Japan’s economy
日本经济
Down but not out
颓而不败
Sep 4th 2008 | HONG KONG
From The Economist print edition
Japan could yet outperform the other big rich economies over the next year
明年日本仍可能胜过其他富裕经济体
THE surprise resignation of Japan’s prime minister, Yasuo Fukuda, has once again left the world’s second-largest economy rudderless-just as it seems to be drifting dangerously towards the rocks. Although America is the centre of the world’s financial troubles, Japan’s economy appears to have been hit harder: its GDP fell sharply in the second quarter, whereas America’s continued to expand. Indeed, many economists expect Japan’s economy to shrink again in the three months to September, which on the rule of thumb of two consecutive quarters of decline, would imply a recession. You might conclude that without radical reform Japan will continue to underperform. However, a more thorough health check suggests that Japan’s economy is actually in better shape than it looks, and its downturn may be shorter and shallower than those in America and most European economies could be.
日本首相福田康夫的突然辞职再一次使日本这一世界第二大经济体失去舵手–日本经济似乎正危险地漂向暗礁。尽管美国处于世界金融动荡的中心，但日本经济似乎受创更为严重：第二季度日本GDP急剧下滑，美国GDP则继续增长。的确，许多经济学者预料日本经济至9月的三个月中若再度收缩将意味着其经济衰退,这是根据连续两个季度经济下降就形成经济衰退的经验来判断的。你或许推断：没有根本改革的日本将继续表现不佳。然而，一个更为彻底的经济健壮性检查表明日本经济实际上比其看起来要运转得好,并且日本的经济低迷或许比美国和大部分欧洲经济体的经济低迷持续时间要短,程度要浅.
Three days before Mr Fukuda quit, fears that the economy was sinking into another deep recession panicked the government into announcing a modest stimulus package of tax cuts and financial assistance for transport and construction industries, and for smaller firms. Even if these measures are carried out, most economists do not think it would do much to revive the economy. Some politicians would like a big increase in public spending, but the government has promised to eliminate its primary budget deficit (ie, before interest payments) by 2011-12 in order to reduce public-sector debt of 170% of GDP-the largest among the big rich economies.
福田先生辞职前的三天，对经济正陷入又一深度衰退的忧虑使政府惊慌失措的宣布一项小幅经济刺激一揽子方案，包括减税和对运输、基建行业还有小公司的财政补助。即使这些举措得以实施，大部分经济学者都不认为其对提振日本经济能起多大作用。一些政客倾向于大幅增加政府开支，但是政府已经承诺在（即在偿付利息之前）2011-12年前消除它的主要预算赤字，以达到削减占GDP170%的公共部门债务的目的，在发达经济体中，日本的公共部门债务所占GDP比重最大。
The government’s balance sheet may seem dire, but the private sector’s looks healthier than for many years, because Japan has avoided the economic and financial imbalances that threaten many economies in the West. Unlike America and parts of Europe, notably Britain, Japan is not experiencing a credit crunch and house prices are not collapsing. Consumer and corporate finances are also generally in better shape.
政府的资产负债表或许貌似骇人，但多年以来日本的私营部门显得更为健康，因为日本避免了威胁许多西方国家的经济与金融的失衡，不像美国和欧洲的一些国家，特别是英国，日本没有经历信贷紧缩和房市崩溃。消费者和企业财务也普遍状况良好。
Japanese financial institutions’ losses on securities linked to American subprime mortgages so far amount to just $17 billion, out of worldwide losses of $500 billion. As a result, most banks can still lend, except to property developers, some of which rely heavily on funding from abroad and from small regional banks. Several of them have gone bust in the past few months. More generally, however, Japanese house prices are unlikely to crumble. After its housing bubble burst in the 1990s, the market has not inflated again.
迄今，日本金融机构在美国次级抵押贷款相关证券方面的损失仅170亿美元，与全世界5000亿美元的损失相比微不足道。因此，日本大多数银行仍能放贷，除了无法借给地产开发商，一些地产开发商严重依赖海外融资和小的区域性银行。个别地产开发商在过去的几个月中已告破产。更寻常的情况是，日本的房价不太可能崩溃。继上世纪90年代日本房市泡沫破裂以来，这个市场已不再虚涨。
The biggest contrast with America and Britain is that Japanese households have reduced their debt from 71% of GDP in 2000 to 63% this year, according to Goldman Sachs. This is much lower than debt ratios of around 100% in both America and Britain, where borrowing has exploded over the past decade (see chart). The only other G7 economy where consumer debt has declined is Germany, which has also avoided a housing bubble.
据高盛数据，与英美形成强烈对比的是日本家庭负债已由2000年占GDP71%降至今年占GDP63%的水平。这远低于英美大约占GDP100%的负债率。过去10年英美家庭负债猛增（如图所示）。西方工业七国（G7）经济体中唯一的例外是德国，该国消费者债务下降，并且避免了房市泡沫。
Japanese companies have trimmed their debts even more dramatically, to 78% of GDP from 130% in 1991. The level is now well below where it was before the 1980s bubble, though higher than corporate America’s debt of less than 50% of GDP. (American firms have traditionally relied more on equity financing.) On the other hand, corporate debt has expanded rapidly in the European Union.
日本的公司甚至更大幅削减了他们的债务，由1991年占GDP130%降至现在的占GDP78%，这个数字远低于上世纪80年代日本经济泡沫时期负债数额，尽管还是高于美国企业负债水平，美国的企业负债占GDP的50%。（传统上美国的企业更多依赖股权融资。）另一方面，欧盟企业债务激增。
Heavy debts, falling property prices and a shortage of new credit are a lethal cocktail, which could depress economic growth in America and parts of Europe for several years-as Japan itself found out in the 1990s. Today Japan’s economy is much less burdened by debt and so likely to recover more quickly.
沉重的债务，下降的地产价格和新信用的缺失构成毁灭性的杂糅，数年内这将抑制美国和欧洲部分地区的经济增长–正如日本自身在上世纪90年代所发现的一样。当今日本经济的债务负担比起当年来轻得多,所以可能恢复得更快.
Another reason why the downturn in Japan could be fairly mild is that almost half of Japan’s exports go to other buoyant Asian economies. Exports had been the main force behind Japan’s recovery before they slowed this year. Shipments to America and to Europe have fallen, but demand from the rest of Asia remains strong. In July, for the first time, Japan exported more to China than to America.
经济低迷在日本表现地可能还算温和的另一原因是：近一半的日本出口货物销往其他蓬勃亚洲经济体。在今年日本出口减缓之前，出口是其经济复苏主要力量。对美国和欧洲的海运已经下降，但是亚洲需求仍然强劲。7月，日本首次对华出口超过其对美出口。
Japan’s long-term growth rate has undoubtedly been strangled by the lack of reform. Yet its economy is now in better shape than for many years. Japan’s GDP is likely to grow faster than both America’s and the euro area’s over the next year. If so, 2009 will be the fourth year running that Japan’s GDP per head shows the biggest increase of the three. And that is not only because its population is shrinking.
日本的长期增长率无疑受扼于缺乏改革。然而，现在日本经济比多年以前要运转得好。明年，日本的GDP可能比美国和欧元区都增长的要快，倘若如此，2009年将是连续第4年日本人均GDP增长并超过前三年中任一年增长幅度的一年，并且这并不是日本人口减少所造成的。
译者：蓝冰 http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=13801&extra=page%3D1