In a fix
进退两难
Feb 21st 2008 | HONG KONG
From The Economist print edition
Putting caps on prices is only a short-term solution
价格管制只能是短期解决措施
ACROSS Asia inflation is rising, largely because of higher food and energy prices. China’s inflation rate surged to an 11-year high of 7.1% in January and looks set to climb further this month, after some severe snow storms. India, Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore all have inflation rates above 4%.
整个亚洲都在通胀，很大原因是由于高昂的食品与能源价格。1月份中国的通货膨胀率上升到11年的7.1％高点，而由于严重的雪灾，看上去这个月会继续上升。泰国和新加坡的通胀超过4％。
Central banks are reluctant to raise interest rates by much at the same time as America’s Federal Reserve is slashing its rates, for fear this would attract foreign capital and push their currencies sharply higher. Stronger currencies would in fact help to reduce the price of imported food and energy. But instead, many governments are resorting to price controls and government subsides to curb inflation. India has long imposed price ceilings on a wide range of goods. Thailand, Malaysia and the Philippines are considering new price controls or subsidies. In January the Chinese government froze the prices of energy, transport and water, and announced that producers of essential food items, such as meat, grain, eggs and cooking oil must seek approval before raising prices.
在美联储大幅降低利率的的情况下，由于害怕吸引外国资本和进一步提升汇率，央行们不愿意提高利率。强势汇率实际上可以降低进口的食品与能源的价格。但是，许多国家都通过价格控制和政府补贴来抑制通胀。印度一直以来对很多种商品进行价格控制。泰国，马来西亚以及菲律宾都在考虑价格控制和补贴。一月份，中国政府冻结了能源，交通以及水的价格，并宣布关键食品如油、蛋、肉、米的生产商在价格上涨之前必须得到批准。
After three decades of market liberalisation in China, some view this as a great leap backwards. But Chinese officials understand that holding down prices reduces the incentive for producers to increase supply, creating shortages that can push prices higher. It also dampens the incentive for households to curb demand.
在中国30年的市场自由化之后，一些人认为这是一个巨大的倒退。但中国官员理解控制价格会降低生产商增加供应的动机，产生短缺进一步抬高价格，它同时也降低了家庭控制需求的动机。
Chinese officials say that the measures are only temporary and food prices are being “monitored”, not frozen. Indeed, the main purpose of the measures appears to be political: the leadership wants to be seen to be responding to public concerns over rising prices. Inflation has been a big cause of unrest in Asia many times in the past, most notably the 1989 Tiananmen Square demonstrations.
中国官员说这些措施都是暂时的，食品价格只是被监控而非冻结。实际上，这些措施的主要目的是政治性的，领导层希望显示出相应公众对于价格上涨的关注。在过去，通胀是很多次动荡的主要起因，最著名的案例是1989年天安门广场的游行。
The World Bank in its China Quarterly Update argues that in the short run the benefits of price controls in curbing inflation expectations may outweigh the detrimental effects. This is because the increase in inflation has been mostly driven by food, as a result of supply shocks, rather than caused by excess aggregate demand. The 60% jump in the price of pork over the past year, for instance, has been largely caused by disease, not a surge in demand. In the longer run, however, the damaging effects of price controls on incentives and efficiency will outweigh the benefits.
世界银行在其中国季刊中认为，在短期内价格控制在控制通胀预期上的收益也许会大于其不利影响。因为，主要由食品价格驱动的通胀的上升是由于供应上的意外，而非更多的需求引起的。例如，去年猪肉的60％的价格上升，主要是由于疾病，而不是因为需求突然上升。在长期，价格控制在信号传递以及效率上的不良效果将会超过其收益。
But even if there may be a case for temporary price controls on food, the long-standing controls and subsidies that hold down fuel prices across the region need to be scrapped. In Malaysia and Indonesia, which have the cheapest petrol in Asia, fuel subsidies account for over 10% of total government spending.
即使短期的食品价格控制还有一些理由，而整个区域内，为了降低油价的长期的价格控制和补贴则应该废除。印度尼西亚和马来西亚的，拥有亚洲最低的汽油价格，燃料补贴占据了整个政府花费的10％
India’s government agreed on a timid 5% rise in petrol prices on February 15th—the first increase in 20 months. China raised petrol prices by 10% last November, but oil refiners are still being forced to sell fuel below its international cost, which has caused shortages at petrol stations.
印度同意在2月15日对汽油价格温和的上涨5％，20个月来的第一次上涨。中国在11月把汽油价格上涨了10％，但炼油商仍不得不以低于国际成本的价格进行销售，这造成加油站的供应紧缺。
Not only are price controls no long-term cure for inflation, argue many Western commentators, but if domestic fuel prices are not allowed to rise in line with crude-oil prices, then motorists from Beijing to Bangalore will guzzle more oil. This, in turn, pushes global oil prices higher.
许多西方评论者，认为价格控制从长期来说不是通胀的良药，而且如果不允许国内燃料价格与原油价格同步上涨，那么从北京到班加洛尔的驾车者们会消耗更多的石油，而这反过来进一步推动全球石油价格。
It is true that Asian economies have been slow to raise petrol prices in recent years. Yet, as the chart shows, motorists in most Asian countries, including China and India, pay more for their petrol today than Americans do. (Only Indonesia and Malaysia pay less.)
亚洲经济体近年来在提高汽油价格上行动缓慢，但是，如本图表所示，驾车者们在大部分亚洲国家，（包括印度和中国），相对美国来说需要为汽油掏更多的钱。（只有印度尼西亚和马来西亚更少）China and the rest of Asia certainly need to set energy prices free to improve their own economic efficiency. But Americans who blame rising global oil demand and prices on Asia’s cheap-energy policies should look closer to home too.
中国以及其他亚洲国家当然需要放开价格来提高他们经济的效率。但是抱怨亚洲能源低价政策导致上升的全球石油需求和价格的美国人也应该管好自己。
“[2008.02.21]In a fix 进退两难”的一个回复