Buttonwood
梧桐树专栏
Stimulating debate
经济刺激引激辨
The markets, and developed economies, are too dependent on government action
市场——以及发达经济体——均过分依赖政府行为。
Feb 4th 2010 | From The Economist print edition
Illustration by S. Kambayashi
AS JANUARY goes, so goes the year. That old stockmarket saying does not augur well for 2010, given that the MSCI World index fell by 4.2% in the month, the biggest decline since February 2009, and emerging markets dropped by 5.6%.
一月萧规，全年曹随。考虑到MSCI全球股指在该月失守4.2%——创下去年2月以来的最大跌幅——而新兴市场指数则跌掉5.6%，这句股市格言对2010年可不是什么好兆头。
Although markets rallied a bit in early February on better-than-expected economic data, the poor start to the year reflected an inherent contradiction to the rebound of 2009. That rally seemed to be dependent both on extraordinary stimulus measures by governments and central banks, and on a vigorous economic recovery. But both cannot co-exist for long: either the recovery will not last or, if it does, the stimulus will be taken away.
尽管市场由于经济数据好过期望而于2月初微幅上扬，年初的糟糕表现反映的却是对去年反弹的一次内在调整。此次上扬所倚赖的似乎是政府与央行超常的刺激举措，以及整体经济的强力复苏。然而，二者无法并行持久——要么是复苏难以为继，倘若真的挺住了，刺激措施也将被撤掉。
In addition, governments’ ability to provide that stimulus is dependent on the markets’ own willingness to fund huge deficits at very low yields. But why would investors accept meagre yields if they expected a vigorous recovery? In a sense, the market seemed to be hauling itself up by its own bootstraps.
此外，政府提供刺激措施的能力取决于市场自身在低收益水平为其赤字融资的意愿。只是如果投资者期望复苏强劲，为什么还要接受这样微薄的收益呢？某种意义上，市场的努力终将是徒劳的。
Sure enough, the bullish story has started to unravel, if only at the edges. In the developing world China has attempted to tighten monetary policy. That has caused some alarm because China was acting as the engine of global growth.
果不其然。这片牛市图景的瓦解已然开始——但愿无甚大碍。在发展中国家，中国已试图收紧其货币政策。这导致了些许惊慌，因为中国近来一直扮演着全球增长引擎的角色。
And in the developed world investors have started to question the ability of governments to keep financing their deficits. The obvious example is in Greece, where ten-year bond yields reached 7% late last month. At that level, which is well above likely Greek GDP growth, the country’s indebtedness would grow very rapidly. However unpopular it may prove to be, an austerity package is needed to prevent Greece from falling into this debt trap.
发达世界中的投资者同样开始怀疑政府赤字融资的能力。最明显的例子要属希腊，其十年期债券收益于上月末达到7%，远高于其GDP可能的增长速度。而在这样的高水平上，该国负债的增长将非常迅速。无论怎样的不受欢迎，事实或将证明，希腊需要一个节俭方案以免掉进债务陷阱。
So even in places where governments may wish to maintain fiscal stimulus, the markets may force them into corrective action. Britain, France, Ireland, Spain, Portugal and others have all indicated their determination to keep deficits under control, with varying degrees of conviction.
因此，即便是那些政府希望维持财政刺激的地方，市场依旧可能强迫他们改变行为。英国、法国、爱尔兰、西班牙、葡萄牙以及其他一些国家均表明了其控制赤字的决心，只是信念的程度有所不同。
But withdrawal of even small parts of the stimulus packages can send an economy back into the doldrums. As an example, American new-home sales slowed sharply after an initial end-of-November deadline for the expiry of a buyers’ tax credit. Although the credit has since been extended until April, December’s sales were just 342,000, compared with 329,000 in January 2009, at the height of the crisis.
