[2008.11.01] 美国大选：时机已到

The presidential election
总统大选

It’s time
时机已到！

Oct 30th 2008
From The Economist print edition

America should take a chance and make Barack Obama the next leader of the free world
美国应抓住机会推选奥巴马为自由世界的下一任领导人

IT IS impossible to forecast how important any presidency will be. Back in 2000 America stood tall as the undisputed superpower, at peace with a generally admiring world. The main argument was over what to do with the federal government’s huge budget surplus. Nobody foresaw the seismic events of the next eight years. When Americans go to the polls next week the mood will be very different. The United States is unhappy, divided and foundering both at home and abroad. Its self-belief and values are under attack.
预测任何一位下届总统将产生的重大影响都是不现实的。回顾2000年，美国居高临下，既是一个无可争议的超级大国，也是一个普遍受到赞誉的和平国家。 当时争论的主要问题是如何处理联邦政府的巨额预算盈余。没有人料到了其后8年之间发生的一系列震撼全球的大事件。当美国人下周走向投票地点时，心情将与8 年前完全不同。美国不满现状，意见分裂，在国内、国际均陷入重重困境。它的自信心和价值观都受到了冲击。

For all the shortcomings of the campaign, both John McCain and Barack Obama offer hope of national redemption. Now America has to choose between them. The Economist does not have a vote, but if it did, it would cast it for Mr Obama. We do so wholeheartedly: the Democratic candidate has clearly shown that he offers the better chance of restoring America’s self-confidence. But we acknowledge it is a gamble. Given Mr Obama’s inexperience, the lack of clarity about some of his beliefs and the prospect of a stridently Democratic Congress, voting for him is a risk. Yet it is one America should take, given the steep road ahead.
尽管大选有种种不尽人意之处，参议员麦凯恩和奥巴马两人都有希望使美国重振旗鼓，走出困境。现在，到了美国必须两选其一的时刻。《经济学人》没有投票权，但若有的话，会投给奥巴马。我们是真心诚意的：这位民主党候选人的表现清楚地表明，他是重振美国自信更好选择。当然，我们得承认这是一场赌博。鉴于奥巴马议员缺乏经验，在对某些个人信念以及喧嚣的民主党（控制的）国会前景等问题上含糊不清，投票给他冒一定风险。然而，面临陡峭前程，美国不应回避这场风险。

Thinking about 2009 and 2017
为2009和2017年着想

The immediate focus, which has dominated the campaign, looks daunting enough: repairing America’s economy and its international reputation. The financial crisis is far from finished. The United States is at the start of a painful recession. Some form of further fiscal stimulus is needed, though estimates of the budget deficit next year already spiral above $1 trillion. Some 50m Americans have negligible health-care cover. Abroad, even though troops are dying in two countries, the cack-handed way in which George Bush has prosecuted his war on terror has left America less feared by its enemies and less admired by its friends than it once was.

当下主导着竞选的迫切焦点令人忧虑不已：如何恢复美国经济及其国际声誉。金融危机还远不见尽头，美国实际上刚进入一场不堪的衰退。虽然明年的财政赤字预算已螺旋般地升到1万亿美元以上，它仍然需要加强某些财政刺激措施。大约5000万美国人的医疗保险微乎其微。在国外，美国士兵还在两个国家的土地上继续伤亡，而布什拙劣的反恐战争已使敌人愈加有恃无恐，而令盟友热情渐失，昔日不再。

Yet there are also longer-term challenges, worth stressing if only because they have been so ignored on the campaign. Jump forward to 2017, when the next president will hope to relinquish office. A combination of demography and the rising costs of America’s huge entitlement programmes-Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid-will be starting to bankrupt the country. Abroad a greater task is already evident: welding the new emerging powers to the West. That is not just a matter of handling the rise of India and China, drawing them into global efforts, such as curbs on climate change; it means reselling economic and political freedom to a world that too quickly associates American capitalism with Lehman Brothers and American justice with Guantánamo Bay. This will take patience, fortitude, salesmanship and strategy.
而且，前面还有长期性的挑战。在竞选中这些挑战被忽略了，因而更值得强调一下。如果随时光飞至2017年，时任总统可能宁愿放弃白宫权杖，因为届时人口上升的压力加上美国庞大的权益方案（社保、医保和公共医疗补助）的耗费将开始导致国家破产。此外，更重大的国际事务也已清楚地摆在面前：即将新兴权力与西方世界联合。这不仅是指面对印度和中国的崛起，把他们拉入解决全球性问题（如限制气候变化）的行列中来；它还意味着美国需要重新包装和推广它的自由政治和自由经济理念。如今各国已很容易把美国资本主义与雷曼兄弟、美国司法与关塔那摩湾联系在一起。这一切都需要耐心、毅力、技巧和策略。

