Latin America
拉丁美洲
The bishop of democracy
民主主教
Aug 7th 2008
From The Economist print edition
A welcome for another left-wing leader; but expect the pendulum to start swinging to the right
欢迎另一位左翼领导人；但是预期钟摆将开始向右摆动
APART from featuring in a couple of novels by Graham Greene, Paraguay has rarely attracted the attention of outsiders. It is a poor, sweltering, landlocked tract of South America with only 6m people, many of Amerindian descent. But it enjoys a sad distinction. For the past 61 years it has been in the grip of the world’s longest-ruling party, the Colorados, first under the kleptocratic dictatorship of General Alfredo Stroessner and then under his only slightly less grasping civilian acolytes.
除了在Graham Greene的几本小说中出现之外，巴拉圭很少引起外人的注意。它是南美洲一个贫穷、炎热的内陆国家，仅有600万人口，其中许多是美洲印第安人后裔。但是它有着一个令人伤心的不同之处。过去61年里，它都受着这个世界上统治时间最长的政党Colorados的控制，首先是在Alfredo Stroessne将军的海盗式的独裁统治下，然后是在他稍微缓和点的文职助手们的控制下。
It is not surprising that it took a man who might have walked off the pages of a Greene novel to end Colorado misrule. Fernando Lugo, who takes office on August 15th, was at the time he won the presidential election in April still technically a Catholic bishop (the Vatican has since accepted his resignation). He is a bearded, sandal-wearing liberation theologian, a campaigner for the poor and for land reform (see article). He is also a political novice who heads a disparate coalition whose span extends from the centre to the hard left.
因此这一次它选择了一位似乎是从Greene的小说中走出来的男人来结束Colorado的混乱统治也不奇怪。Fernando Lugo，将于8月15日就任，4月份当他赢得总统选举时从技术上来说他还是一位天主教的主教（梵蒂冈随后接受了他的辞职）。他是个蓄须的、穿凉鞋的自由神学家，是穷人和土地改革的拥护者。他也是一个政治新手，领导着一个截然不同的联盟–从中间派到强硬的左派。
Mr Lugo takes his place in a cohort of left-wing leaders who have come to power in Latin America in the past few years. So expect much comment in the next few days to the effect that the region is moving irrevocably and uniformly towards socialism and away from the influence of-or if you prefer, domination by-the United States.
Lugo先生在拉丁美洲过去几年来掌握权力的左翼领导人集团中占据了自己的位置。因此接下来的几天里预期对这件事情的后果会有许多评论：该地区正在不可阻挡地、一致地向着社会主义靠近，而离美国的影响–或者，如果你喜欢，离美国的支配–越来越远。
The reality is more complex. First, the centre-right still holds sway in some places, such as Mexico, Colombia and Peru. And, second, the differences between the region’s left-wing leaders are more important than the similarities. Although neither leader says so publicly, there is little in common between Hugo Chávez’s autocratic military socialism in Venezuela and the pragmatic social democracy of Brazil’s Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Mr Lugo’s brand of leftism might well be closer to Lula’s than to that of Mr Chávez, but he will be his own man.
现实要复杂得多。首先，中右翼仍在许多地方占据主导地位，比如墨西哥、哥伦比亚和秘鲁。其次，该地区左翼领导人之间的差异比他们的相似之处要重要得多。尽管没有领导人公开这么说，雨果•查韦斯在委内瑞拉实行的军事独裁社会主义和巴西的Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva实施的实用主义的社会民主制度之间没有什么共同之处。Lugo先生的左翼名声离Lula更近，而离查韦斯先生更远，但他是自由的，不受别人控制。
There are some common threads in the stories of how these left-wing leaders have come to power. They include widespread poverty, deep inequalities of income and the economic difficulties that the region suffered a decade ago (which, though partly due to external events, eroded faith in the centre-right leaders then in office). Yet the left would be mistaken in imagining that it has a permanent lease on power.
这些左翼领导人上台的故事中有着一些共同点。它包括蔓延的贫困、收入的极度不平等以及该地区十年前经受的经济困难（这些困难，尽管部分是由于外部事件，侵蚀了对当时在台上的中右翼领导人的信心）。然而如果左派想当然地认为自己拥有一个永久的当权期，那就错了。
Kicking the bums out
把懒汉踢出去
That is because another factor behind the recent success of the Latin American left is the fresh vigour of democracy in a region where dictatorship was once common. Democracy cuts many ways politically: Latin American voters, like those elsewhere, will punish governments that disappoint.
那是因为，另一个使拉丁美洲左翼获得最近成功的因素是：在一个独裁曾经很普遍的地区，民主制度发挥了新鲜的威力。民主制度是政治上的双刃剑：拉丁美洲的选民，像其它地方的选民一样，将惩罚令自己失望的政府。
The past few years of rapid economic growth have helped incumbent governments of all sorts. The next period looks tougher. To make matters worse for the incumbents of the left, the two issues now uppermost in Latin American minds are inflation and crime, which both tend to move votes to the right. That gives the centre-right an opportunity to regain ground-though the conservatives will need to arm themselves with credible policies both to reduce poverty and to promote equality of opportunity.
过去几年经济的快速发展帮助了现任的各类政府。接下来一段时期看来日子会更难过。对现在的左翼掌权派来说，更糟的是，在拉丁美洲人的心目中最重要的是两件事情：通货膨胀和犯罪，两者都可能将选票推向右翼。这就给中右翼一个卷土重来的机会–尽管保守主义者需要用可信的政策来武装自己–既能减少贫困，又能促进机会平等。
The political tide may turn in elections next year for president in Chile and for Congress in Argentina. So welcome Mr Lugo, because Paraguay desperately needs change and a democracy worth the name. But expect Latin America’s political pendulum to start swinging.
这种政治潮流可能会在来年智利的总统选举和阿根廷的国会选举时改变。因此欢迎Lugo先生，因为巴拉圭极度需要改变和一个名副其实的民主。但是预期拉丁美洲的政治钟摆会开始摇摆。
译者：7colorwolf http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=13251&extra=page%3D1