[2008.05.22] Inflation’s back 通胀归来

Taken as a whole (and using official figures), the average world inflation rate has risen to 5.5%, its highest since 1999. The main cause has been the surge in the prices of food and oil, which briefly soared above $135 a barrel this week. But Mr Trichet’s concern is that higher headline rates could push up inflation expectations, leading to bigger pay demands, and so trigger a wage-price spiral, as in the 1970s. Central bankers’ mistake then was to hold monetary policy too loose, so that higher oil prices quickly fed into other prices. So it is worrying that global monetary policy is now at its loosest since the 1970s: the average world real interest rate is negative.
整体而言（使用官方数据），全球平均通货膨胀率今 年上升到自1999年以来新高的5.5%。这主要是因为食品和石油价格的上涨，后者本周突破135美元一桶。特里谢先生担心，现在的情况可能如同70年代 一样，更高的整体通货膨胀率会提升通货膨胀预期，引发大幅加薪的需求，从而引发工资价格的螺旋上升。70年代各中央银行错在货币政策太宽松，从而使高油价 迅速体现在其他价格当中。现在的货币政策是70年代以来最宽松的—世界平均实际利率为负—这一事实令人格外担忧。

By slashing interest rates as inflation has climbed, has the Fed sowed the seeds of a new inflationary era? That case looks hard to prove in the rich world. Inflation rates of 3.9% in America and 3.3% in the euro area are far higher than central banks want, and inflation expectations are rising. If growth in the euro area remains robust, the ECB should certainly worry more about inflation. Yet so far there is little sign that higher food and oil prices are pushing up other prices in the rich economies. Wages have remained relatively subdued and core rates of inflation (excluding food and energy) are little higher than a year ago. Moreover, growth is expected to be below trend in America and Europe over the next year or so and unemployment is likely to climb, which will help to curb wage rises. America’s consumer-confidence index has fallen to a 28-year low, which suggests that consumer spending will fall. This, in turn, will spur firms to cut costs and limit pay rises.
在 通货膨胀率上升时大幅削减利率，联储是否埋下通胀的祸根？在发达国家恐怕很难这样说。美国通货膨胀率是3.9%，欧元区为3.3%，都远高于中央银行的目 标，并且通货膨胀还在上升。如果欧元区发展持续强劲,欧洲中央银行就肯定会更加担心通货膨胀了。然而到目前为止没有迹象表明在发达国家食品石油价格的上涨 也拉高了其他价格，工资相对比较稳定，核心通货膨胀率（除去食品和能源）并不比去年高多少。据估计大约一年以后，美国和欧洲的增长将会减慢，失业率将上 升，这有助于抑制工资上升。美国消费者信心指数已经跌至28年来最低，意味着消费支出降低，这又会刺激企业进一步削减成本，控制工资上升。

The picture is very different in emerging countries. Prices are rising much faster partly because food accounts for a bigger chunk of their consumer-price indices. But wages (rising at nearly 30% a year in Russia) and core-inflation rates are also accelerating. Many of these economies are operating close to full capacity, where inflation is more likely to take hold.
在新兴经济情况迥然不同。因为食品在消费者价格指数中所占比重较大，价格上涨要快得多。但工资（在俄罗斯一年上涨了将近30%）和核心通货膨胀率同样在上升。许多经济体已经几乎开动了自身的全部生产能力，通货膨胀极有可能在这些地方肆虐。

There are alarming similarities between emerging economies today and the rich world in the 1970s when the Great Inflation lifted off. Many policymakers in emerging markets view the rise in inflation as a short-term supply shock and so see little need to raise interest rates. Instead they are using price controls and subsidies to cap prices. Money supplies are growing almost three times as fast as in the developed world. Many central banks are still not fully independent. And inflationary expectations are not properly anchored, increasing the risk of a wage-price spiral. Emerging markets may as well be inviting the muggers into their own homes.
今天，新兴经济与70年代发展严重通货膨胀的发达国家之间有着惊人的相似 性。新兴经济的许多政策制定者将通货膨胀率上升视为短期供给的冲击，因而认为没有必要提高利率，而是使用价格控制和补贴的办法来控制价格。货币供给速度是 发达国家的三倍。许多中央银行还没有完全独立。通货膨胀预期并没有有效平复，从而增加了工资价格螺旋上涨的风险。同以前的发达国家一样，新兴经济现在也在 引狼入室。