At the beginning of this election year, there were strong arguments against putting another Republican in the White House. A spell in opposition seemed apt punishment for the incompetence, cronyism and extremism of the Bush presidency. Conservative America also needs to recover its vim. Somehow Ronald Reagan’s party of western individualism and limited government has ended up not just increasing the size of the state but turning it into a tool of southern-fried moralism.
今年年初，反对共和党人士入主白宫的呼声十分强烈。反对派意欲以此作为对布什任内能力不足、任人唯亲和极端主义政策的惩罚。美国保守派也需要复苏它的活力。在奉行西方个人主义和有限政府的里根式政党的治下，政府机构不减反增，并成了”南部油炸”式【注：右翼保守、极端、不宽容等等】道德工具。

The selection of Mr McCain as the Republicans’ candidate was a powerful reason to reconsider. Mr McCain has his faults: he is an instinctive politician, quick to judge and with a sharp temper. And his age has long been a concern (how many global companies in distress would bring in a new 72-year-old boss?). Yet he has bravely taken unpopular positions-for free trade, immigration reform, the surge in Iraq, tackling climate change and campaign-finance reform. A western Republican in the Reagan mould, he has a long record of working with both Democrats and America’s allies.
选择麦凯恩为共和党候选人使人有足够的理由再三思量。麦凯恩有其缺点：他是一种凭直觉办事的政治家，判断匆促、脾气暴躁。他的年龄也一直成为人们顾虑的理由（在危机时刻，有几家全球性公司聘用72岁的新老板？）。但他能勇敢地站在不受欢迎的立场，鼓吹自由贸易、改革移民法、增兵伊拉克、重视气候变化及改革竞选基金。作为一名里根模式的西部共和党人，他有长期与民主党和美国盟友合作的记录。

If only the real John McCain had been running
如果 “真实“的麦凯恩参竞选

That, however, was Senator McCain; the Candidate McCain of the past six months has too often seemed the victim of political sorcery, his good features magically inverted, his bad ones exaggerated. The fiscal conservative who once tackled Mr Bush over his unaffordable tax cuts now proposes not just to keep the cuts, but to deepen them. The man who denounced the religious right as “agents of intolerance” now embraces theocratic culture warriors. The campaigner against ethanol subsidies (who had a better record on global warming than most Democrats) came out in favour of a petrol-tax holiday. It has not all disappeared: his support for free trade has never wavered. Yet rather than heading towards the centre after he won the nomination, Mr McCain moved to the right.
然而，这只是曾经的麦凯恩参议员。在过去六个月中，候选人麦凯恩则常常似乎成了政治戏法的受害者。他的优点奇怪地转了向，缺点反而加深了。这位曾经批评布什的减税政策不堪负荷的财政保守主义者，如今提议不但要继续，而且要更进一步减税。反对乙醇补贴的环保卫士如今站出来支持”汽油税假日”，（原先在全球变暖问题上，他比大多数民主党付出了更多的关注）。他曾经谴责鼓吹宗教权利的人为”不宽容的代言人”，现在却伸出双臂拥抱神权斗士。当然，他的优点也没有全然消失：他仍然一如既往地支持自由贸易。但自从赢得提名后，麦凯恩没有移向中间，反而愈往右偏了。

Meanwhile his temperament, always perhaps his weak spot, has been found wanting. Sometimes the seat-of-the-pants method still works: his gut reaction over Georgia-to warn Russia off immediately-was the right one. Yet on the great issue of the campaign, the financial crisis, he has seemed all at sea, emitting panic and indecision. Mr McCain has never been particularly interested in economics, but, unlike Mr Obama, he has made little effort to catch up or to bring in good advisers (Doug Holtz-Eakin being the impressive exception).
同时，他的脾气（这也许始终会是他的弱点）被视为不合格之处。有时候他凭直觉的处事方式是正确的–他认为应当警告俄罗斯立即停止进驻格鲁吉亚，这点上他没犯错。然而，在出谋定夺更加宏大的难题（如金融危机）时，他表现出慌张和犹豫，似乎有些不知所措。麦凯恩从来没对经济学表示过多少兴趣，但他与奥巴马不同，他很少去努力学习弥补或聘请贤士（道格拉斯霍尔茨-埃金是一个令人吃惊的特例）。

