Kabuki economics 夸张的日本经济

Japan’s fragile economy 日本脆弱的经济

Kabuki economics 夸张的日本经济

A set of positive indicators hides troubling realities 一组表现优异的宏观经济指标暗藏着许多令人不安的现实。

Feb 18th 2010 | TOKYO | From The Economist print edition

PICK a number, any number. Statistics released this week show that the Japanese economy staged a vigorous rebound in the fourth quarter of last year. Real gross domestic product grew by 1.1% from the previous quarter, which amounted to an annualised rate of 4.6% (see chart). The economy is growing, but the closer you look the murkier things get.
（分析日本经济）挑选一组数据，任一数据（都藏有不安）。这周公布的数据表明，去年第四季度日本经济出现了强势反弹。第四季度实际国内生产总值较第三季度增长了1.1%——按年率计算为4.6%（见图表）。日本经济正在回升，但是你越仔细观察她，越是难以看清她。

The bounce in fourth-quarter GDP partly reflects the economy’s starting point. In the previous quarter growth had been nil, having been readjusted downward twice, from an initial estimate of 1.2% in November and a revised one of 0.3% in December. (If the latest numbers are to be believed, Japan’s GDP ended up contracting by 5% last year.)
去年第四季度国内生产总值的回升在一定程度上可以看成是经济发展的起点。上一季度（指2009年第三季度——译者注）的经济增长率为0%，（该季度经济）增长年率向下调整了两次——一次是从1.2%（11月）下调到0.3% （12月），后又从0.3%（12月）下调到0%。（1.2%和0.3%均是按年率计算所得，若以0.3%的年率为计算基础，则第三季度环比经济增长率为0.0749%。根据第三季度年增长率为0，得出该季度经济环比增长率为0%——译者注）（如果最近的数据可信，那么2009年日本国内生产总值会以缩水5%收官）

（这里的-5%与前面的季度环比增长率的年率计算和季度环比增长率的计算都没有关系，其计算公式为A*(1+R)^y=B 其中A为计算增长率的期前数，B为期末数，R为增长率，y为所覆盖到的年份数，此处A为2008年日本国内生产总值，B为2009年日本生产总值 R即为这里要求解的-5%,y等于1. 如果第四季度（the latest number）的环比增长率今后不改动，那么日本2009年全年的GDP不会变动，故可求出2009年的经济增长率——译者注）

Similar revisions are possible this time round. Japan’s number-crunchers continually update the economic numbers using new information and eschew statistical methods to smooth the figures, as in other countries. Like Japanese kabuki theatre, in which characters use exaggerated gestures to energise the audience, the country’s statistics unrealistically magnify both good news and bad.
这次可能也要做出类似的数据修正。日本内阁府中的财务省屡屡利用新信息来更新宏观经济数字并且没有像其他国家一样采用统计方法来平滑数据。在日本的歌舞伎座剧场里，表演者利用夸张的举止来感染观众，同样，这个国家的宏观经济数据不切实际地同时夸大利好消息和利空消息。

The uncertainties do not end there. The big drivers of growth last quarter were domestic demand, which contributed 2.1 percentage points to annualised GDP growth, and exports, which contributed 2.2 percentage points. (The balance came from public-sector demand.) This might suggest that Japan’s economy is gradually rebalancing away from a dependence on external demand. Not so.
经济发展的不确定性依然存在。上一季度经济增长的主要驱动力是国内需求，它给GDP的年增长率贡献了2.1个百分点，同时还有出口，它则贡献了2.2个百分点。（剩下0.3个百分点来自于公共需求）。这或许表明日本经济正逐渐恢复平衡，告别了（过去两个季度中）依靠外需的经济增长模式。但是事实并非如此。

Nearly all the growth in consumer spending came from durable goods like cars and electronic gadgets, which have benefited from government subsidies introduced last year. These subsidies are ending in September (for cars) and December (for electronics and appliances). Once durable goods are removed from the data, consumer spending in the fourth quarter was flat. That is unsurprising. Wages are falling and unemployment, though below its peak of 5.7% last July, remains above 5%, high by Japanese standards. Household consumption fell in 2009 as a whole but sales of beansprouts, a classic belt-tightening purchase in Japan, jumped by more than 10%.
几乎所有私人消费开支的增加都来自于耐久商品诸如汽车和电子设备的购买，这得益于去年政府推出的补贴计划。汽车补贴在9月份结束，而在12月，家用电器的补贴也告一段落。一旦将耐用消费品的开销不纳入数据，那么第4季度私人消费开支便呈低迷之状。这一点都不奇怪。工资在下降并且失业率，尽管低于去年7月份的峰值5.7%，但是依然徘徊在5%以上，这高于日本标准。家庭消费在2009年整体下降但是豆芽菜的销量却跳升了10%还多，在日本，豆芽菜是勒紧裤带度日的传统食品。

What about investment? Capital expenditure rose by 1% in the final three months of 2009, the first increase in seven quarters. But that came after a cumulative 25% decline since mid-2008. Firms’ capacity-utilisation rate, which measures the usage of existing equipment, is low. This suggests that capital expenditure has stabilised but not recovered, says Hiroshi Shiraishi of BNP Paribas.
那投资如何呢？资本开支在2009年最后一个季度上升了1%，是七个季度以来的首升。但那是在经历了自2008年中期以来累计下跌25%之后出现的。企业的产能利用率——用来测量现有设备的利用程度——处于低位。这表明资本开支一直稳定但是并没有恢复，法国巴黎银行的Hiroshi Shiraishi如是说。

That leaves exports, Japan’s normal route out of recessions. Exports produce the bulk of corporate profits, even though domestic consumption accounts for about 60% of GDP. The recovery is fragile here too. The country’s biggest export destination last quarter was China, sales to which increased by 43% in December alone. As Beijing tamps down on bank lending to address potential overheating, that number may yet turn out to be another illusion.
剩下的就是出口了，它是日本摆脱经济衰退的正规之路。日本的出口带来了丰厚的企业利润，尽管国内需求在GDP中的比重约占到60%。 经济复苏（的基本面）依旧脆弱。去年第四季度日本最大的贸易出口对象是中国，单单在12月，日本对中国的贸易额就上升了43%。 随着中国政府打压银行信贷来应对可能出现的经济过热，那一数据还可能最终证明是另一番幻影。

译者：Intel英杰
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