[2008.07.26] 美国：消沉的美国

America
美国

Unhappy America
不幸福的美国

Jul 24th 2008
From The Economist print edition

If America can learn from its problems, instead of blaming others, it will come back stronger
如果美国能够从自身的问题中汲取教训，而非责备他人，就会变得更为强大。

NATIONS, like people, occasionally get the blues; and right now the United States, normally the world’s most self-confident place, is glum. Eight out of ten Americans think their country is heading in the wrong direction. The hapless George Bush is partly to blame for this: his approval ratings are now sub-Nixonian. But many are concerned not so much about a failed president as about a flailing nation.
国家，就像人一样，也时常陷入忧郁；而原本是世界上最自信的国家的美国，如今也陷入阴沉。80%的美国人认为他们的国家正向一个错误的方向发展。不幸的小布什也对此部分地受到责备：他现在的支持率已不如尼克松。但是与其说人们更加关心一个失败的总统，不如说更加关心一个动荡的国家。

One source of angst is the sorry state of American capitalism . The “Washington consensus” told the world that open markets and deregulation would solve its problems. Yet American house prices are falling faster than during the Depression, petrol is more expensive than in the 1970s, banks are collapsing, the euro is kicking sand in the dollar’s face, credit is scarce, recession and inflation both threaten the economy, consumer confidence is an oxymoron and Belgians have just bought Budweiser, “America’s beer”.
焦虑的一个来源是美国资本主义的可怜境地。”华盛顿共识”告诉世界开放市场以及放松管制会解决问题。但是，美国房价正以比大萧条时期更快的速度下滑，石油比20世纪70年代更加昂贵，银行在倒闭，欧元在美元面前飞扬跋扈，信用缺失，衰退和通胀都威胁着经济。比利时刚收购了被称为”美国的啤酒”的百威啤酒，这与消费者信心形成一种矛盾。

And it’s not just the downturn that has caused this discontent. Many Americans feel as if they missed the boom. Between 2002 and 2006 the incomes of 99% rose by an average of 1% a year in real terms, while those of the top 1% rose by 11% a year; three-quarters of the economic gains during Mr Bush’s presidency went to that top 1%. Economic envy, once seen as a European vice, is now rife. The rich appear in Barack Obama’s speeches not as entrepreneurial role models but as modern versions of the “malefactors of great wealth” denounced by Teddy Roosevelt a century ago: this lot, rather than building trusts, avoid taxes and ship jobs to Mexico. Globalisation is under fire: free trade is less popular in the United States than in any other developed country, and a nation built on immigrants is building a fence to keep them out. People mutter about nation-building beginning at home: why, many wonder, should American children do worse at reading than Polish ones and at maths than Lithuanians?
不满并不仅仅由这种下降趋势而引起。许多美国人感觉他们好像错过了繁荣。在2002年到2006年间，99%的收入每年实际上涨了1%，但那些收入最高的 1%人群的收入每年却上涨11%，占了布什执政时期经济收入的四分之三。曾经被看做欧式恶习的经济嫉妒，如今却很盛行。在巴拉克•奥巴马的演讲中，财富并不是出现在企业家模范们的身上，而是出现在一个世纪以前罗斯福总统所谴责的”巨额财富的罪人”：这种**，与其说是建立信任，不如说是为了逃税和向墨西哥输出劳务。全球化正处于水深火热之中：自由贸易在美国比在任何其他发达国家都不流行，并且一个由移民组成的国家正在建立了一个阻止他们进入的壁垒。人们开始在家中抱怨国家建设：很多人想知道，为什么美国小孩的阅读水平不如波兰小孩，而且数学成绩不如立陶宛小孩？

The dragon’s breath on your shoulder
身边的巨龙呼吸

Abroad, America has spent vast amounts of blood and treasure, to little purpose. In Iraq, finding an acceptable exit will look like success; Afghanistan is slipping. America’s claim to be a beacon of freedom in a dark world has been dimmed by Guantánamo, Abu Ghraib and the flouting of the Geneva Conventions amid the panicky “unipolar” posturing in the aftermath of September 11th.
在国外，为了很小的目的，美国花费了巨大的血汗和财富。在伊拉克，找到一种体面的退出方式看起来像一种成功；而在阿富汗方面却渐渐松弛。美国要在一个黑暗的世界里成为自由之光的声明因为关塔那摩监狱、阿布加里卜监狱以及在9•11之后对于单极世界故作姿态的恐慌中对日内瓦公约的蔑视而黯然失色，

