是经销商大跌眼镜；福特和通用虽然不至于如此激进，但是同样减少了租赁协议在销售中的占比，以减少远期债务。

The amount of new-car business that leasing accounts for varies from dealer to dealer. But for some dealers, more than half of turnover comes from leasing. Everyone has been affected, but the Big Three, with their model line-ups skewed towards the pickups and SUVs that are now out of favour, have been hurt most. GM’s sales in July were down by 32%, Chrysler’s by 34% and Ford’s by 20%. Their combined market share in America sank last month to an all-time low of 43%.
各经销商在新车市场上通过租赁协议的成交额各不相同，但是部分经销商超过半数的营业收入都是通过租赁。几乎所有的人都受到了影响，但是三巨头收到的冲击最深；因为他们在系列车型设计的偏好上明显倾向于皮卡和SUV，而这两种车一夜之间就失宠了。通用汽车的销售额在7月份下跌了32%，克莱斯勒达到了34%，福特也有20%的跌幅。他们合力控制的美国市场份额更是在上个月下降了43%，达到了有史以来的最低。

July’s wretched sales figures came hard on the heels of shocking losses announced first by Ford and then, a few days later, by GM. Ford’s $8.7 billion loss was its worst ever, and GM lost an eye-watering $15.5 billion in the quarter, the third-biggest loss in its 100-year history. Both firms took charges for huge restructuring costs, reflecting the acceleration of plans to take redundant capacity out of production and convert truck plants to making cars. There were also hefty write-downs on toxic leases.
福特和通用汽车数日内连续公布亏损数字后，7月份原本就很可怜的统计数字马上就变得更惨烈了。福特87亿美元的亏损是它从未出现过的经营劣绩；福特更加欲哭无泪，当季就消失了155亿美元的营业额，成为该公司百年历史上的第三大损失。两家公司为了加速利用冗余产能，都在卡车工厂改建项目上投入了巨资，用以生产更多的轿车。当然营业外支出冗多所造成的账面价值低估也是亏损的原因之一。

Chrysler, which is privately held, does not release financial data, but was forced by growing rumours of impending bankruptcy to issue a statement saying that despite the market turmoil, it was running ahead of its operational plan and had plenty of cash to see it through-a claim met with some scepticism. But if the speed with which the Detroit firms are burning cash is the biggest immediate cause for concern, the deeper question is whether they are using what remains to make their businesses viable in the long term.
由于私人控股的原因，克莱斯勒没有公布财务数据；但是在濒临破产谣言与日俱增的压力下，不得不发表声明表示其生产大大领先于预算计划并且有充足的现金熬过市场动荡。如此的断言打消了怀疑论者的疑问。目前备受瞩目的问题是底特律的这些公司会以什么样的速度烧钱，更深层的问题在于他们是否已经动用了维持公司长期生存的储备。

GM ended the quarter with $21 billion in cash, which sounds like a lot-but the firm is eating $1 billion a month. A few weeks ago, Patrick Archambault of Goldman Sachs, an investment bank, estimated that by the end of next year GM would only have about $8.7 billion left unless assets were sold or debt raised. In a bid to ease such fears, GM’s embattled chief executive, Rick Wagoner (pictured), announced the latest in a series of turnaround plans on July 15th. It included $2.5 billion-worth of cuts in marketing and capital expenditure, and a commitment to raise up to $7 billion through financing and asset sales.
通用汽车以210亿美元的收入结束了这个季度的销售，貌似很多，但是公司每月的消耗就需要10亿美元。投行Goldman Sachs的Partick Archambault于数周前做出如下预测：截至明年底，通用汽车的储备只有87亿美元，除非它售卖资产或者举债。通用汽车的首席执行官Rick Wagoner已经身陷重围，为了削弱这种恐惧，7月15日他宣布了系列调整方案中的最新一项。包括削减25亿美元用于营销及资本项下的预算，以及通过金融和资产销售筹集70亿美元的承诺。

Ford is in slightly better shape. Although it used up $8 billion in cash during the first half of the year ($4.5 billion went on a one-off payment to a union-run health fund for retired workers), it has cash reserves of $26.6 billion. Its boss, Alan Mulally, has given up forecasting when the firm will return to profit, but Don Leclair, the chief financial officer, says he is confident that he has enough money to finance the recovery strategy. Critically, Ford’s market share, unlike those of its Detroit rivals, seems to be stabilising, at around 14%.
福特的境况要稍好一些，尽管上半年就花费了80亿美元的现金（其中的45亿一次性用于公会为退休员工组织的健康基金），现金（先进）储备仍然达到266亿。Alan Mulally这个大老板已经放弃对公司何时恢复盈利做出任何预测；但是首席财务官Don Leclair坚信有充足的现金可以推行复苏计划。最关键的是与同处于底特律的竞争对手们不同，福特的市场份额似乎稳定在14%的水平。

As for Chrysler, who knows? The company insists its cash position is “stronger than planned”, but that is hard to reconcile with a forecast from Edmunds.com, a popular website for car-buyers, that its unit sales will shrink by nearly a third this year.
天知道克莱斯勒是什么情况，公司坚持其现金情况比计划的还要坚强，但是这很难与著名汽车销售网站–Edmunds.com 的预测相符，该网站预测福特今年的销售额会所水1/3。

In the race to restructure before the cash runs out, Ford looks best placed at the moment-a change from last year, when GM was in the lead. Both firms know that salvation lies in getting smaller cars to market quickly and selling them at premium prices. And both have access to attractive products built by their European divisions. But Ford is making more rapid progress. In July Mr Mulally said three of Ford’s North American truck plants would switch to making small cars, at least four of which will come from Europe-new versions of the Fiesta, Focus, C-Max minivan and Kuga crossover. The Fiesta and Focus, Mr Mulally promised, will be coming off the lines within two years.
在重组与现金流断链的竞赛中，福特目前的位置似乎最佳–去年通用汽车处于龙头地位。两家公司都明白解决之道：在市场上尽快溢价销售小排量汽车，这两家公司的欧洲分支机构都有吸引眼球的产品。目前福特的进展更快一些，Mulally先生在7月宣布福特位于北美区的3个卡车生产厂将会进行改建用以生产轿车，至少4种车型来自欧洲–新款菲亚特，福克斯，C-max迷你厢车以及Kuga跨界车；同时他承诺菲亚特和福克斯将于2年内下线。

GM’s global design chief, Ed Welburn, acknowledges that its next generation of small cars will be designed in places like South Korea and Europe where they “really know how to do small cars”. But unlike Mr Mulally, Mr Wagoner has not said what will be arriving and when. Indeed, at times he seems weighed down by the sheer complexity of managing such a bloated product portfolio. On August 5th, after an annual review of product plans, Mr Wagoner, on whose five-year watch GM has lost some $70 billion, retained the support of his board. But decent and competent though he is, time may be running out for him even faster than it is for GM.
通用汽车的全球设计总监Ed Welburn坦言到，负责设计下一代的微型汽车的国家应该是韩国或者欧洲国家，因为他们真正的明白如何去生产制造小型汽车。Wagoner 和Mulally风格不同，他没有透露新产品的细节以及下线的时间和地点；有时候他确实会因为管理庞杂产品组合的复杂性而显得很沉重。虽然Wagoner的领导在过去的5年时间里给通用汽车带来了700亿美元的损失，但是8月5日的产品计划年度评审结束后，他仍然得到了董事会对他的支持。然而无论他的表现多么得体和胜任，留给他的时间恐怕比留给通用汽车的会更短。

译者：Tidehunter     http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=13272&extra=page%3D1