Russia’s new president
俄罗斯新总统
Enter, pursued by a new bear
新熊入主克里姆林宫
May 8th 2008
From The Economist print edition
The West should hang tough with President Dmitry Medvedev
西方应对新总统梅德韦德夫持强硬立场
路透社
IT HAS been a busy week in Moscow. First Dmitry Medvedev was inaugurated president. A day later his predecessor, Vladimir Putin, became his new prime minister. Then on May 9th Moscow planned to mark the annual Victory Day celebrations with the first parade of tanks and nuclear missiles through Red Square since the end of the cold war. What should the watching West make of all this?
本周莫斯科忙碌非凡，先是总统梅德韦德夫正式上任，次日，前任总统普京也宣誓就任新任总理。五月九日，俄罗斯计划举行盛大游行庆祝胜利日，届时，坦克和核弹将穿越红场，这在冷战结束以来，实属首次。冷眼旁观的西方应当对此采取如何应对措施？
One of these three events seems to offer more hope than the other two. Mr Medvedev is the first Russian leader since the tsars to have come from neither the security services nor the old Communist Party. And judging by what he says, including in his inaugural speech, he has some liberal instincts and an understanding of why the rule of law matters. Yet he also arrives in office weighed down by two troubling burdens.
这三起事件中，似乎有一件更令人期待。自沙皇以来，国家领导人要么来自安全部门，要么来出身于以前的共产党，而梅德韦德夫开启先河，不在此列。从他的言辞，包括他的就职演说来看，他似乎与生俱来就有自由信仰，而且对法制的重要性也有自己的看法。然而，上任之际他却因为“两座大山”不堪重负。
The first is Mr Putin. Moscow has been rife with speculation about who will really be in charge ever since Mr Putin chose his long-time protégé and lawyer as his successor. For now, the answer appears to be either that nobody knows, or that it will still be Mr Putin. In the run-up to the inauguration, Mr Medvedev has been far less visible than Mr Putin. Even at this week’s ceremony, Mr Putin seemed the dominant figure. This is by no means a real transfer of power.
第一座大山是普京，打自普京选择与其相处甚久的门生和律师作为其继任者，各种关于谁将拥有实权的猜测就充斥着莫斯科的大街小巷。目前，答案似乎无人知晓， 也有可能普京将继续操控实权。在竞选的冲刺中，梅德韦德夫与普京相比，黯然失色。甚至在本周的欢庆盛典上，普京似乎才是真正的焦点人物–这绝不是真正权力的交接。
Mr Medvedev’s second burden is his inheritance. Mr Putin became acting president, on the last day of 1999, at an auspicious time for Russia. The economy was booming after the 1998 devaluation, oil prices were climbing and ordinary Russians (and the outside world) seemed relieved to have stability and order in place of the chaos that marked the final years of Boris Yeltsin’s presidency.
压在梅德韦德夫身上的第二座大山是前任留下的遗产。1999年的岁末，普京生逢其时，在俄罗斯兴旺之时成为代总统。自1998年石油经历了一轮贬值之后，油价一路攀升，普通俄罗斯人（包括海外）告别了叶利钦任期结束时那几年的混乱，拥有了稳定和井然有序的生活，他们对此颇为宽慰。
In contrast, Mr Medvedev comes in when the economic outlook is gloomier and inflation is soaring. The oil price seems unlikely to keep going up and there are ominous signs that Russia is having serious problems sustaining its oil output . Moreover, Russia’s relations with the West have hit new lows—which may explain Moscow’s drum-beating Victory Day parade.
相反，梅德韦德夫上任之时，恰逢经济前景开始暗淡，通货膨胀居高不下。油价似乎不大可能持续走高，种种不详迹象显示俄罗斯难以继续保持其石油产出，而且，俄罗斯与西方的关系也跌入更深的低谷——这也许能解释莫斯科大张旗鼓地举行胜利日游行。
Do bears shoot in the woods?
密林之中，熊会暗地放矢？
Despite this, many in the West are itching to extend an olive branch to the new president. The Kremlin’s power is immense, so even if Mr Medvedev starts in Mr Putin’s shadow, he may in time emerge from it. It is always tempting to try a soft approach on a new Russian president, just as it was with Mr Putin. But this time, Western political leaders should be far more cautious.
尽管如此，许多西方国家跃跃欲试地向新总统伸出了橄榄枝，克里姆林宫权力巨大，所以即便梅德韦德夫上任便笼罩在普京的阴影之下，假以时日，他将有可能走出 这个阴影。 西方对新任的俄罗斯总统采取柔弱政策总是很吸引人的，正如他们对待当年的普京。但是这次，西方应当更为谨慎。
There is no sign that Russia is moving in a more liberal and democratic direction at home, or that it is going to be more accommodating to the West abroad. It seems far more likely that it will continue to play the divide-and-rule game started by Mr Putin, who deftly exploited differences among European Union leaders, in particular.
没有迹象显示俄罗斯正驶向一个更加自由与民主的国度，抑或对西方变得更加包容与接纳。似乎更有可能的是俄罗斯将继续玩普京首创的“各个击破”的把戏。普京长袖善舞，尤善利用西方各国分歧为己用。
The best approach to Mr Medvedev will be to heed what he does, not what he says. For example, if he gave parole to Mikhail Khodorkovsky, an oligarch imprisoned without even a pretence at a fair trial, dropped Russia’s belligerent posture towards Georgia, began to open up state-run television to alternative voices, and initiated a crackdown on corruption, then it would be right to respond in a friendly fashion.
要对付梅德韦杰夫，留意其一举一动乃是上上之策，而非关注其言辞。例如，如果他给Mikhail Khodorkovsky，这位关押时没有接受一次哪怕是虚假审判的石油大亨，一个保释的机会；放弃对格鲁吉亚动辄刀剑相向的态度；允许国营电视台发出不同的声音；开展新一轮反腐斗争，那么西欧以友好姿态给予回应才是可取之策。
But hard evidence is needed before taking such a step. Above all, Western leaders must be united. Medved means bear in Russian—and the worst way to respond to a bear is to display overt weakness or to scarper in different directions.
但走这步棋之前，需要收集大量确凿的事实。毕竟，西方世界的领导人必须团结起来。“梅德韦德“在俄语里是熊的意思，遇到熊时，完全暴露出自己的弱点，或者四散逃窜，无疑乃是下下之策。
译者: vincent1986 http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=11311&extra=page%3D1&page=1