然而，即便是从刺激方案中抽走一小部分，也可能将经济重新送进衰退。例如，在购房者税收抵免的原计截止日于11月末到来之后，美国新屋销售剧烈放缓。尽管该抵免措施已被延至4月，12月的新屋销售量也只有342,000，比危机顶点时的一月售房量（329,000）强不了多少。
The stimulus may have prevented the global economy from slipping into depression. In the medium term, however, academic studies suggest that higher government spending leads to slower economic growth. A 2008 paper by Antonio Afonso of the European Central Bank and Davide Furceri of the University of Palermo calculates that for every one-percentage-point rise in government spending as a proportion of GDP, the growth rate falls by 0.12-0.13 percentage points.
刺激措施或已阻止世界经济陷入萧条。然而从中期来讲，学术研究表明政府支出的上升会导致经济增长的放慢。据欧洲中央银行（European Central Bank ）的Antonio Afonso与巴勒莫大学（University of Palermo）的Davide Furceri在2008年的一篇论文中计算[1]，政府支出的GDP占比每增加一个百分点，整个经济增长率便会下降0.12到0.13个百分点。
What’s more, the packages have not really dealt with the problem of excessive debt, but merely transferred it from the private to the public sector. This buys time, but is akin to those debt-consolidation plans that are sold to consumers on TV. The pain is spread out over a longer period. But pain there will be, in the form of higher taxes, higher bond yields, slower growth or a combination of all three.
更糟糕的是，这些刺激方案并未真正解决超额债务的问题，而只是把它们从私人部门转移到了公共部门。此举赢得了时间，却无异于那些在电视上兜售的债务整合方案。短痛变成了长痛，但痛苦终究要来——要么是赋税高调，要么是债券收益率上涨，要么是增长放缓，要么是三者同来，祸不单行。
The authorities face a dilemma. Reduce the stimulus now and they risk plunging the economy back into recession, as happened in America in 1937 and Japan in 1997. But leave the stimulus in place for too long, and they risk damaging long-term growth prospects.
政府当局可谓左右为难。立马减少刺激，意味着冒险把经济重新送进衰退，正如1937年的美国以及1997年的日本。时间过长的留着刺激不动，又意味着冒险损害长期的增长前景。
The bulls hope that the economy can escape from this trap by the simple expedient of private-sector growth. That is why they welcomed the rise in manufacturing activity signalled in this week’s latest purchasing managers’ indices. If the private sector rebounds of its own accord, unemployment will fall and budget deficits will decline.
乐观派希望经济可以通过私人部门增长这样的简单出路来摆脱此类困境。本周最新采购经理指数所反映的制造业活动上升受到他们的欢迎正是出于这个原因。倘若私人部门凭借自身力量反弹，失业便会下降，预算赤字也会减少。
But hopes for a strong private-sector recovery are undermined by the data on credit growth. In the year to December, the broad measure of money supply fell by 0.2% in the euro zone and grew by just 3.4% in America. In Britain the annual growth rate is higher (6.4% in December), but David Owen, an economist at Jefferies International, estimates that quantitative easing (QE), whereby central banks create money to buy assets, has been boosting the figure by an annualised rate of 10%. If the Bank of England stops QE entirely, the credit-growth rate could collapse. For the stockmarket rally to resume properly in 2010, economies in the developed world need to show they can stand on their own two feet.
然而，对私人部门强劲反弹的希望却受到信贷增长数据的侵蚀。去年12月，广义货币供给在欧元区同比下降了0.2%，在美国也不过增长了3.4%。英国该项数据虽然略高（6.4%），但根据Jeferies International的经济学家大卫•欧文（David Owen）计算，按年记，定量宽松把该数据推高了10%。如果英格兰银行（Bank of England）完全退出定量宽松，信贷增长或可彻底崩解。由于股市上扬在2010年将适当恢复，发达经济体需要表明它们可以完全不靠政府刺激。
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译注
[1] 全文见 http://pascal.iseg.utl.pt/~depeco/wp/wp042008.pdf
译者：弓长贝恩
如想与译者本人对该文进行切磋，请到如下链接：http://ecocn.org/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=30858