The choice of Sarah Palin epitomised the sloppiness. It is not just that she is an unconvincing stand-in, nor even that she seems to have been chosen partly for her views on divisive social issues, notably abortion. Mr McCain made his most important appointment having met her just twice.
选择佩琳做为竞选搭档突显了麦凯恩的行事草率。这样说不仅是因为佩林是个难以令人信服的替补，甚至也不是因为她是由于某些观点（比如她有关人工流产一类引起分歧的社会问题）而入选。麦凯恩仅凭与佩林两次见面，便做出了他最重要的委任决定。

Ironically, given that he first won over so many independents by speaking his mind, the case for Mr McCain comes down to a piece of artifice: vote for him on the assumption that he does not believe a word of what he has been saying. Once he reaches the White House, runs this argument, he will put Mrs Palin back in her box, throw away his unrealistic tax plan and begin negotiations with the Democratic Congress. That is plausible; but it is a long way from the convincing case that Mr McCain could have made. Had he become president in 2000 instead of Mr Bush, the world might have had fewer problems. But this time it is beset by problems, and Mr McCain has not proved that he knows how to deal with them.
麦凯恩最初是通过说出自己的想法赢得了独立选民的支持，但具有讽刺意味的是，他的案例应归结为计谋的胜利：投票给他是基于他自己都不相信自己说过的话这一假设。持这类论点的人声称：一旦麦凯恩入主白宫，他就会一脚踢开佩琳，抛开毫无现实意义的税收计划，并且开始与民主党控制的国会进行谈判。上述推论是合理的，但麦凯恩不大可能这样做。假如他在2000年取代了布什成为总统，也许今天世界上的问题会减少些许。但今天的世界陷入了重重困境，麦凯恩却并没有表现出他的对应能力。

Is Mr Obama any better? Most of the hoopla about him has been about what he is, rather than what he would do. His identity is not as irrelevant as it sounds. Merely by becoming president, he would dispel many of the myths built up about America: it would be far harder for the spreaders of hate in the Islamic world to denounce the Great Satan if it were led by a black man whose middle name is Hussein; and far harder for autocrats around the world to claim that American democracy is a sham. America’s allies would rally to him: the global electoral college on our website shows a landslide in his favour. At home he would salve, if not close, the ugly racial wound left by America’s history and lessen the tendency of American blacks to blame all their problems on racism.
同为总统候选人的奥巴马是否就更胜一筹呢？相关他的喧嚷大多围绕他的身份，而不是他未来的计划。自然，他的身份并非无关紧要。单单在成为第一位黑人总统这点上，他将消除许多有关美国的谣传：在伊斯兰世界中传播撒仇恨者，将更难把魔鬼撒旦与一位中间名是侯赛因的黑人总统连在一起；各国的独裁政权，将更难以声称美国的民主是摆设。美国的盟友为他助势：《经济学人》的全球选举团（global electoral college）网站上显示，奥巴马具有压倒性优势。在国内，即使不能治愈美国历史遗留下来的丑陋种族伤口，奥巴马起码是贴药膏。他能减少美国某些黑人的种种藉口。这些人凡事责备”种族歧视”。

So Mr Obama’s star quality will be useful to him as president. But that alone is not enough to earn him the job. Charisma will not fix Medicare nor deal with Iran. Can he govern well? Two doubts present themselves: his lack of executive experience; and the suspicion that he is too far to the left.
因此，奥巴马的明星气质有助于他任职总统。当然，仅藉于此他并无法获得总统职位。个人魅力既不能修复医保问题也不能对付伊朗。他能担起治理国家的重任吗？奥巴马面临着双重疑虑：一、缺乏行政经验; 二、过于偏左。

There is no getting around the fact that Mr Obama’s résumé is thin for the world’s biggest job. But the exceptionally assured way in which he has run his campaign is a considerable comfort. It is not just that he has more than held his own against Mr McCain in the debates. A man who started with no money and few supporters has out-thought, out-organised and outfought the two mightiest machines in American politics-the Clintons and the conservative right.
应聘这份世界上最高的职位，奥巴马的履历显得轻浅是不争的事实。但通过大量安抚手段参与竞选战争的方式却让奥巴马格外自信，这一点不光体现在与 麦凯恩的辩论中奥巴马可以很好的坚持己见。一个白手起家的竞选者在参选初期极度缺乏支持者，但通过深思熟虑、巧妙安排和无畏斗争，奥巴马击败了美国政坛上 两个巨人级的竞选机器–克林顿家族和保守的极右势力。

