[2008.10.11]非洲: 仍有希望

Africa
非洲

There is hope  仍有希望

Oct 9th 2008
From The Economist print edition

Despite the persistence of Africa’s natural and man-made horrors, the latest trend is cheeringly positive
尽管上帝和人类给非洲大陆带来余威不断的恐怖，但最近的积极趋势还是令人欣慰的

UNTIL the past few weeks of global turmoil, Africa’s doughty band of boosters were feeling they at last had something to smile about. After four decades of political and economic stagnation that kept most of their 800m-odd people in poverty and gloom, the continent’s 48 sub-Saharan countries have been growing for the past five years at a perky overall rate of 5% or so. If they maintain this pace or even bump it up a bit, Africa still has a chance of taking off. Now, with commodity prices likely to fall, world markets sure to shrivel and Western aid set to plateau or even dip, Africa, though more isolated from the global economy than other parts of the world, is bound to suffer from its ill breeze. But maybe not as badly. Once described by this newspaper, perhaps with undue harshness, as “the hopeless continent”, it could yet confound its legion of gloomsters and show that its oft-heralded renaissance is not just another false dawn prompted by the passing windfall of booming commodity prices, but the start of something solid and sustainable. Despite its manifold and persistent problems of lousy governments and erratic climates (see article), Africa has a chance of rising.
全世界在过去的数周里都陷入了一片混乱，而非洲那些勇敢的支持者团体感到他们笑到了最后。长达40年的政治和经济停滞使超过8亿的非洲人民陷于贫穷和沮丧中，撒南非洲的48个国家在过去的5年中的整体增长率达到了5%左右，如此的增速足以让他们满怀信心。如果可以保持这个增速，甚至再将增幅提高一点儿，那么非洲经济还有腾飞的可能。当前商品价格下跌趋势明显、国际市场必然萎缩、西方国家的援助遭遇瓶颈甚至有小幅跌落；尽管非洲与全球经济的联系虽然不如其他地区密切，但仍然受到全球经济病恙的牵连；只不过没有那么严重。非洲曾经被本刊过分的形容为“无望大陆”，他仍可能令一大票悲观论者满头雾水；此次与以往常常提前宣布的复兴不同，不是商品价格意外的短暂繁荣带来的又一个黎明假相，而是坚实持久的变化。尽管非洲面临着糟糕政府和多变天气的问题，他还是有上升的可能。

A long way to go
前路漫漫

Pessimists have plenty of evidence to call on. There have been spurts of growth before, especially when commodity prices have risen sharply. But when those prices have fallen, growth has fizzled. Africa’s few recent successes tend to be set against a previous history of disaster. Ghana, for instance, is often cited as one of the most hopeful cases, but at independence in 1957 it was nearly as well off as South Korea; now, despite its recent bounce, it is still some 30 times poorer in wealth per person. The lively growth in several other hopeful spots—for instance, Mozambique, Rwanda and Uganda—must likewise be set against the horrors of their quite recent past. In fact, the sole country in Africa with a record of consistently strong political and economic progress is Botswana.
悲观主义者有充分的证据进行呼吁，因为非洲曾经历过迸发式的发展，特别是在物价飙升的时候；但当物价回落的时候，发展就以失败终结了。非洲过往的失败历史 几乎抵消掉了近期不多的成功成果。就以常被引用为最有希望的加纳为例：1957年独立的时候拥有几乎与南韩相差无几的经济形势，但目前虽然经过反弹，人均 收入还是低于世界品均水平的30倍。其他几个增长活跃的希望国度，比如莫桑比克、卢旺达和乌干达，也同样面连着近期恐怖事件的消减作用。事实上非洲大陆唯 一拥有持续稳定的政治和经济进步的国家是波斯瓦纳。

Many basic indices remain grim. Africans’ lifespan is still declining, owing largely to the scourge of AIDS, 60% of whose worldwide victims are African. A recent World Bank paper was guarded as to whether the African surge would last. Most of the quicker growth, it notes, is due to soaring revenues enjoyed by just eight sub-Saharan African countries blessed with oil. A third of Africa’s countries—by far the highest proportion in any continent—are trapped in civil wars or cycles of violent unrest. The two biggest in area, Sudan and Congo, are ravaged by strife and misgovernment. Zimbabwe, once a jewel of southern Africa, is still a nightmare, despite a recent agreement to forge a government of national unity. The World Bank paper bemoans Africa’s standards of governance.
不少的基础指数仍然严酷：非洲人的寿命还在持续下降，苦难的根源大部分来自艾滋病，全球60%的受害者是非洲人；世行最近的报告提醒要关注非洲形势高涨的 可持续性：该报告注意到大部分的高速增长都是受到撒南非洲国家原油高收入的推动。非洲大陆三分之一的国家都陷入了内战和无休止的暴力中，这个比例没有其他任何大陆能及。疆土最为辽阔的苏丹和刚果受到冲突和恶政的蹂躏。津巴布韦曾经是南部非洲的一颗宝石，尽管最近同意组建一个全国团结政府，但目前还是一场没有醒来的恶梦。世行报告对非洲国家的执政标准感到非常遗憾。