Rising inflation, like so much of the world economy in recent years, can be explained partly by the increasingly complex links between developed and emerging economies. Emerging economies shared some responsibility for America’s housing and credit bubble. As Asian economies and Middle East oil exporters ran large current-account surpluses, they piled up foreign reserves (mostly in American Treasury securities) in order to prevent their currencies from rising. This pushed down bond yields. At the same time, cheap imports from China and elsewhere helped central banks in rich economies hold down inflation while keeping short-term interest rates lower than in the past. Cheap money fuelled America’s bubble.
通货膨胀加剧，同近些年的大部分经济现象一样，在一定程度上由于发达和新兴经济之间联系日益复杂导致的。新兴经济在一定程度上引起 了美国房地产和信用泡沫。由于亚洲经济体和中东石油出口国有巨大的经常项目盈余，为防止货币升值他们积累了大量的外汇储备（大部分是美国国债），从而拉低 了债券收益。与此同时，从中国或其他地方进口的廉价商品有助于中央银行在保持短期利率低于以往的前提下有效控制通货膨胀。低息贷款又使美国的经济泡沫雪上 加霜。

Now that this bubble has burst, the cross-border monetary stimulus has changed direction. As the Fed has cut interest rates, emerging economies that link their currencies to the dollar have been forced to run a looser monetary policy, even though their economies are overheating. Emerging economies with currencies most closely aligned to the dollar, notably in Asia and the Gulf, have seen the biggest price rises. Countries, such as Mexico, that have more flexible exchange rates and are more committed to inflation targets have done better.
现 在泡沫已经破灭，国际货币的刺激因素也转换了作用方向。随着联储调低利率，虽然国内经济已经过热，将本国货币与美元挂钩的新兴经济仍然被迫实行了更加宽松 的货币政策。货币严格盯住美元的新兴经济，尤其是亚洲和海湾地区，价格上升幅度最大。而汇率有较大弹性并且更加致力于控制通货膨胀的国家，比如说墨西哥， 经济表现要好一点。

Even if the Fed’s interest rate suits the American economy, global interest rates are too low. In turn, the unwarranted stimulus to demand in emerging economies is further pushing up commodity prices; so too is speculative buying by investors seeking higher returns than from bond yields, which are still being depressed by the emerging economies’ build-up of reserves. This stokes inflationary pressures in America and Europe and makes life difficult for rich-country central banks.
即使联储的利率对于美国经济而言很合适，国际利率仍然很低。相应的，它刺激了新 兴经济的需求，抬高了商品价格。寻找比债券更高收益的热钱也起了同样的作用，新兴经济体的巨额外汇储备压低了美国国库券的收益率。这增大了欧美国家的通货 膨胀压力，让发达国家的中央银行日子很不好过。

Loose money in America and rigid exchange rates in emerging economies are a perilous mix. The longer emerging economies hold down their exchange rates, the greater the risk of rising global inflation. Admittedly, exchange-rate appreciation is not as simple a remedy for emerging economies as some claim: a rise in interest rates and the expectation of a further appreciation in the exchange rate could, perversely, exacerbate inflation by sucking in more capital; and setting the exchange rate free risks massive overvaluation. But with an economic serial killer on the loose, one way or another monetary policy will have to tighten and exchange rates rise.
美 国大量的货币和新兴经济刚性的汇率是一个危险组合。新兴经济固定自己的汇率越久，全球通货膨胀的风险越大。不得不承认，上调汇率对于新兴经济而言并不像有 些人声称的那样是一剂简单的良药。加息和进一步上调利率很可能产生反作用，吸纳进更多的资本而加剧通货膨胀，而汇率自由浮动则可能严重高估货币价值。但面 对通货膨胀这个经济连环杀手，必须设法收紧货币，上调汇率。