[2008.05.17] Flying the flag 国旗飘扬

Aviation
航空业
Flying the flag
国旗飘扬

May 15th 2008
From The Economist print edition

Taking on Boeing and Airbus could be an expensive mistake for China
对抗波音和空客是一个错误,中国可能付出巨大的代价

“THE Chinese people must use their own two hands and their wisdom to manufacture internationally competitive large aircraft. It is the will of the nation and all its people to have a Chinese large aircraft soar into the blue sky.” With these visionary words Wen Jiabao, China’s prime minister, launched Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (CACC) this week. Its mission is nothing less than to mount a challenge to the global duopoly of Europe’s Airbus and America’s Boeing.
“中国人要用 自己的双手和智慧制造有国际竞争力的大飞机.让中国的大飞机飞上蓝天，既是国家的意志，也是全国人民的意志.”伴随着这些慷慨陈词,中国总理温家宝在本周 宣布中国商用飞机有限责任公司(CACC)正式成立.它的使命毫无疑问是挑战欧洲空客和美国波音的国际双头垄断.

It is the vast potential size of the Chinese domestic market that underpins Mr Wen’s confidence in CACC. Joseph Nadol of JPMorgan forecasts that despite high fuel costs, passenger growth will continue at a double-digit clip before levelling off at around 9% a year in 2012. Airbus calculates that between 2007 and 2026, China will require 2,800 new passenger and freight planes. Why shouldn’t China be making some of the planes to meet the demand generated by its booming economy?
中国国内市 场的巨大潜力增强了温先生的对CACC的信心.JP摩根的Joseph Nadol预测,尽管燃油成本很高,中国航空的乘客将会以两位数的速度增长,到2012年,将会稳定在年增长9%左右.空客预测,在2007年与2026 年之间,中国将需要2800架新的客机和货机.为什么中国不能制造飞机以满足其强势经济所带来的需求呢?

CACC has inherited the existing ARJ21 regional-jet programme from AVIC I, a state-owned aviation firm that is one of CACC’s main shareholders. The 70-seat jet, which will take to the air for the first time later this year, has already won 170 orders, nearly all from domestic Chinese airlines. CACC sees the ARJ21, and especially its forthcoming 90-seat variant, as a bridge to building a 200-seat rival to the single-aisle Airbus 320 and Boeing 737.
CACC从承接了中国航空工业第一集团公司(AVIC I)现有的ARJ21支线飞机项目,AVIC I是一个国有的航空公司,并且是CACC的主要股东之一.将在今年晚此时候首次试飞的70座喷气式飞机已经得到了170个订单,其中绝大多数来气于国内航 空公司.CACC希望以ARJ21-700飞机及90座的ARJ21-900飞机为跳板，在此基础上制造出能和空客320及波音737相抗衡的200座单 通道飞机。

China’s aviation industry has learnt a lot from making increasingly sophisticated parts for Boeing and Airbus over the past 20 years. China makes doors and some wing parts for the A320. It is also expected to build around 5% of the airframe of the new A350. Boeing sources not only doors and tailfins for the 737 from China, but also the rudder of its new 787 Dreamliner.
在过去的20年里,中国航空工业从为波音和空客制造日益复杂的部件中学到了很多.中国为A320制造门和机翼部件.它也可能为新的A350制造大约5%的机体.波音不仅将737的门和尾翼,还将新型的787 Dreamliner飞机的方向舵外包给中国制造.

Within a few months AVIC I and its smaller state-owned rival AVIC II will take an important next step. In a joint venture with Airbus, they will start producing up to four A320s a month on a final-assembly line in the northern port city of Tianjin. The Chinese make no attempt to hide their delight over how much they expect to learn, while Airbus regards the inevitable transfer of intellectual property as a necessary cost of doing business—which should amount to more than 100 sales a year in China for the foreseeable future.
在未来的几个月内,AVIC I将和另一家国有的规模较小的竞争对手AVIC II走出重要的一步棋.在北方港口天津的一家与空客的合资企业里,他们的总装线将会的一月内制造多达四架的A320.中国非常高兴他们可以从这个过程中学 到很多东西.而空客则将知识产权的转移视为做生意的必要成本—毕竟在可预见的将来他们每年将在中国出售一百架以上的飞机.

