Troubled Ireland and Europe
麻烦不断的爱尔兰和欧洲

Lisbon’s last hope
《里斯本条约》——最后的救命稻草

Jun 25th 2009 | DUBLIN
From The Economist print edition

The Irish government is unpopular—but may still win a Yes to the Lisbon treaty
虽然当前的爱尔兰政府不是那么招人待见，但仍有可能因为《里斯本条约》而赢得选举

THE Lisbon treaty has not changed since Irish voters decisively rejected it a year ago. Yet Ireland’s prime minister, Brian Cowen, is confident of winning a second referendum on it in early October, despite his government’s unpopularity. At the European Union summit on June 18th and 19th the other EU countries gave him enough guarantees over how the treaty will affect Ireland. The first referendum was lost partly because voters were confused by false claims. The guarantees make clear that the treaty does not threaten Ireland’s stance on abortion, its right to set corporate-tax rates or its neutrality.

在一年前遭到爱尔兰选民的坚决抵制后，《里斯本条约》并没作出任何改变。但爱尔兰总理布赖恩•科恩对凭借《里斯本条约》在10月初赢得今年第二次全民公投信心满满，似乎无视其政府的低支持率。在6月18日和19日举行的欧盟峰会上，众欧盟国家纷纷向他做出充分保证——条约会对爱尔兰起作用的。布赖恩在第一次全民公投中失利部分是因为选民们被一些虚假信息搞昏了头。而这次，众欧盟国家的保证已经说得很明白了：条约不会影响爱尔兰对堕胎的态度、制订公司税率的权利，或者是爱尔兰的中立。

EU leaders have also agreed to change the rules so that each country will now retain a commissioner. The prospect of losing their commissioner (which, ironically, might now happen only if Lisbon fails) seemed particularly to upset voters last June. For Mr Cowen, this is a negotiating triumph—but it is also his sole political success in a dismal year, during which his government has lost public confidence as it struggles to cope with a deep recession.

欧盟领导人还同意修改规定，以便每个成员国都能在欧盟保留一个委员的位置。去年六月，正是因为担心失去欧盟委员的位子（讽刺的是，在今天，这种担心只有在《里斯本条约》被否决的情况下才会实现），才使爱尔兰选民们惶恐不安。对科恩来说，这是一次外交斡旋的胜利，但同样也是他在这前景阴霾的一年中取得的唯一一次政治胜利。这一年以来，他领导的爱尔兰政府应对经济大衰退的方式广受民众诟病，公众已经对其丧失了信心。

His poll rating and that of his Fianna Fail-led government are at record lows. Only one in five respondents is satisfied with Mr Cowen’s performance; only one in ten with that of the government. Earlier this month Fianna Fail did badly in the European election and worse in local elections, when it recorded the lowest share of the national vote in its 83-year history. Fianna Fail and Mr Cowen have a poor record on EU referendums, losing two out of three since 2001. Yet the polls point to a yes.

科恩及其共和党政府的支持率达到了新低：只有五分之一的民众对科恩的表现感到满意，而对政府满意的只有可怜的区区十分之一。本月早些时候共和党在欧洲议会选举中表现得十分糟糕，而在本国的选举中更是一塌糊涂，创造了共和党成立83年以来最低得票率。共和党和科恩在欧盟选举中的变现几乎一无是处——2001年以来输掉了三分之二的选举。但是眼下，他们很有可能赢得本国今年的第二次全民公投。

Cowen, unloved but unbowed
不受欢迎，但还不肯认输的科恩

That may be because the global downturn has hit Ireland so hard. GDP will contract by 10% this year, say new OECD forecasts, and unemployment may reach 12%. Yet even as the downturn has accelerated, public support for Lisbon has picked up. By last month a two-to-one majority of those who had made their minds up favoured ratification. The recession may have changed voters’ minds as they ponder the benefits of membership of the EU and the euro in a financial crisis—and as they note the troubles of a non-member like Iceland.

共和党有希望赢得选举，也许得归功于重创了爱尔兰的全球经济衰退吧。据经合组织预测，爱尔兰今年的GDP会缩水10%，失业率将达到12%。虽然衰退的速度在加快，但民众对《里斯本条约》的支持率却提升了——有三分之二的爱尔兰民众已经决心支持条约的通过。也许正是经济衰退改变了选民们的想法，让他们能更好地权衡这一点：欧盟席位和经济危机中的欧元，哪一个更重要。还想不通的话，那就看看非欧盟成员国的冰岛遇到危机时的窘迫相吧。

For both sides, the second referendum campaign will be quite different. Given the unpopularity of Mr Cowen’s government, success for the yes side will depend on the efforts of opposition parties and non-political groups. The anti-Lisbon side suffered a big setback with the failure by Declan Ganley, founder of Libertas and leading No campaigner last June, to win a seat in the European Parliament and Sinn Fein’s loss of its only seat. For Mr Cowen, a referendum success may buy some time. But neither he nor his government can hope to survive another failure.

对于选举双方来说，第二次全民公投意义非凡。鉴于科恩的政府眼下并不受欢迎，所以任何一方想要获得胜利，还得看反对党和非政治团体的表现。反对《里斯本条约》 的一方，因德克兰•甘利（此君还领导了去年6月的反对欧盟宪法运动）所成立及领导之自由党在欧洲议会选举中的失败，以及新芬党失去其议会的唯一一席而元气大伤。对科恩来说，一次全民公投的胜利也许能赢得一些时间，但是他和他的政府可不能指望着每次都有那么好的运气。