Now the world seems very multipolar. Europeans no longer worry about American ascendancy. The French, some say, understood the Arab world rather better than the neoconservatives did. Russia, the Gulf Arabs and the rising powers of Asia scoff openly at the Washington consensus. China in particular spooks America-and may do so even more over the next few weeks of Olympic medal-gathering. Americans are discussing the rise of China and their consequent relative decline; measuring when China’s economy will be bigger and counting its missiles and submarines has become a popular pastime in Washington. A few years ago, no politician would have been seen with a book called “The Post-American World”. Mr Obama has been conspicuously reading Fareed Zakaria’s recent volume.
现在的世界更加多极化。欧洲已经不再忧虑美国的霸主地位。有人说法国人比新保守主义者更加了解阿拉伯世界。俄罗斯，海湾地区和正在崛起的亚洲国家公开嘲笑华盛顿共识。特别地，中国让美国人大跌眼镜–而且会在接下来几周中在对奥运金牌的追逐中更加如此。美国人正在讨论中国崛起和其自身相继而来的相关衰退，估量着中国经济何时将会变得更加强大以及何时估算其导弹和潜水艇会在华盛顿成为一种流行的消遣。就在几年之前，没有一个政客会看一本叫做”后美国时代”的书，但是很显然，奥巴马先生正在读Fareed Zakaria最近的书。

America has got into funks before now. In the 1950s it went into a Sputnik-driven spin about Soviet power; in the 1970s there was Watergate, Vietnam and the oil shocks; in the late 1980s Japan seemed to be buying up America. Each time, the United States rebounded, because the country is good at fixing itself. Just as American capitalism allows companies to die, and to be created, quickly, so its political system reacts fast. In Europe, political leaders emerge slowly, through party hierarchies; in America, the primaries permit inspirational unknowns to burst into the public consciousness from nowhere.
美国之前一度陷入低谷。20世纪50年代陷入了与苏联有关的，由人造卫星驱动的漩涡之中；在70年代发生了水门事件，越战和石油冲击；在80年代末，日本似乎可以将美国收购。因为美国擅长自我修复，所以每一次都起死回生。正像美国资本主义允许公司破产、并且很快被重建，它的政治体制反应很快。在欧洲，政治领袖通过党内层级浮现缓慢，但是在美国，初选却允许无名之辈从不名之地涌入公众视野。

Still, countries, like people, behave dangerously when their mood turns dark. If America fails to distinguish between what it needs to change and what it needs to accept, it risks hurting not just allies and trading partners, but also itself.
国家就像人一样，心情恶劣的时候行为也很危险。如果美国分不清什么需要改变和什么需要接受，它将不仅伤害同盟者和贸易伙伴，也会伤害自身。

The Asian scapegoat
亚洲替罪羊

There are certainly areas where change is needed. The credit crunch is in part the consequence of a flawed regulatory system. Lax monetary policy allowed Americans to build up debts and fuelled a housing bubble that had to burst eventually. Lessons need to be learnt from both of those mistakes; as they do from widespread concerns about the state of education and health care.
当然有地区需要改革。信贷紧缩（不良贷款）是一个有瑕疵的监管体系的部分结果。松弛的货币政策–允许美国人负债以及催生的房产泡沫必将最终爆发。从这些错误中必须得到教训，就像他们对国家的教育和医疗保障的广泛关注一样。

Over-unionised and unaccountable, America’s school system needs the same sort of competition that makes its universities the envy of the world. American health care, which manages to be the most expensive on the planet even though it fails properly to care for the tens of millions of people, badly needs reform.
美国过度紧密和无法解释的学校体制也需要同样的竞争，这样的竞争使得它的大学为全世界所羡慕。作为世界上最昂贵的美国的医疗保健服务，虽然没有覆盖数千万人，也亟需改革。