Political fire, far from rattling Mr Obama, seems to bring out the best in him: the furore about his (admittedly ghastly) preacher prompted one of the most thoughtful speeches of the campaign. On the financial crisis his performance has been as assured as Mr McCain’s has been febrile. He seems a quick learner and has built up an impressive team of advisers, drawing in seasoned hands like Paul Volcker, Robert Rubin and Larry Summers. Of course, Mr Obama will make mistakes; but this is a man who listens, learns and manages well.
政治火拼非但不能激怒奥巴马，反而几乎激出他最好的一面：他对牧师（坦诚地说此兄很糟）的愤怒促成了他一篇最深思熟虑的竞选演说。 在金融危机中，他自信的表现与麦凯恩的头脑发热形成鲜明对比。他学习迅速，已经建立了自己的资深顾问团，吸收了如保罗沃尔克、罗伯特鲁宾和拉里萨默斯 等经验丰富的得力人手。当然，奥巴马也会出错，但是他愿听好学且管理有方。

It is hard too nowadays to depict him as soft when it comes to dealing with America’s enemies. Part of Mr Obama’s original appeal to the Democratic left was his keenness to get American troops out of Iraq; but since the primaries he has moved to the centre, pragmatically saying the troops will leave only when the conditions are right. His determination to focus American power on Afghanistan, Pakistan and proliferation was prescient. He is keener to talk to Iran than Mr McCain is- but that makes sense, providing certain conditions are met.
在对付美国敌人的问题上，同样很难说他的立场是软弱的。奥巴马竞选初始表示坚决要美国从伊拉克撤军，以获得民主党左翼的支持。但自初选以来，他已经移向中间，务实地表示只有在条件适当时才会撤军。他决心把美军重点放在阿富汗、巴基斯坦和核扩散上，这都很有预见性。他比麦凯恩更希望与伊朗对话–在特定条件下，这样更合情理。

Our main doubts about Mr Obama have to do with the damage a muddle-headed Democratic Congress might try to do to the economy. Despite the protectionist rhetoric that still sometimes seeps into his speeches, Mr Obama would not sponsor a China-bashing bill. But what happens if one appears out of Congress? Worryingly, he has a poor record of defying his party’s baronies, especially the unions. His advisers insist that Mr Obama is too clever to usher in a new age of over-regulation, that he will stop such nonsense getting out of Congress, that he is a political chameleon who would move to the centre in Washington. But the risk remains that on economic matters the centre that Mr Obama moves to would be that of his party, not that of the country as a whole.
我们对奥巴马最大的担心在于，他必须面对由一帮头脑庸钝的民主党把持的国会所可能制造的经济危害。尽管他的演讲时而透出贸易保护主义的论调，表示奥巴马不会支持抨击中国的提案。但如果提案出自国会的话，他是否会改变态度？令人担忧的是，他的履历上鲜有反抗本党，尤其是工会领导的记录。他的顾问们坚持说，奥巴马不会愚蠢到开辟一个过度监管的新时期，他将制止无稽之谈走出国会；此外，他这条政治变色龙将在进入华府后靠拢中间立场。尽管如此，经济问题的风险并没有消除–奥巴马所靠拢的中心将是民主党而不是整个美国的中心。

He has earned it
实至名归

So Mr Obama in that respect is a gamble. But the same goes for Mr McCain on at least as many counts, not least the possibility of President Palin. And this cannot be another election where the choice is based merely on fear. In terms of painting a brighter future for America and the world, Mr Obama has produced the more compelling and detailed portrait. He has campaigned with more style, intelligence and discipline than his opponent. Whether he can fulfil his immense potential remains to be seen. But Mr Obama deserves the presidency.
因此，从这一角度说，选择奥巴马身上仍是一场赌博。但选择麦凯恩也有很多问题，尤其是佩林有可能出任副总统。此次选举不应该成为又一次仅仅基于恐惧儿作出的选择。奥巴马为美国和世界的光明未来所绘制的蓝图更令人信服，也更加详细。较麦凯恩而言，奥巴马更具风范、才干和操守。至于他是否能尽其惊人魄力达到目标，人们还将拭目以待。但奥巴马当选乃实至名归。

译者：skittos   http://www.ecocn.org/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=15189&extra=page%3D1