Perhaps even more worrying, in the past year or so, three of Africa’s leading countries have had heavy setbacks. Nigeria’s election was the shoddiest since the country’s return to civilian rule in 1999; Kenya, east Africa’s hub, succumbed to ethnic mayhem after a disputed poll; and South Africa, easily the sub-Saharan continent’s leading power in every way, producing one-third of its entire GDP, has entered an ugly phase of politics, authoritarian if not yet undemocratic, just when it should be setting an example of tolerant pluralism to the rest of Africa. The recent violence against black foreigners is a reminder that the bottom third of South Africans still face gnawing poverty.
在过去一年或者更多的时间里，领跑非洲的三个国家出现巨幅退步，该现象更令人忧虑。刚结束的尼日利亚大选是 该国1999年回归文官统治以来最差的；东非港口国家肯尼亚在有争议的选举以后，已经屈服于种族混乱；南非在各个方面都无疑成为撒南非洲国家的领军人物，贡献了1/3的GDP；但是政治上却进入了一个非常丑陋的层面——在需要他为非洲其他地区树立包容典范的时候他却进入了独裁阶段，如果说还没有达到不民主 的话。最近针对黑非洲的暴力或噢对那个提醒人们，南非三分之一的人口还将面对贫穷的阵痛。

All the same, the boosters’ case is stronger than before. Political freedom, however patchy, is commoner than it was a generation ago. Two-thirds of African countries now limit presidential terms; at least 14 leaders (with a few bad exceptions) have felt obliged to step down as a result. Multi-party systems, however fraught, are more usual; the notion of political accountability and choice is more widely accepted. The media, partly because of the internet, are livelier. The latest index of African governance funded by Mo Ibrahim, a Sudanese-born telecoms mogul, suggests a general improvement.
支持者的呼声也同样达到了史无前例的强烈。尽管政治上的自由还不是很协调，但比十年前已经普遍了很多：三分之二的非洲国家限制了总统的任期，结果至少14 个政治首领被迫走下政台，当然还是有少数例外；尽管多党制体系不完善，但却变得平常了很多；政治责任及政治选择已经被更为广泛的接受。部分受到互联网的影响，现今的媒体更加活跃。最新的依布拉欣非洲国家管治指数显示了一些整体的改善，该指数由苏丹电信巨头莫.依布拉辛资助。

The presumption of state control under the rubric of “African socialism” (an illusory third way) has been junked. Most local leaders accept that Africa must join the global economy to prosper, however shaky it looks right now. The mobile-phone revolution has hugely helped Africans, especially poor peasants and traders. Banking systems are modernising and mortgages more readily offered to an emerging middle class. Businessmen around the world have been investing more, especially in Africa’s better-governed countries. Even those that lack natural wealth have grown a bit faster. The spectacular advent of China into Africa’s market is, on balance, a bonus.
以“非洲社会主义”为红色标题的国家管控假想已经卡壳了，那只是幻想中的第三种路线。尽管非洲目前极端动荡，但本地领袖都接受非洲必须加入全球经济体系并 走向繁荣这个理念。移动电话革命对非洲人起到了巨大的帮助作用，特别是那些贫穷的农民和小商贩；银行系统实现了现代化，按揭贷款已经为日渐成形的中产阶级 蓄势待发；全球商人在非洲的投资额也在增加，特别是管理较为规范的国家；即使那些缺乏自然字换得国家也取得了较快的发展。而中国在非洲市场的惊人投资对后者无疑是额外的收获。

Another report, co-sponsored by the World Bank, gently dissents from the certitudes of the “Washington consensus” that pure free marketry could cure all, and that Africa must just open up to trade, tighten its fiscal strings and sell off the state. One size in varied Africa does not fit all. The rich world could, for instance, offer time-limited trade preferences.
另一份由世行共同资助的报告对“华盛顿共识”确认的事情含蓄的表达了反对，华盛顿共识认为单纯自由的市场机制可以挽救一切，同时非洲必须全面放开 贸易，绷紧金融这根弦，廉价销售掉国有资产。但单一标准不可能适合非洲所有的国家，发达国家提供的贸易喜好带有明显的时效性。

Feel each stone as you cross the river
摸着石头过河

Other devices could help too. America’s Africa Growth and Opportunity Act of 2000 has spurred African exports by dropping American tariffs. Another promising new mechanism is the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, a voluntary code that a score of African countries have adopted, with governments and foreign firms accounting openly for their dealings—in contrast to mineral-rich Congo, whose government ludicrously claimed in 2006 to have received only $86,000 in mineral earnings. The creation of national savings funds in commodity-flush countries is another good idea. On the farming front, issuing individual land titles, no easy task in a continent where much land is still communally held, is another. Pragmatism often beats dogma.
还有另一个策略也能帮上忙。2000年美国提 出的《非洲增长与机遇法案》通过降低关税而刺激了非洲的出口。近期另一很有前途的机制是“采矿业透明度行动计划”，这是部分非洲国家自愿实行的准则，政府 和外国公司公开解释他们的交易。这与矿藏丰富的刚果形成了鲜明的对比，可笑的刚果政府宣布2006年矿业收入只有86000美元。在商品充足的国家设立国 家储蓄基金也是另一个好主意。农业方面应该实现土地私有，因为在一块大部分土地公有的大陆上，想做点什么都不容易。实用主义总是可以击败教条主义。

So Africa has a rare chance to break out of its poverty trap. It would be hard even if governments were honest and efficient. Sadly, most are still not. Amid all the grim drawbacks of climate, disease, illiteracy and ethnic division, bad and corrupt government is still by far the biggest. But the news overall is cheerier. And the rich world, troubled as it is, must never give up in its effort to help the poor one to stand on its own feet
因此非洲冲破贫穷陷阱的机率很小，即使政府从一开始就诚实高效，难度依然很大；更何况大多数政府仍然不能象上面说的那样。在气候、疾病、不开化和种族分裂 这些令人沮丧的问题中，无德且腐败的政府仍旧是最严重的。不过整体形势略有好转，并且尽管发达国家目前也是问题缠身，却绝不能放弃帮助穷兄弟自食其力的努力。

译者：Tidehunter   http://www.ecocn.org/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=14674&extra=page%3D1