[2009.01.14] Beijing puzzle 中国贸易迷局

China’s trade
中国贸易

Beijing puzzle
中国贸易迷局

Jan 14th 2009 | HONG KONG
From Economist.com

Why is China’s trade surplus still growing when its exports have collapsed?
为何出口额大幅跌落后，中国的贸易顺差仍在增长呢？

AFP

REVISED figures published this week show that in 2007 China overtook Germany to become the world’s third-biggest economy. At the start of last year China also looked set to become the world’s biggest exporter, but for 2008 as a whole its exports remained smaller than Germany’s, because of a slump in the final months of the year. China’s exports tumbled by 13% (in dollar terms), in the fourth quarter, leaving them 3% lower in December than a year earlier. Yet, despite weak exports, China’s trade surplus rose to a record $457 billion at an annual rate in the fourth quarter-50% bigger than in the same period of 2007. What is going on?

本周发布的经过修正的数据显示：中国在2007年超越德国，成为世界第三大经济体。在去年年初，中国也有望成为世界最大的出口国，但由于去年最后几个月出口额的大幅降低，整个2008年中国的出口额仍小于德国。中国出口额在去年第四季度暴降13％（以美元计算），而且其12月份的出口额甚至比上年同期降低了3％。然而，尽管出口疲软，第四季度中国的贸易顺差仍上升到创纪录的4570亿美元年化增长速度–比2007年同期增长了50％。这是怎么回事呢？

In the first half of 2008 China’s trade surplus did indeed shrink (see chart). But since then, although exports stumbled, its imports fell by much more-down by 21% in the 12 months to December (compared with over 30% growth in the first half). The slump in both exports and imports was exacerbated by the global credit freeze, which has made it harder for buyers to get letters of credit to guarantee payment. Imports were also dragged down by cheaper oil and commodity prices and weaker imports of materials and components used to make exports. Inputs for export processing account for over 50% of China’s total imports, and the sharp fall in purchases suggests that producers expect exports to weaken further.

在2008年上半年，中国贸易顺差确实缩水了（如图所示）。但是从那开始，尽管出口在下跌，但是进口下跌的更厉害–2008年12月之前的一年里进口额下降了21％，而2008年上半年则是增长超过30％。全球信贷紧缩更加剧了进出口这样的同时下跌，因为信用紧缩使得买家很难从银行获取保证付款的信用证。由于石油与大宗商品价格的下跌和用于出口的原料、部件的进口疲软，进口额同样也被拉了下来。用于出口加工商品的进口占到超过中国进口总额的50％，大量减少的买进表明生产商预计出口会进一步下滑。

 But a more worrying reason why China bought less from the rest of the world is that its domestic demand has weakened. Consumer spending and manufacturing investment have so far held up reasonably well, but construction-a big user of imported raw materials-has collapsed. The impact of this on imports was exaggerated in the fourth quarter by an aggressive run down of stocks of steel and other materials.

但是，中国从世界其它地方进口减少的一个更令人担心的原因是：中国国内需求的疲软。消费和制造业投资目前为止还算比较可以，但是建设投资（进口原料的重要消费者）却已显著下降。这对进口的影响在第四季度因钢铁和其它原材料的股票狂跌而显得尤为严重。

With no end in sight for the rich world’s recession, China’s exports will continue to slide this year. Nomura, a Japanese bank, forecasts a drop of 6%-the first annual decline for more than 25 years. Imports, on the other hand, are expected to grow, albeit by a modest 3%. Imports of components for assembly and re-export will continue to decline, but once the government’s fiscal stimulus package kicks in, the large planned increase in infrastructure investment will boost imports of raw materials and machinery. If so, China’s trade surplus will shrink in 2009 and, for the first time in years, become a drag on GDP growth.

由于发达国家的衰退毫无结束的迹象，今年中国的出口还会继续下滑。日本银行野村证券预计中国今年的出口会下降6％–这是其25年多来的首次下降。另一方面，中国的进口可能会有所增长，尽管不是太多（大约3％）。用于组装和再出口的零部件进口将继续下滑，但是一旦政府的财政刺激计划得以实施，基础设施投资的大幅增长会促使原材料和机械设备进口的增长。如果那样的话，中国贸易顺差在2009年会下降，这也是其数年来首次拖累GDP的增长。

The collapse in exports in recent months and the consequent job losses in southern China have triggered speculation that the government might try to push down the value of the yuan. After rising fairly steadily against the dollar over the past couple of years, the yuan has been held broadly constant since July.

近几个月的出口大幅下挫以及其导致的中国南部大量失业已经引发了人们对中国政府将会使人民币贬值的猜测。在对美元连续升值了好几年后，人民币汇率从七月以来一直保持稳定。

However, not only would a yuan depreciation risk provoking a protectionist backlash from America’s new government, it would also do little to help Chinese producers. China’s problem is not competitiveness: its exports are holding up much better than those in South Korea or Taiwan, which fell by 17% and 42% respectively in the 12 months to December, despite weaker exchange rates. The best way for China to support its economy-and to help unwind global trade imbalances-is instead to bolster domestic demand.

然而，人民币贬值不仅仅会引发美国新政府的贸易保护主义反弹风险，而且对中国制造商也帮助甚微。中国的问题不是竞争力：中国出口的情况比韩国和台湾好多了，后边这两者分别在去年12月之前的一年内出口额分别下降了17％和42％，尽管其货币汇率仍在降低。中国支持其经济–而且帮助全球回复贸易均衡–最好的办法就是增长其国内需求。

One piece of good news this week is that following interest-rate cuts and the government’s scrapping of tight restrictions on bank lending, total bank loans jumped by 19% in the 12 months to December, up from growth of 14% last summer. Thanks to the healthier state of its banking system, China is perhaps the only big economy where credit has heated up rather than frozen in recent months. If sustained, this could help to support domestic spending-and hence imports. China’s economy certainly can not depend on exports over the next year.

本周的一个好消息是：随着降息和政府对银行放贷限制的摒弃，在去年12月之前的一年内，银行贷款总额增涨了19％，而去年夏天其增长率只是14％。多亏了其相比过去更加健康的银行体系，中国可能是最近几个月唯一一个增加信贷而不是紧缩信贷的大型经济体。如果这样持续下去的话，对于中国国内消费非常有利，于是对其进口也会帮助颇多。中国的经济在明年一年肯定不能依赖出口了。

译者：rushor       http://www.ecocn.org/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=16580&extra=page%3D1&page=1