But even assuming the market stays buoyant and the massive technical and financial resources can be found to meet its goal of preparing a large plane for take-off by 2020, CACC’s chances of commercial success are dauntingly low.
但是即使假设市场不断增长,并且2020年大飞机成功起飞所需的大量技术和金融资源充分满足要求,CAAC取得商业成功的机会仍然出奇地低.

Wrapping a national flag around civil-aviation projects is a recipe for wasting money and dashing dreams. Last year Indonesia’s national champion, PTDI, was declared bankrupt by the courts after losing money on every plane and helicopter it built. Worse still, its inferior products were foisted on Indonesia’s airlines. Richard Aboulafia of Teal Group, an aviation consultancy, points out that the only example of an emerging-market producer succeeding is Embraer of Brazil—and for 30 years it too was “a cash-devouring horror”.
把民用航空项目包裹在国家的外衣下总会导致金钱的巨大 浪费和梦想的破灭.去年印尼的国有巨头PTDI被法院宣布破产,它制造的每一架飞机和直升机都在赔钱.更糟糕的是,它的劣质产品还被强行卖给了本国的航空 公司.航空咨询公司Teal Group的Richard Aboulafia说,在这个市场上唯一成功的新兴市场飞机公司是巴西的Emreaer公司—即使如此三十年来它也一直是一个“烧钱的巨大怪物”.

Although Boeing huffs and puffs about ensuring that China sticks to WTO rules banning market-distorting subsidies, both it and Airbus are studiously polite about the prospect of a new rival. Boeing says that competition has always been good for the business, and an Airbus spokesman describes it as “a natural ambition” for a country of China’s size to make big jets.
尽管波音对中国能否坚持WTO条款,禁止导致市场扭曲的各项补贴心存疑虑.它和空客都谨慎礼貌地对这家新对手的前景表示看好.波音认为竞争永远对市场有益.而空客的发言人说,像中国这样的大国,希望能够制造自己的大飞机是一个很“自然的雄心”.

Besides, by the time the Chinese have their A320/737 rival ready, Boeing and Airbus will be selling their next-generation single-aisle planes which will deliver a vast improvement in operating economics. And China’s largely state-owned but highly competitive airlines have a record of resisting government pressure to buy planes they do not want. In the 1990s McDonnell Douglas and AVIC I established an assembly line to produce the American firm’s ageing MD-90. Only two were built because Chinese airline bosses preferred newer models from Boeing and Airbus.
另 外，当中国有了可以与A320和737相对抗的飞机时，波音和空客都已经在出售操作成本更低的下一代单过道飞机了。中国的航空公司在很大程度上由国有资本控制，彼此之间竞争相当激烈，他们向来只购买自己喜欢的机型，而不理会来自政府的压力。1990年麦道公司(McDonnell Douglas)和AVIC建立了一条装配线，用来制造这家美国公司老迈的MD-90.结果这种飞机只制造了两架，因为中国的航空公司更喜欢波音和空客的 新机型。

A final reason to question whether the industrial policy behind the creation of CACC makes sense is that manufacturing big commercial aircraft has ceased to be a national enterprise. Boeing and Airbus increasingly rely on global supply chains and risk-sharing partners, some of which are involved from the design stage to produce not just components, but entire sections of planes. Paradoxically, no country is better placed to gain from these developments than China. The new distributed model has had some problems, as the delays to the 787 show, but neither Boeing nor Airbus would dream of going back to the old way of making planes. The Chinese insist they are playing a long game. The question is whether they should bother to play at all.
质 疑建立CACC公司这一行业政策的合理性的最后一个理由是，制造商用大飞机已经不再是一个国家的事情了。波间和空客日益依赖全球的生产链和风险共担的合作 者，其中涉及从设计到制造零部件甚至飞机某一整体结构等各个方面。而在这方面，中国比其他任何国家获得的利益更多。787的跳票说明新的飞机制造模式的确 存在一些问题，但无论是波音还是空客都不可能回到原先制造飞机的老路上去。中国坚称他们实施的是一个长远计划，但现在的问题是这个计划到底有没有必要。

译者：xsj191 http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=11433&extra=page%3D1