[2008.09.06] 德国银行业：笑到最后

German banking
德国银行业

The last laugh
笑到最后

Sep 4th 2008
From The Economist print edition

Commerzbank’s purchase of Dresdner holds lessons for other dealmakers
德国商业银行（Commerzbank）对德瑞斯顿银行(Dresdner)的收购值得其他生意人借鉴

NOT so long ago, staff at Dresdner Kleinwort, the investment-banking arm of Dresdner, a German bank, used to refer to Commerzbank, a rival, as “Comedy bank”. No one is laughing now. On August 31st Allianz, an insurer, gave up the struggle to make anything of its 2001 purchase of Dresdner and sold the bank to Commerzbank for 9.8 billion euro ($14.2 billion). The new entity will concentrate on its German retail and business customers. Investment-banking will shrink, with the axe expected to fall hardest in London.

不久前，德瑞斯顿银行的投行分支德累斯顿-克莱沃特（Dresdner Kleinwort）的员工谈及德国商业银行这一竞争对手时，还将其冠以”滑稽的银行”， 但现在没人嘲笑德国商业银行了。8月31日，安联保险集团放弃它2001年收购的德瑞斯顿银行并将其以98亿欧元（142亿美元）价格卖给德国商业银行。并购后的新实体将主要致力于向德国方面的个人和企业客户提供金融服务。其投行业务将缩水，预计其对在伦敦的德累斯顿-克莱沃特部门要大刀阔斧。

The initial reaction of shareholders was unenthusiastic: shares in Commerzbank fell by more than 11% the day after the deal was announced whereas those in Allianz, which will eventually end up with a 30% stake in the enlarged bank, edged up marginally. Among other things, investors fretted that Commerzbank was paying too much for Dresdner; that the deal increased its exposure to toxic assets; and that shrinking the investment bank could be costly in a falling market. In times this febrile, such nervousness is understandable, but it is hard to question the long-term business logic behind the merger, which will create Germany’s largest retail bank by number of branches (see chart), make Commerzbank the market leader with Mittelstand companies, and enable large cost savings through branch closures. The judgment on whether this is a good deal should be made in three years, not now, says Martin Blessing, Commerzbank’s boss.

德国商业银行股东的最初反应不太热情：交易宣布当日德国商业银行股价下跌超过11%，然而最终将只持有并购后德国商业银行30%股份的安联股价微弱上扬。此外，投资者忧虑：德国商业银行对德瑞斯顿银行收购价格过高；此项交易增加了德国商业银行的不良资产额；在市价跌落之际收缩投行规模可能成本不菲。在这个银行业的”多事之秋”,可以理解这样的神经过敏，但是很难质疑这次并购背后的长期商业合理性，以分支机构的数量这次并购将创造出德国最大的零售银行，使德国商业银行凭籍对德国中小企业业务成为市场领导者，并且可通过关闭分支机构节约大量成本。德国商业银行的老总马丁•布莱森（Martin Blessing）表示，这笔生意的结果并非成败立见，要等上三年才见分晓。
Shareholders and employees aside, should anyone outside Germany care? The rationale for the deal is domestic. In its presentation to analysts, the enlarged Commerzbank was billed as a German champion. The investment bank will focus on the things that its mid-market German clients want, such as foreign-exchange products, debt-raising or mergers and acquisitions advice. Banks in other European countries have already largely consolidated; there is surely little to learn from an in-country merger of this kind.

除了股东和雇员，德国之外谁应当关心此事?该交易的理论基础在德国国内。依现象分析，壮大的德国商业银行被标榜为德国第一。其投行将专注于它中级市场的德国客户所需：比如外汇产品，举债、合并及收购咨询业务。欧洲其他国家的银行已广泛整合；像德国商业银行这种类型的国内兼并的确是鲜有所闻。

In fact, the deal is arguably more interesting to outsiders than to Germans. The country’s banking system will remain hopelessly fragmented, thanks to the country’s “three pillar” structure of private, public and co-operative banks. Further consolidation will happen only slowly: the sale of Postbank by Deutsche Post is the likeliest next milestone. “My goal is not to try and change the entire banking landscape,” says Mr Blessing.

事实上，局外人比德国人本身对这次并购更感兴趣。鉴于德国私营、国营和公私合营银行的”三足鼎立”结构，其银行业务系统将依旧无可避免的支离破碎。进一步的合并发生将只是时间问题：德国邮政集团（Deutsche Post）对德国邮政银行（Postbank）的出售将可能是下一个里程碑。”我的目的不是试图改变整个银行业的面貌。”德国商业银行总裁布莱森先生说。

Maybe not, but the shape of the deal gives clues to the kind of dealmaking that is likely to happen elsewhere as a result of the credit crisis. Take the mechanics of the bid. Concerns about maintaining decent levels of capital help to explain why the transaction is largely in shares, not cash. The deal also shows how to settle differences between buyers and sellers in the valuation of dodgy assets. Around 4.9 euro billion of Dresdner’s wobblier exposures will be placed in a special vehicle. Commerzbank will take the hit on first losses on these assets of up to 275m euro, but has put another 975m euro into the vehicle to cover additional losses and earmarked this amount as a contingent payment to Allianz. The insurer will only get what remains after all the losses have been taken.

或许不是，但是此项交易的达成为因信贷危机而可能发生在别处的此类并购提供了启示。例如竞标技巧。对维持像样水平的资本援助的关注解释了为什么交易大多以股份，而不是现金达成。该交易也展现了如何调停买方和卖方对风险资产的估价。德瑞斯顿银行的约49亿欧元不太稳定未加保护资产将投入到一个特殊的金融工具。德国商业银行将承担这些资产带来的首批达2.75亿欧元的损失，还要把另9.75亿欧元投入该工具，作为偿付额外损失和给付安联收购金的专门款项。在这其中，安联仅得到该款项刨去所有损失之后所剩的余额。

There are other lessons. This is no time to be striking off in bold new directions. Both Allianz and Commerzbank have decided to keep their business mix focused on what they do best. Dresdner’s investment bank will not be the only one to slim down riskier activities such as proprietary trading. Perhaps most intriguing was the presence of a Chinese bidder, reportedly China Development Bank, in the race for Dresdner. Not long ago, people would have scoffed at that prospect too.

还有其他的经验。现在不是在大胆的新方向可以轻易成功的时机。安联和德国商业银行都决定混合他们的业务专注于做他们所最擅长的。德瑞斯顿银行的投行将削减像自由资金交易这样更具风险的业务，它将不会是唯一的一家。或许最有意思的事情是，一个中国竞标者也加入竞购德瑞斯顿银行行列，据传是中国国家开发银行。不久前，人们本也会对此报以嘲笑.

译者：蓝冰    http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=13865&extra=page%3D1