There have been plenty of mistakes abroad, too. Waging a war on terror was always going to be like pinning jelly to a wall. As for Guantánamo Bay, it is the most profoundly un-American place on the planet: rejoice when it is shut.
美国在海外也有很多错误。以反恐为借口的战争总像往墙壁上放果冻一样站不住脚。至于关塔那摩海湾，是世界上最不像美国的地方：当其被关闭时人们会欢欣鼓舞。

In such areas America is already showing its genius for reinvention. Both the Republican and Democratic presidential candidates promise to close Guantánamo. As his second term ticks down, even Mr Bush has begun to see the limits of unilateralism. Instead of just denouncing and threatening the “axis of evil” he is working more closely with allies (and non-allies) in Asia to calm down North Korea. For the first time he has just let American officials join in the negotiations with Iran about its fishy nuclear programme。
在这些区域美国依然展现了其再造的天才。无论是共和党还是民主党的总统候选人都许诺关闭关塔那摩监狱。甚至小布什也在其第二任期将要结束的时候，开始看到片面限制武器论的局限性。他正在跟亚洲的同盟国（以及非同盟国）紧密合作，而不仅仅是谴责和威胁”邪恶轴心”来安抚朝鲜。他也刚刚第一次让美国官员参与关于伊朗核问题的谈判。

That America is beginning to correct its mistakes is good; and there’s plenty more of that to be done. But one source of angst demands a change in attitude rather than a drive to restore the status quo: America’s relative decline, especially compared with Asia in general and China in particular.
美国正开始改正自己的错误是好的，而且还有更多要去做。但是焦虑的来源与其说需要对修复现状的驱动，不如说更需要态度的转变：修复美国相关的衰退，特别是相对亚洲而言，更特别地，是相对于中国。

The economic gap between America and a rising Asia has certainly narrowed; but worrying about it is wrong for two reasons. First, even at its present growth rate, China’s GDP will take a quarter of a century to catch up with America’s; and the internal tensions that China’s rapidly changing economy has caused may well lead it to stumble before then. Second, even if Asia’s rise continues unabated, it is wrong-and profoundly unAmerican-to regard this as a problem. Economic growth, like trade, is not a zero-sum game. The faster China and India grow, the more American goods they buy. And they are booming largely because they have adopted America’s ideas. America should regard their success as a tribute, not a threat, and celebrate in it.
当然，美国和崛起的亚洲之间的经济差距已经缩小。但是忧虑这一点是错误的，原因有两点：第一，即使以现状的增长率，中国的GDP要赶上美国也要四分之一个世纪；而且中国快速增长的经济引发的内部紧张会导致经济放缓；第二，即使亚洲的崛起不被削弱，把这个看做一个问题也是错误的–这非常不美国。经济增长就像贸易一样，并不是一个零和游戏。中国和印度增长地越快，他们购买的美国商品越多，而且由于他们适应了美国的思维，所以变得更加繁荣。美国应该把他们的成功看做是一种贡献，而非威胁，并要为之庆祝。

Many Americans, unfortunately, are unwilling to do so. Politicians seeking a scapegoat for America’s self-made problems too often point the finger at the growing power of once-poor countries, accusing them of stealing American jobs and objecting when they try to buy American companies. But if America reacts by turning in on itself-raising trade barriers and rejecting foreign investors-it risks exacerbating the economic troubles that lie behind its current funk.
很不幸的是，很多美国人不想这样做。政客们频繁地为美国自己制造的问题寻求替罪羔羊，他们将矛头指向曾经贫穷却正在发展中的国家，指责它们抢夺了美国人的工作，并且在这些国家购买美国公司时针锋相对。但是如果美国转身针对自己–提高贸易壁垒，拒绝外国投资者–它将冒着加剧存在于其当前恐慌背后的经济危机恶化的风险。

Everybody goes through bad times. Some learn from the problems they have caused themselves, and come back stronger. Some blame others, lash out and damage themselves further. America has had the wisdom to take the first course many times before. Let’s hope it does so again.
每个人都会经历艰难时期。有些人从他们自己引起的问题中汲取教训，并且变得更为强大。有些人却归咎于别人，对自己造成更深的冲击与毁灭。曾在之前很多次，美国都很明智地选择了前者，希望它再接再厉。

译者：云杉　http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=12869&extra=page%3D1&page=1