[2008.09.06] 日本政治：又一庸人下台

Japanese politics
日本政治

Another grey man bites the dust
又一庸人下台

Sep 4th 2008
From The Economist print edition

Yasuo Fukuda’s departure may just herald the political crisis Japan so badly needs
福田的离职可能预示着日本急需的政治转折

BRUISED, bothered and bewildered, a Japanese prime minister for the second time in a year has thrown in the towel after a few ineffectual months in the ring. Yasuo Fukuda, like his predecessor, Shinzo Abe, had seen his popularity ratings slump, as his party rivals sharpened their knives and his policies fizzled. Meanwhile, Japan’s longest period of continuous economic expansion since the war had stuttered to a halt (see article). Whoever succeeds Mr Fukuda (Taro Aso, who thought a year ago he should precede him, is the favourite) will face the same seemingly insuperable obstacles. Japanese politics seems a hopeless and depressing mess. However, for those, like this newspaper, hoping for change in Japan, this is a moment not for hand-wringing gloom, but for hand-rubbing glee: Japanese politics may have entered its most exciting period in more than 50 years (see article).几个月的徒劳尝试后，
福田康夫黯然离职，这是一年之内下台的第二位日本首相。在福田任内，由于其政策的无果而终及政党对手的步步紧逼，他的支持率急骤下跌，这与前任安倍晋三的遭遇如出一辙。与此同时，日本战后历时最长的经济持续增长也步履蹒跚，几近停滞。不管谁接任福田（麻生太郎呼声最高，他认为自己一年前就该继任首相），都会面临这些似乎无法解决的难题。日本政治似乎是一团乱麻，前景黯淡。然而，对于那些期望日本变革的人来说，比如本报，现在不是忧心忡忡的沮丧时刻，而是磨拳擦掌的欢快时刻：日本政治可能步入了50年来最为激动人心的时期。

The excitement lies in the probable collapse of the old political order and the realignment it will herald. Of course, such a transformation has been predicted-and avoided-for years. And the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) still has two powerful weapons: its well-oiled machinery of patronage and the incoherence of the main opposition, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). Politics still looks deceptively like business as usual. Indeed, in the end, it was a belated attempt to pursue reform and take on some of the LDP’s vested interests that did for Mr Fukuda. He exhausted himself struggling against them. The succession will be decided in the traditional manner: among the LDP’s barons, without asking the electorate. Japan will have its third leader in a row not to have led his party to a victory at the polls. Japan’s top-down politics stands in stark contrast to America’s thrilling primary season.
令人激动之处在于旧有政治秩序的可能坍塌和新秩序的建立。当然，这种转变几年前就已被预知并瓦解。执政党自民党依然拥有两大强力武器：运行良好的募款机制和频繁更迭的主要反对党。政治给人一种假象，似乎一切依然如常。实际上，福田最后对自民党固有利益的挑战和追求改革的尝试都来的太晚了。他在与他们斗争的过程中耗尽心力。首相继任者将按照传统方式，由自民党大佬决定，无须经由选民。这位下任首相将依然会同前两任一样，无法带领其政党赢得选举。日本由上而下的政治与美国现在令人激动的初选形成鲜明的对比。

Yet LDP rule in its present form is in terminal decline. This had been disguised until recently by the premiership from 2001 of Junichiro Koizumi, who combined two qualities rarely seen in Japan’s politicians: popularity and reforming drive. When Mr Koizumi retired in 2006, Mr Abe, youthful and assertive, seemed well-placed to maintain this momentum. But he proved disastrously inept. And it turned out that Mr Koizumi’s policies were liked much less than the man himself. Despite his recent efforts to revive reform, Mr Fukuda, a stopgap, marked a return to the old, grey, back-room style. This week the party has had to admit that this did not work either.
然而，自民党现今的统治方式已病入膏荒。但直到最近，这都被假像蒙蔽，因为2001年上任的小泉既有民望又有改革的热情，这在日本政治家中是少有的。 2006年小泉离任后，年富力强的安倍晋三看起来是延续这种劲头的绝佳人选。然而很不幸，他没有这个能力。事实证明，别人对小泉政策的喜爱远不如对小泉本人那般狂热。做为一个过渡性的首相，尽管福田最近努力重启改革，但他的当权意味着那种旧式密室政治的回归。随着本周福田的辞职，自民党不得不承认，旧式密室政治也不起作用。

Time for a shake-up
巨变时刻

If Mr Aso becomes the LDP’s leader, he may call an election at once, hoping to profit from the bounce in popularity a fresh face might give the party. He certainly should do so, since it is time voters had their say. But even if he does not, an election is due by September next year. For all but 11 months of the past half-century, Japan has been ruled by the LDP. There is now a real chance the party might lose power, or at least the lower-house “supermajority” which allows it to force through legislation despite its loss in 2007 of a majority in the powerful upper house of the parliament. It will be years before the LDP has a real chance to win back that majority. Without upheaval, deadlock would be entrenched.
如果麻生成为自民党总裁，自民党可能会由于新脸孔的出现而得到民众支持，基于这种可能的支持率反弹，麻生可能会立即举行选举。他当然应该这么做，因为是时候该民众说话了。即使他不这么做，明年九月的大选也会如期来临。除了短暂的11个月而外，过去的半个世纪，日本一直由自民党统治。目前自民党确实有失去权力的危险，或者说，至少有失去下院绝对优势的危险。自2007年自民党失去了在上院的多数派地位后，正是下院的绝对优势可以让它得以强制立法。自民党想赢回上院的多数席位仍须时日。如果没有一场剧变，僵局就将形成。

Which is why change might come at last. Mr Koizumi still has followers. One will challenge Mr Aso for the prime minister’s job. But many have already realised that the LDP as currently constituted cannot represent their policy ambitions. Similarly, young Turks in the ranks of the DPJ vest few hopes in their party leader, Ichiro Ozawa, a political bruiser. The prospects have rarely been brighter for these two groups to join forces and drag Japan towards true policy-based competition between parties. Nor has the need ever been greater.
这也正是变革最终可能会到来的原因。小泉仍有追随者。有人会为首相之位挑战麻生。但很多人都意识到，以现在的构架，自民党无法实现他们的治国方略。与此类似，民主党年轻的激进分子也没对他们好斗的领导人小泽一朗寄于多少厚望。现在需要组建自民党和民主党联盟，将日本引向真正的基于施政纲领的政党竞争，这种联手的必要性比以往任何时刻都强，其前景也最为明朗。

译者：dgrkl   http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=13856&extra=page%3D1